Submission readiness: NOT READY

Computed from this object's own state — a structural condition is unmet. This is not a fixed disclaimer: the conditions below are each testable, and a build in which they are met renders READY.

Qualifications that travel with the headline

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials

In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately?

In this section: Registration and administrative information (PROSPERO field set) · What this object claims to contain

Registration and administrative information (PROSPERO field set)

Table 1. Registration and administrative information (PROSPERO field set)
Review titleIntravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials
Review question (PICO)In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately?
PopulationAdults with HFrEF and iron deficiency (ferritin <100 ng/mL, or 100-299 with TSAT <20%)
InterventionIntravenous ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose
ComparatorPlacebo or standard of care
Background / rationaleNot recorded — this object holds no background field, and an introduction generated without one would be argument that no source in this review supports
Eligibility criteriaEligibility turns on population, intervention, comparator, route and outcome. The population is adults with heart failure and iron deficiency. The intervention is intravenous iron as ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose. The comparator is placebo OR usual care -- and the second half is load-bearing rather than generous: one contributing trial randomised against usual care, so a placebo-only criterion would exclude it, which is the defect this criterion was written to avoid. The outcome criterion is that the trial designates a CLINICAL-EVENT endpoint, or a registered functional primary that a regulator relies on. The word adjudicated is deliberately absent from this criterion, and the reason is not that adjudication is rare here: two contributing trials' staged sources state it plainly -- one abstract records masked adjudication of the outcomes, and one full text records an independent clinical endpoint committee adjudicating all hospitalisations and deaths. What cannot be shown is that every contributing trial's staged sources establish it, so a criterion demanding adjudication would be one this review could not show all its own members satisfy. An earlier version of this sentence said only one trial's sources state adjudication, which a later correction in this same object contradicted the moment it established the second -- a fix that created its own inconsistency by not sweeping back to the sentences that quantify over the fact it added. NO criterion refers to membership of a list.
Information sources15 source layers, listed on the Extraction tab
Search strategyThe executed strings, datetimes, filters and hit counts are on the Search tab
Study selection processA second independent screen was NOT run. No second independent screen was run for this topic. This is recorded as owed rather than described: the remedy is to RUN one, and writing a duplicate-screening sentence without one would be the defect this whole exercise exists to prevent.
Number of screenersOne. No second independent screen was run.
Data extraction itemsExtracted per trial on this object: registry id; primary publication; year; design; arms; per-arm counts and the published effect; the randomised total, separately from the analysed denominator. Fields not listed here were not extracted.
Outcomes and prioritisationRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio; Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio; Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio; Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio; A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio; Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres
Risk of bias methodRoB 2, per result, five domains — see the risk-of-bias table below
Synthesis methodsPooled under random-effects with the REML estimator. These methods were NOT prespecified before the search, and are not presented as though they were.
Subgroup analysesNot recorded — this object records no subgroup-analysis field at all, so whether any were prespecified is UNKNOWN -- which is not the same as none having been
Meta-bias assessmentNot recorded — no funnel, Egger or Peters value is held on this object, so no meta-bias assessment is claimed
Certainty assessmentGRADE, recorded for 6 outcome(s) (GRADE). The ratings are on the Certainty tab.
Confidence level95%
FundingNot recorded — no funding statement is recorded for this review
Competing interestsNot recorded — no declaration is recorded
Built2026-08-10
Schema2

What this object claims to contain

Full build, with a stated boundary on the search and with a rediscovery test behind it rather than an assertion that a search ran. Every randomised trial the staged search record enumerates -- the trials this review contains, the trials the two prior syntheses name in their own lists, and the ongoing trials at or above the enrolment threshold that record applies -- is either contributing here, or in one screening log with the eligibility criterion it fails and the quantity it reports instead, or listed as eligible and not yet reporting. What is not claimed, and what an earlier version of this sentence did claim, is a disposition for every hit the class-keyed query returns: that query returns far more records than this object classifies, and the staged record scopes its own enumeration by size rather than silently. A reader who wants the unenumerated tail should read the query in that record and run it. There is exactly one source list, `screening.records`; `screening.excluded` is a view computed from it at build time, row for row, so it cannot say anything the records do not. What this statement does not claim is a systematic multi-database search: none was run, the limitation is recorded in the screening block, and some of the screened-out records are characterised from a prior synthesis's table rather than from the trials' own reports. How many is deliberately not asserted in this sentence: it is computed from the records at build time into the screening block, and each of those rows says on itself that it rests on that table. An earlier version typed a count here that was wrong by one against the object's own array, which is what a prose copy of a countable fact does.

In this section: FAIR-HF NCT00520780 · EFFECT-HF NCT01394562 · Toblli 2007 · FERRIC-HF 2008 · PRACTICE-ASIA-HF 2018 · Dhoot 2020 · IRON-CRT 2021 · Oral iron protein succinylate NCT03344523

FAIR-HF NCT00520780

This review's decision: excluded.

An eligible population and an eligible intervention, excluded on outcome. Its primary endpoints are the self-reported Patient Global Assessment and NYHA functional class at week 24, reported as odds ratios for improvement. Those are the endpoints its own registry record registers as primary, which is what makes this a disposition about what the trial designated rather than about what it happened to report. It designates no CLINICAL-EVENT endpoint. An earlier version of this row went further and said it can contribute to none of this review's estimands, which is false and was the most substantive thing a gate leg found in this object. This review holds a WALK-DISTANCE estimand, and this trial designates a walk-distance secondary: its registry names exercise tolerance measured by the six-minute walk test among its key secondary efficacy objectives, and its abstract reports a significant improvement on that test. The reason it contributes nothing to that estimand is narrower and is now stated as what it is: the staged abstract prints no between-arm difference, dispersion term or interval for the walk distance, so there is no cell to extract. That is a limit on what the staged source prints, not a claim that the trial did not measure the endpoint.

