CT.gov Trial-Architecture Gap
2026-03-29 | full-registry ct.gov audit | plots, figures, and e156 bundle
Series
E156 Micro-Paper

CT.gov Trial-Architecture Gap

A 156-word micro-paper on how arm counts and intervention counts map onto missing results and hiddenness in older CT.gov studies.

1 arm
2 arms
10+ arms
1 intervention

Paper

Simple protocol structure should not be mistaken for transparent public reporting.

Reading note

How much does trial architecture shape ClinicalTrials.gov hiddenness once older closed interventional studies are grouped by arms and intervention counts? We analysed 249,507 eligible older closed interventional studies from the March 29, 2026 full-registry snapshot and grouped them by arm-group and intervention counts. The project compares two-year no-results rates, ghost-protocol rates, hiddenness scores, and phase-specific contrasts across simple and complex trial architectures. One-arm studies showed a 72.8 percent no-results rate, a 48.5 percent ghost-protocol rate, and a hiddenness score of 3.44. Studies with 10 or more arms fell to 55.3 percent no results, while one-intervention studies remained quieter than trials with larger intervention counts. Simpler-looking architectures are therefore not more transparent and often sit inside much quieter registry segments. That pattern holds in both early-phase work and later confirmatory programs with broader designs in practice today. Arm and intervention counts are registry structure fields and do not capture protocol nuance, adaptive features, or downstream analytic complexity.

1-arm no results
72.8%
Smallest architecture
2-arm no results
74.5%
Largest common architecture
10+ arms no results
55.3%
Large architecture
1-intervention no results
78.7%
Single intervention