CT.gov Completion-Delay Debt
2026-03-29 | full-registry ct.gov audit | plots, figures, and e156 bundle
Series
E156 Micro-Paper

CT.gov Completion-Delay Debt

A 156-word micro-paper on how submission-to-completion delay maps onto older-study missing results and ghost protocols on CT.gov.

0 years
1 year
2-3 years
6-10 years

Paper

A fast study cycle does not translate into a fast public record.

Reading note

Does ClinicalTrials.gov hiddenness fall as trials take longer from first submission to completion, or do short-cycle studies report just as well? We analysed 249,507 eligible older closed interventional studies from the March 29, 2026 full-registry snapshot and calculated submission-to-completion delay buckets. The project compares two-year no-results rates, ghost-protocol rates, full visibility, and purpose-specific contrasts across registration-to-completion intervals. Studies completed in the same calendar year they were first submitted showed an 85.7 percent no-results rate and a 54.1 percent ghost-protocol rate. Studies with a 6 to 10 year delay fell to 57.6 percent no results and 28.8 percent ghost protocols, with long-lag treatment studies also looking substantially cleaner. Fast-cycle studies therefore look most hidden, suggesting short operational timelines are not translating into faster public reporting. The contrast remains visible across treatment studies and other major purpose groups. Submission-to-completion lag is a registry proxy for operational duration and can reflect backfilled dates, protocol amendments, or changing trial mix.

0-year no results
85.7%
Fast-cycle bucket
1-year no results
72.6%
Near-fast bucket
2-3-year no results
66.0%
Middle benchmark
6-10-year ghosts
28.8%
Longer-cycle ghost rate