  • outcome not this review's

What it actually reports: symptom and functional scales as odds ratios for improvement, and a six-minute walk distance reported as improved without an extractable between-arm difference

primary_oa: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19920054/

EFFECT-HF NCT01394562

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on outcome. Its primary is the change in peak oxygen consumption at 24 weeks, which is also what its registry record registers as the primary outcome, so the disposition rests on a design fact rather than on what the paper chose to report. Its own conclusion records that the effect on that endpoint 'was highly sensitive to the imputation strategy', which is a reason to read the trial carefully and not a reason for exclusion -- the exclusion is that it reports no clinical-event estimate this review holds.

  • outcome not this review's

What it actually reports: peak oxygen consumption, a continuous exercise-capacity endpoint

primary_oa: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28701470/

Toblli 2007

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on intervention. Graham's table records its iron as iron sucrose, which is neither of the two molecules this review's intervention criterion names. A randomised total of forty.

  • intervention not this review's

What it actually reports: not established here; the trial's own report is not staged

prior_meta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/

FERRIC-HF 2008

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on intervention, on the same basis as Toblli: Graham's table records iron sucrose. A randomised total of thirty-five, and not double-blind.

  • intervention not this review's

What it actually reports: not established here; the trial's own report is not staged

prior_meta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/

PRACTICE-ASIA-HF 2018

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on outcome. A randomised total of forty-nine over twelve weeks, which is too short and too small to designate a clinical-event endpoint, and Graham's table records no cardiovascular-mortality outcome for it.

  • outcome not this review's

What it actually reports: not established here; the trial's own report is not staged

prior_meta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/

Dhoot 2020

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on outcome. A randomised total of seventy over twelve weeks, in an age-restricted population, with no clinical-event endpoint.

  • outcome not this review's

What it actually reports: not established here; the trial's own report is not staged

prior_meta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/

IRON-CRT 2021

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on population and outcome. A randomised total of seventy-five, selected for having had cardiac resynchronisation therapy for more than six months, with a physiological rather than a clinical-event endpoint.

  • population not this review's
  • outcome not this review's

What it actually reports: not established here; the trial's own report is not staged

prior_meta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/

Oral iron protein succinylate NCT03344523

This review's decision: excluded.

Excluded on route. An oral iron preparation, which fails the intravenous criterion. It is logged because the corrected class-level search returns it -- a search keyed on 'iron' finds oral trials too, and an exclusion is the honest way to handle that rather than a narrower query that would start dropping intravenous trials again.

  • intervention not this review's

What it actually reports: an oral-iron comparison; no intravenous arm

registry: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03344523

In this section: Extraction — every datum linked to its source · Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent · Outcome hfh_cvd_first · Outcome hfh_recurrent · Outcome acm · Outcome hierarchical_primary · Outcome six_min_walk_24w · Extracted values, and where each came from · Recompute envelope — the headline against the rows shown · Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent · Outcome hfh_cvd_first · Outcome hfh_recurrent · Outcome acm · Absolute effect at a baseline risk the reader chooses · Risk of bias (RoB-2) · Overall judgement per trial · Inter-assessor agreement · References · Included studies · Regulatory documents · Methods and guidance · Sources · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio · What was measured · Pooled result · What this pool holds constant · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity · Does the answer depend on the pooling method? · Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio · Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio · What was measured · Pooled result · What this pool holds constant · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity · Does the answer depend on the pooling method? · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio · What was measured · Pooled result · What this pool holds constant · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity · Does the answer depend on the pooling method? · Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio · Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio · What was measured · Pooled result · What this pool holds constant · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity · Does the answer depend on the pooling method? · A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio · A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio · What was measured · Single cohort — no synthesis · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity · Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres · Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres · What was measured · Single cohort — no synthesis · Contributing trials · Endpoint definitions, read from the registry · Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool · The methods rule governing this decision · Leave-one-out sensitivity

Extraction — every datum linked to its source

Every per-trial value this review pools, with a link to the record it came from. Derived by ssot/projectors_evidence.py for any topic whose rows carry an NCT, a PMID, an ISRCTN or a source URL.

10 of 10 rows are linked to a source; 0 carry no identifier and are shown as unlinked rather than omitted.

Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
affirm-ahfNCT02937454nctRATE_RATIO 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level
ironmanNCT02642562nctRATE_RATIO 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level

Outcome hfh_cvd_first

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
affirm-ahfNCT02937454nctHR 0.8 (0.66 to 0.98)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level
fair-hf2NCT03036462nctHR 0.79 (0.63 to 0.99)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level

Outcome hfh_recurrent

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
affirm-ahfNCT02937454nctRATE_RATIO 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level
fair-hf2NCT03036462nctRATE_RATIO 0.8 (0.6 to 1.06)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level

Outcome acm

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
affirm-ahfNCT02937454nctHR 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level
confirm-hfNCT01453608nctHR 0.89 (0.41 to 1.93)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level

Outcome hierarchical_primary

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
heart-fidNCT03037931nctWIN_RATIO 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)—the ratio the source prints, stored on the log scale with the standard error its printed interval implies at that interval's own level

Outcome six_min_walk_24w

Every extracted value with a link to the record it was read from.
TrialSourceLinked viaEffectCounts as postedProvenance
confirm-hfNCT01453608nctMD 33 (11.4404 to 54.5596)—the least-squares mean difference the source prints, with an interval computed here from the standard error it prints beside it

Extracted values, and where each came from

One row per extracted value. Every row carries the value, the verbatim sentence it was read from, a resolvable link to the source, and whether the number was read or derived. Where any of those is absent the row says so rather than omitting the value.

Table 5. Extracted values, and where each came from
Trial / outcomeValue as extractedVerbatim source sentenceSource linksRead or derived
AFFIRM-AHF
hfh_cvd_recurrent
RATE_RATIO 0.79 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.01)
“The primary outcome was a composite of total hospitalisations for heart failure and cardiovascular death up to 52 weeks after randomisation”
“293 primary events (57·2 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 372 (72·5 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the placebo group (rate ratio [RR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·62-1·01, p=0·059)”
NCT02937454 · PMID 33197395 · source · primary_oa · registryREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
AFFIRM-AHF
hfh_cvd_first
HR 0.8 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.98)
“The composite of first heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular death occurred in 181 (32%) patients in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 209 (38%) in the placebo group (HR 0·80, 95% CI 0·66-0·98, p=0·030)”
NCT02937454 · PMID 33197395 · source · primary_oa · registryREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
AFFIRM-AHF
hfh_recurrent
RATE_RATIO 0.74 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.94)
“217 total heart failure hospitalisations occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 294 occurred in the placebo group (RR 0·74; 95% CI 0·58-0·94, p=0·013)”
NCT02937454 · PMID 33197395 · source · primary_oa · registryREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
AFFIRM-AHF
acm
HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.31)
“"title": "All-cause Mortality", "description": "Number of participants who died up to 52 weeks after randomisation"”
“"paramType": "Hazard Ratio (HR)", "paramValue": "0.99", "ciPctValue": "95", "ciNumSides": "TWO_SIDED", "ciLowerLimit": "0.75", "ciUpperLimit": "1.31"”
NCT02937454 · PMID 33197395 · source · registryREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
IRONMAN
hfh_cvd_recurrent
RATE_RATIO 0.82 (95% CI 0.66 to 1.02)
“The primary outcome was recurrent hospital admissions for heart failure and cardiovascular death, assessed in all validly randomly assigned patients.”
“336 primary endpoints (22·4 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the ferric derisomaltose group and 411 (27·5 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the usual care group (rate ratio [RR] 0·82 [95% CI 0·66 to 1·02]; p=0·070)”
NCT02642562 · PMID 36347265 · source · primary_oaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
FAIR-HF2
hfh_cvd_first
HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.99)
“cardiovascular death or first heart failure hospitalization (first primary outcome) occurred in 141 in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 166 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.63-0.99]; P = .04)”
“The end points would be considered statistically significant if they fulfilled at least 1 of the following conditions: (1) P ≤ .05 for all 3 of the end point comparisons, (2) P ≤ .025 for 2 of the end point comparisons, or (3) P ≤ .0167 for any of the 3 end point comparisons (Hochberg procedure).”
NCT03036462 · PMID 40159390 · source · primary_oaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
FAIR-HF2
hfh_recurrent
RATE_RATIO 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.06)
“The second primary outcome (total heart failure hospitalizations) occurred 264 times in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 320 times in the placebo group (rate ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.60-1.06]; P = .12).”
NCT03036462 · PMID 40159390 · source · primary_oaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
HEART-FID
hierarchical_primary
WIN_RATIO 1.1 (99% CI 0.99 to 1.23)
“The primary outcome was a hierarchical composite of death within 12 months after randomization, hospitalizations for heart failure within 12 months after randomization, or change from baseline to 6 months in the 6-minute walk distance. The significance level was set at 0.01.”
“(Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney P = 0.02; unmatched win ratio, 1.10; 99% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.23)”
NCT03037931 · PMID 37632463 · source · primary_oaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
CONFIRM-HF
acm
HR 0.89 (95% CI 0.41 to 1.93)
“Table 2 Hospitalizations and deaths (full-analysis set) End-point or event FCM ( n = 150) Placebo ( n = 151)”
“Death 12 12 (8.9) 14 14 (9.9) 0.89 (0.41– 1.93) 0.77”
“Table 2 Hospitalizations and deaths (full-analysis set) -- column header: End-point or event | FCM (n = 150) Total number of events | Incidence/100 patient-years at risk | Placebo (n = 151) Total number of events | Incidence/100 patient-years at risk | TIME TO FIRST EVENT HAZARD RATIO | 95% CI | P-value”
NCT01453608 · PMID 25176939 · source · primary_oaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and interval are stored as the source prints them, at the interval level the source prints them at. The log point and the log standard error are DERIVED here, the standard error from the width of the printed interval on the log scale using the multiplier that belongs to that interval's own level, and neither is claimed to appear in any source.
CONFIRM-HF
six_min_walk_24w
MD 33 (95% CI 11.4 to 54.6)
“The primary end-point was the change in 6-min-walk-test (6MWT) distance from baseline to Week 24.”
“Treatment with FCM significantly prolonged 6MWT distance at Week 24 (difference FCM vs. placebo: 33 ± 11 m, P = 0.002)”
NCT01453608 · PMID 25176939 · source · primary_oa · regulator_fdaREAD from the source as printed
The point estimate and the dispersion term are stored as the source prints them. The source prints NO confidence interval for this quantity, so the interval on this row is COMPUTED here from the printed standard error and is not claimed to appear in any document. That the printed term is a standard error rather than a standard deviation was checked rather than assumed: the ratio of the difference to it, read against a normal distribution, reproduces the p value the source prints beside it, which a standard deviation on this sample size would not.

Recompute envelope — the headline against the rows shown

Derived by ssot/recompute_envelope.py. The pooled number is recomputed from the per-trial rows this same page shows, so the arithmetic between the extraction table and the headline is checkable with no tool the reader does not already have.

Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent

Table 6. Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent
SourcePoint95% CI
stored on this page0.8066—
fixed effect, recomputed from the rows0.80660.6856 to 0.9488
DerSimonian-Laird, recomputed0.80660.6856 to 0.9488

AGREES -- the stored point lies between the fixed-effect and DerSimonian-Laird estimates computed from the rows this page shows.

Scale used: log. Declared estimator: REML.

It proves the ARITHMETIC between the extraction table and the headline. It cannot detect a wrong count, a swapped arm or a mis-specified model, because it re-runs the same inputs.

DerSimonian-Laird is biased at k below about ten and this project uses REML. DL is here only to WIDEN the envelope so a REML point falls inside it; it is never offered as the review's estimate.

Outcome hfh_cvd_first

Table 7. Outcome hfh_cvd_first
SourcePoint95% CI
stored on this page0.7957—
fixed effect, recomputed from the rows0.79570.6857 to 0.9233
DerSimonian-Laird, recomputed0.79570.6857 to 0.9233

AGREES -- the stored point lies between the fixed-effect and DerSimonian-Laird estimates computed from the rows this page shows.

Scale used: log. Declared estimator: REML.

It proves the ARITHMETIC between the extraction table and the headline. It cannot detect a wrong count, a swapped arm or a mis-specified model, because it re-runs the same inputs.

DerSimonian-Laird is biased at k below about ten and this project uses REML. DL is here only to WIDEN the envelope so a REML point falls inside it; it is never offered as the review's estimate.

Outcome hfh_recurrent

Table 8. Outcome hfh_recurrent
SourcePoint95% CI
stored on this page0.7645—
fixed effect, recomputed from the rows0.76450.636 to 0.9191
DerSimonian-Laird, recomputed0.76450.636 to 0.9191

AGREES -- the stored point lies between the fixed-effect and DerSimonian-Laird estimates computed from the rows this page shows.

Scale used: log. Declared estimator: REML.

It proves the ARITHMETIC between the extraction table and the headline. It cannot detect a wrong count, a swapped arm or a mis-specified model, because it re-runs the same inputs.

DerSimonian-Laird is biased at k below about ten and this project uses REML. DL is here only to WIDEN the envelope so a REML point falls inside it; it is never offered as the review's estimate.

Outcome acm

Table 9. Outcome acm
SourcePoint95% CI
stored on this page0.978—
fixed effect, recomputed from the rows0.9780.7523 to 1.2714
DerSimonian-Laird, recomputed0.9780.7523 to 1.2714

AGREES -- the stored point lies between the fixed-effect and DerSimonian-Laird estimates computed from the rows this page shows.

Scale used: log. Declared estimator: REML.

It proves the ARITHMETIC between the extraction table and the headline. It cannot detect a wrong count, a swapped arm or a mis-specified model, because it re-runs the same inputs.

DerSimonian-Laird is biased at k below about ten and this project uses REML. DL is here only to WIDEN the envelope so a REML point falls inside it; it is never offered as the review's estimate.

Absolute effect at a baseline risk the reader chooses

Derived by ssot/absolute_effect.py for any topic with a pooled ratio measure AND a declared indirectness argument. Where either is missing it DECLINES with a reason rather than emitting a table the review has not licensed — a ratio becomes an absolute effect only against a baseline risk, and a baseline risk belongs to a population.

Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent — NOT EMITTED. ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled IRR of 0.8066 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.
Outcome hfh_cvd_first — NOT EMITTED. ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled HR of 0.7957 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.
Outcome hfh_recurrent — NOT EMITTED. ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled IRR of 0.7645 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.
Outcome acm — NOT EMITTED. ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled HR of 0.978 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.

Risk of bias (RoB-2)

Variant:

Unit assessed: A result, not a study -- Handbook 8.2: 'risk of bias is assessed for a specific result'. Every judgement below names its outcome.

Assessor 1: (anthropic family). Assessor 2: (openai family).

Table 10. Risk of bias (RoB-2)
TrialResult assessedDomainAssessor 1 (anthropic)Assessor 2 (openai)Agreed
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datasome concernsno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernsLOWNO
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD2 D2_deviationsno informationno informationyes
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_dataLOWno informationNO
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD4 D4_measurementsome concernsLOWNO
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernsLOWNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datano informationno informationyes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernssome concernsyes
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD2 D2_deviationsno informationno informationyes
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_dataLOWno informationNO
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD4 D4_measurementsome concernsLOWNO
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernsLOWNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datano informationno informationyes
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernssome concernsyes
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD2 D2_deviationsno informationno informationyes
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datano informationno informationyes
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD4 D4_measurementsome concernsLOWNO
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernsLOWNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datano informationno informationyes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernssome concernsyes
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_datano informationno informationyes
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernssome concernsyes
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioD3 D3_missing_outcome_dataLOWno informationNO
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioD4 D4_measurementLOWLOWyes
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernssome concernsyes
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresD1 D1_randomisationsome concernsno informationNO
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresD2 D2_deviationsLOWno informationNO
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresD3 D3_missing_outcome_datasome concernsno informationNO
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresD4 D4_measurementsome concernsLOWNO
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresD5 D5_selection_of_resultsome concernsLOWNO

Overall judgement per trial

Table 11. Overall judgement per trial
TrialResult assessedAssessor 1 (anthropic)Assessor 2 (openai)Agreed
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratiosome concernsno overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)NO
IRONMANRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)no overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)yes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)some concernsNO
FAIR-HF2Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)no overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)yes
AFFIRM-AHFRecurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)some concernsNO
FAIR-HF2Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)no overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)yes
AFFIRM-AHFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)some concernsNO
CONFIRM-HFTime to death from any cause, as a hazard rationo overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)some concernsNO
HEART-FIDA hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratiosome concernssome concernsyes
CONFIRM-HFChange in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metressome concernsno overall judgement reached — this assessor answered “no information”, which RoB 2 defines as a response to a signalling question and not as one of the three overall categories (low, some concerns, high)NO

Inter-assessor agreement

This assessment is DUAL — two assessors from different model families, the second asked blind. The agreement rate is withheld pending adjudication. Both readers were given this review’s decision rule; an earlier version of this sentence said the blinding had withheld it, and that was wrong. What the 50 domain comparison(s) show is a reading difference that runs in OPPOSITE directions by domain — on domains 1 to 3 the second assessor more often declines to judge at all, and on domains 4 and 5 it more often judges low. A single agreement rate averages those two behaviours into one number that describes neither. Both assessors’ per-result judgements are shown in the table above, unadjudicated, and neither is this review’s finding. No adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results.

Sources

Table 12. Sources
LayerSourceHow it was obtained
Regulator: FDA approved labelInjectafer (ferric carboxymaltose) US prescribing information
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2025/203565s027lbl.pdf
Discovered from the product's Drugs@FDA overview page and staged as text. There IS a heart-failure indication and it is narrow: iron deficiency in adults with NYHA class II or III heart failure to improve exercise capacity. Its clinical studies section rests on a single trial and a single endpoint. A scan of the whole document for hazard, rate ratio, odds ratio, risk ratio, win ratio and relative risk returns nothing, so this layer holds no event estimate to check anything against.
Regulator: FDA approved label, the other moleculeMonoferric (ferric derisomaltose) US prescribing information
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2024/208171s003lbl.pdf
Staged so that the absence is a fact with a date behind it. The string heart failure does not occur in this label at all; the indication is iron deficiency anaemia only. This is the regulator layer for whichever trial in this object used this molecule, which is a single trial.
Regulator: EMA, the only document this class hasIntravenous iron-containing medicinal products, Article 31 referral annex
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/referrals/intravenous-iron-containing-medicinal-products
Neither product is centrally authorised, so no European Public Assessment Report exists to check. That is demonstrated from EMA's own published medicine register (medicines-output-medicines-report_en.xlsx, retrieved 2026-08-29, 2741 rows, sha256 19c1959900136167...), which lists none of ferric carboxymaltose, iron sucrose, ferric derisomaltose or iron isomaltoside while listing every positive control asked of it (Forxiga, Jardiance, Ferriprox; bare 'iron' returns 27 rows, so the search is live). An earlier version of this note gave the reason as 'the canonical epar paths for both were probed and both returned not-found' -- a failed lookup, which is equally consistent with a wrong URL. Staged at sources/.txt. This referral concerns hypersensitivity risk and assesses no efficacy endpoint.
Prior synthesis (abstract and full text, open)Graham et al. Intravenous iron in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency: an updated meta-analysis. Eur J Heart Fail 2023.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/
Abstract and full text staged. Its two headline rows carry different effect measures -- a rate ratio and an odds ratio -- and its own characteristics table names every trial it includes, which is what the screening log diffs against. Its search closed before the most recent trials here published, and it says so itself by naming their registry accessions as studies it expects to report later.
Prior synthesis (abstract, open)Ponikowski et al. Efficacy of ferric carboxymaltose in heart failure with iron deficiency: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Eur Heart J 2023.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632415/
Abstract staged. An individual-patient-data synthesis of ferric carboxymaltose trials whose stated patient total is exactly the sum of the randomised totals of several trials held here, which is what identifies its set. Both its co-primary endpoints are rate ratios from a negative binomial model, so it benchmarks the recurrent-event families and nothing else.
Record of what the search does and does not findPrior-synthesis and completeness search record, 2026-08-10
https://clinicaltrials.gov/
Staged because this object's completeness statement rests on a rediscovery test rather than on an assertion that a search ran. It records the query that misses a trial this review contains, why it misses it, the corrected query, and the result of running both.
Record of the artefact this object replacesDefect probe of the live page this rebuild overwrites
https://mahmood726-cyber.github.io/rapidmeta-finerenone/IV_IRON_HF_REVIEW.html
The page was fetched and its definitions quoted, so that statements about what the old generator did are checkable rather than repeated. Nothing in this object is derived from it; it exists so the claims corrected entries have evidence behind them.
Primary paper (abstract, open)Ponikowski et al. Ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after acute heart failure. Lancet 2020.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/
Abstract staged from PubMed. It prints the primary rate ratio, the time-to-first hazard ratio and the total hospitalisation rate ratio as three separate quantities, which is why this trial appears in three syntheses here with a different number in each.
Primary paper (abstract, open)Kalra et al. Intravenous ferric derisomaltose in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency in the UK (IRONMAN). Lancet 2022.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36347265/
Abstract staged from PubMed. It is the only trial here whose comparator is usual care rather than placebo, and the only one using ferric derisomaltose.
Primary paper (abstract, open)Anker et al. Intravenous Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure With Iron Deficiency: The FAIR-HF2 DZHK05 Randomized Clinical Trial. Jama 2025.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40159390/
Abstract staged from PubMed. Its PubMed Central record returns no body element, so the full text is not staged and no claim here rests on it. The abstract prints all three co-primary endpoints with their intervals, their P values and the Hochberg rule, which is everything this object stores from the trial.
Primary paper (abstract, open)Mentz et al. Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure with Iron Deficiency. N Engl J Med 2023.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632463/
Abstract staged from PubMed; the full text is paywalled and the article is not in PubMed Central, which was checked rather than assumed. The abstract prints the win ratio with its 99% interval and the component counts, and prints no estimate for the trial's top secondary endpoint.
Primary paper (abstract and full text, open)Ponikowski et al. Beneficial effects of long-term intravenous iron therapy with ferric carboxymaltose in patients with symptomatic heart failure and iron deficiency. Eur Heart J 2015.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/
Abstract staged from PubMed. It carries this trial's own primary endpoint, the difference between arms on it and the dispersion term beside that difference, which is everything the walk-distance row rests on. It does not carry the hospitalisations-and-deaths table, so the other row on this trial cites the full-text entry instead.
Primary paper (full text, open)Ponikowski et al. Beneficial effects of long-term intravenous iron therapy with ferric carboxymaltose in patients with symptomatic heart failure and iron deficiency. Eur Heart J 2015, PubMed Central full text.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/
Staged as its own entry in this object's source block, separately from the abstract of the same paper, because the two are different files and a row must cite the file that supports it. An earlier version of this note called that a separate registry entry, which in an object that uses the word registry throughout for the trial registry reads as the wrong layer entirely; this is a journal full text. This is the layer that is load-bearing for the death row: the analysis-set denominators, the whole hospitalisations-and-deaths table with its effect estimates, and the marking of several of its composite rows as post hoc are in the full text and not in the abstract.
RegistryClinicalTrials.gov records for all five contributing trials
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02937454
Every contributing trial's record is staged under its own accession name; this entry names the one with the richest posted results. Only a minority of them post results at all. The richest posts every effect estimate with its interval; the largest posts the components of its hierarchical primary as counts with no analysis block on any of them; the rest post no results, and each cell's cascade says which case its trial is in.
Registry: posted protocol and statistical analysis planHEART-FID protocol and statistical analysis plan, version 1.3
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03037931
Staged as text and read. It is the only layer that settles why an interval on this trial's top secondary endpoint would be a 96% interval, and it settles it by prespecification rather than by inference. It carries no results.

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio

What was measured

Table 13. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo, except on the recurrent-composite estimand where one contributing trial randomised against usual care
Estimandrecurrent_event_rate — a recurrent-event rate model over first and subsequent events, reported by each contributing trial as a rate ratio
Unit of analysisevent, with each participant contributing every qualifying event they have rather than only their first
Case definitionevery occurrence, first and subsequent, of a hospitalisation for heart failure or a cardiovascular death. Both contributing trials designate this as their own primary endpoint, and their abstracts do not word the counting the same way: one names the endpoint as total hospitalisations for heart failure and cardiovascular death, the other as recurrent hospital admissions for heart failure and cardiovascular death, and only the second of those says first-and-subsequent on its face. What settles it for both is the registered text of each trial's own primary outcome: one record states that the total included first and recurrent events, the other that the analysis will include first and recurrent hospitalisations. An earlier version of this field credited both abstracts with naming the recurrent counting explicitly, which is the shape of over-reading this batch has been caught by before, and the registry readings are what make the claim true rather than nearly true. What they do not share is the comparator, the molecule or the masking, and the uniformity table carries every one of those axes.
Windowfrom randomisation to the end of each trial's own follow-up
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalecombined on the log scale; ESTIMAND UNIFORMITY NOT ESTABLISHED -- the contributing trials have not been shown to measure the same quantity

Pooled result

RATE_RATIO 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488), 95% interval

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio. random, estimator REML, k = 2.

τ² 0 · I² 0% · Q 0.0499 on 1 df

Favours: the intervention (lower is better)

Computed from Q and its single degree of freedom. With two trials this statistic has almost no power to detect heterogeneity, so a low value is consistent both with agreement and with not being able to tell, and it is reported with that caveat rather than as reassurance. What the statistic cannot see at all are the dimensions the uniformity table records, because those are differences in the question each trial answered rather than in its answer.

A single effect measure, a single outcome concept and a single unit of analysis, across trials that share no participant and no control group.

What this pool holds constant

Table 14. What this pool holds constant
DimensionAcross the pooled cohortsIf it differs, why it is crossed anyway
effect measureidenticalBoth contributing trials report this endpoint as a rate ratio over recurrent events and no conversion is performed.
outcome definitionidenticalBoth count hospitalisations for heart failure and cardiovascular death, first and subsequent, and both say so in their own words on their own rows.
comparatordiffersThis is the largest thing this pool crosses and it is easy to miss. One trial randomised against a matching saline placebo. The other randomised against usual care, with no placebo infusion at all. A review whose eligibility demanded placebo would have excluded the second trial outright. The staged search record notes that the corrected query deliberately carries NO comparator requirement for exactly this reason. An earlier version of this row called that one of two defects the record exists to document, which over-reads it: the record exists to document a DRUG-NAME-keyed query failing to rediscover a contributing trial, and the comparator point is a note it carries alongside. The eligibility criterion is written to admit both comparator types.
blindingdiffersOne trial is double-blind, with the treatments administered in black syringes by personnel taking no study assessments. The other is open label with masked adjudication of the outcomes -- a blinded-endpoint design, not a blinded-treatment one, and its registry record classifies it as masked to the outcome assessor only. What this object can and cannot say about adjudication is worth stating exactly, because it is the natural thing to reach for here and the sources do not support it: the open-label trial's own abstract says its outcomes were adjudicated under masking, and nothing staged for the double-blind trial -- not its abstract, not its registry record -- uses the word at all. So masked adjudication is established for one of the two and is not claimed for the other, and an earlier version of this row said the endpoint was adjudicated in both.
drugdiffersThe two trials tested different molecules. The pooled value is an average over the intravenous-iron class as these two trials tested it, and it is not an estimate for either preparation on its own. With two trials the leave-one-out table simply returns each trial, so a reader who wants a single-molecule answer should read the rows.
populationdiffersOne trial enrolled patients hospitalised for acute heart failure and randomised them before discharge; the other enrolled ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure. The ejection fraction ceilings also differ. This is diversity within the question rather than a mismatch with it, and it is recorded here rather than offered as an explanation of a heterogeneity statistic that has almost no power to detect anything.
endpoint rank within its own trialidenticalThis endpoint is the primary of both contributing trials, so this pool inherits none of the selective-reporting exposure a secondary endpoint carries. That is true of this estimand and of no other pooled estimand in this object.
follow up lengthdiffersOne trial follows participants for a fixed year from randomisation; the other ran to a median of well over two years. Each trial's own window is on its row.
analysis populationdiffersOne trial's analysis set is smaller than its randomised total and the other's is not. Each row stores its own denominators and says which they are.
trial level significanceidenticalNeither contributing trial reached the conventional level on this endpoint and both trials' own intervals include the null. The pooled interval does not. That is a legitimate meta-analytic result and it is also the single most misquotable sentence in this object, so it is recorded on this row, on both cells as a structured field, and in the scope block.

Contributing trials

Table 15. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
RATE_RATIO (95% CI), or events Source of this cell
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454 · the trial's own primary endpoint
558 / 550
This trial's full analysis set, which is smaller than its randomised total: 1132 were randomised, treatment started in 1110, and 1108 had at least one post-randomisation value. The 558 and 550 stored here are that set, and it is the population every estimate on this trial's rows was computed in. The two figures are both real and they are not interchangeable, so the randomised total is stored on the trial and the analysed pair is stored on each row.
0.79 (0.62 to 1.01)
on the log scale: -0.2357 (standard error 0.1245)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
The primary outcome was a composite of total hospitalisations for heart failure and cardiovascular death up to 52 weeks after randomisation
293 primary events (57·2 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 372 (72·5 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the placebo group (rate ratio [RR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·62-1·01, p=0·059)
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: this trial's analysis set excludes participants in whom treatment never started or who had no post-randomisation value, and every row here is computed in that set. Arm-level event counts are deliberately absent from the arms, because this trial's primary endpoint counts recurrent events and a per-arm participant count would not be the numerator of the stored ratio.
IRONMAN
NCT02642562 · the trial's own primary endpoint
569 / 568
All validly randomly assigned patients, 569 and 568, which is the population the trial states for its primary outcome and which sums to its randomised total. This is the only contributing trial in this object whose analysis set and randomised total coincide and whose registry record posts no results to check that against; the coincidence is read from the publication.
0.82 (0.66 to 1.02)
on the log scale: -0.1985 (standard error 0.1111)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
The primary outcome was recurrent hospital admissions for heart failure and cardiovascular death, assessed in all validly randomly assigned patients.
336 primary endpoints (22·4 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the ferric derisomaltose group and 411 (27·5 per 100 patient-years) occurred in the usual care group (rate ratio [RR] 0·82 [95% CI 0·66 to 1·02]; p=0·070)
Randomised, as the trial reports. The arm sizes below sum to it exactly. Arm-level event counts are absent for the same reason as on the other trial in this pool: the endpoint counts recurrent events, and the sources print event rates rather than participant counts.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 16. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454
PRIMARYHF Hospitalizations and CV DeathThe composite of recurrent HF hospitalizations and CV death up to 52 weeks after randomization. Total hospitalisations included first and recurrent events. If a participant was hospitalised for heart failure and died within 24 h from any cardiovascular event, this was counted as one event.up to 52 weeks after randomization
IRONMAN
NCT02642562
PRIMARYCV mortality or hospitalisation for worsening heart failure (analysis will include first and recurrent hospitalisations)no description is recorded in this registry fieldMinimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruited

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 17. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Pool the trials that report this estimand in this form, and combine the result with no other estimand in this object

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.2.4, 10.3, 10.8, 10.10.1, 10.10.2, 10.10.4, 10.10.4.4, 10.10.4.5, 10.14

Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 fix the axes on which eligibility turns -- population, intervention and comparator -- and every screening decision names which of them it falls on, which is why the screening log has a criterion column rather than a verdict column. Section 3.2.4 is cited for the caution it gives against making eligibility depend on which outcomes a study reported, and because this review must be honest that it applies an outcome criterion at eligibility anyway: most of its screened-out records fail on that axis. The distinction the review rests on, and which a reader is entitled to reject, is between what a trial reported and what it designated. The caution is about letting selective reporting decide membership; the criterion here turns on the endpoint each trial registered as its primary before any result existed. That is checkable for the screened trials whose registry records are staged -- one registered a self-reported global assessment and functional class, the other a change in peak oxygen consumption -- and it is not checkable for those characterised from a prior synthesis's table, whose rows say so on themselves. The object carries six outcomes rather than admitting only the trials that report one of them, and no trial is screened out for reporting a quantity in the wrong form. What this review does do, and an earlier version of this passage denied it, is exclude a trial that designates an endpoint this review holds but publishes no extractable estimate of it: the screened trial with a registered walk-distance secondary is out on the clinical-event criterion while the review carries a walk-distance estimand. That is a stricter rule than 3.2.4 requires, it is the review's own, and it is declared here rather than dressed as the Handbook's. Its cost is visible on the row, which quotes what that trial reports. Section 10.3 gives the method by which every pool in this object is computed: log ratios combined by generic inverse variance. What licenses the refusal to combine across the estimands is that they fall under different sections -- a rate over recurrent events is governed by 10.8, on counts and rates, while a time-to-first analysis is governed by 10.9, and a mean difference in metres is governed by 10.5.2 and shares no scale with either. Section 10.10.1 distinguishes clinical and methodological diversity from statistical heterogeneity, which is why the uniformity table sits beside the statistic rather than being replaced by it: at two trials the statistic is nearly powerless, and the things these trials differ on are things it cannot see. Section 10.10.4 governs the model and the between-study variance estimator, 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default, and 10.10.4.5 is why a more conservative interval is reported beside the ordinary one at this number of studies. Section 10.14 is the authority for the sensitivity analyses.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

Whether the pooled estimate depends on either single trial, and whether it depends on the choice of between-study variance estimator and interval method.

Table 18. Leave-one-out sensitivity
Cohort omittedkRATE_RATIO (95% CI)
affirm-ahf10.82 (0.6596 to 1.019)
ironman10.79 (0.619 to 1.008)

With two trials a leave-one-out fit IS the other trial, and this table says so rather than presenting single-trial rows as though they were pooled sensitivity results. Read it as what it is: the two contributing trials' own estimates side by side, each with the interval it carries alone.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14 for sensitivity analyses generally. Section 10.10.4.4 governs the estimator half: it records that methods other than DerSimonian and Laird estimate the between-study variance better and that restricted maximum likelihood is the current default. Section 10.10.4.5 is cited for the interval comparison and not for the estimator comparison; it concerns interpretation with few studies and the method it compares is the confidence interval.

Does the answer depend on the pooling method?

Section 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default and that estimators other than DerSimonian and Laird perform better; that is the whole of the authority for running this comparison. Nothing in the Handbook instructs a review to run it at a particular number of studies, and running it here is a choice made under section 10.14 because with two trials the choice is plausibly influential.

Table 19. Does the answer depend on the pooling method?
Between-study varianceIntervalSummary (95% CI)τ²
DerSimonian-Laird (DL)ordinary (Wald)0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488)0
Paule-Mandel (PM)ordinary (Wald)0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)ordinary (Wald)0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ)0.8066 (0.2814 to 2.312)0

The three variance estimators agree, because with the between-study variance estimated at zero there is nothing for them to disagree about; at two studies that agreement is close to uninformative and is reported as arithmetic rather than as corroboration. The two interval methods are the informative half. On this estimand they disagree about whether the null is excluded: the ordinary interval excludes it and the more conservative one does not. Neither is presented as deciding the question. What the disagreement establishes is how little two trials constrain a random-effects average, and it is carried into the imprecision domain, which is downgraded.

Restricted maximum likelihood with the ordinary interval, because section 10.10.4.4 records it as the current default and as a better estimator than DerSimonian and Laird. The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman interval is reported beside it with the floor on its scale factor applied, so it can widen the ordinary interval and can never come out narrower than it. It is not presented as the interval to prefer: section 10.10.4.5 says the opposite is possible, that with only two or three studies such intervals can be excessively wide and an ordinary interval may be preferable, and it asks for the comparison rather than for a winner.

Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio

Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio

What was measured

Table 20. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo
Estimandtime_to_first — Cox proportional hazards on the time to a first event
Unit of analysisparticipant, with the time to the first component event
Case definitionthe first occurrence, per participant, of a cardiovascular death or a hospitalisation for heart failure. This is not the recurrent composite with a different model fitted to it: it is a different endpoint counted a different way, and one of the two contributing trials reports both, with different numbers, which is the clearest demonstration available that the two are not interchangeable. The two rows do not stand in the same relation to their trials: for one it is a designated secondary and for the other it is the first of three co-primary endpoints, and that asymmetry is on the uniformity table.
Windowfrom randomisation to the end of each trial's own follow-up
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalecombined on the log scale; ESTIMAND UNIFORMITY NOT ESTABLISHED -- the contributing trials have not been shown to measure the same quantity

Pooled result

HR 0.7957 (0.6857 to 0.9233), 95% interval

Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio. random, estimator REML, k = 2.

τ² 0 · I² 0% · Q 0.0067 on 1 df

Favours: the intervention (lower is better)

Computed from Q and its single degree of freedom. With two trials this statistic has almost no power to detect heterogeneity, so a low value is consistent both with agreement and with not being able to tell, and it is reported with that caveat rather than as reassurance. What the statistic cannot see at all are the dimensions the uniformity table records, because those are differences in the question each trial answered rather than in its answer.

A single effect measure, a single outcome concept and a single unit of analysis, across trials that share no participant and no control group.

What this pool holds constant

Table 21. What this pool holds constant
DimensionAcross the pooled cohortsIf it differs, why it is crossed anyway
effect measureidenticalBoth contributing trials report this endpoint as a Cox hazard ratio for the time to a first event, and no conversion is performed.
outcome definitionidenticalBoth count a cardiovascular death or a first hospitalisation for heart failure, whichever comes first.
comparatoridenticalBoth randomised against a saline placebo.
blindingidenticalBoth registry records classify the trial as masked to participants, investigators and outcome assessors -- the same classification on both, read off both records rather than inferred from the word placebo. An earlier version of this row said only one of the two records listed the outcome assessor, which reading the second record refutes.
drugidenticalBoth contributing trials tested the same molecule, which is what this axis is about and which already distinguishes this pool from the recurrent-composite one: nothing here averages across preparations. An earlier version of this row recorded the axis as differing while its own text said the molecule was the same -- it was carrying a dosing-schedule difference on the drug row, where a reader scanning the status column would read it as a pool crossing two molecules. The schedule difference is real and now has its own row below.
dosing schedulediffersThe molecule is shared and the schedule is not. One trial dosed by the extent of iron deficiency across the earlier part of its follow-up; the other gave an initial dose followed by maintenance dosing at fixed intervals for as long as a participant remained in the trial. Each schedule is on its own arm label. This is a genuine crossed dimension and it is pooled across because both schedules are of the same agent given intravenously to correct the same deficiency, which is the intervention this review asks about.
populationdiffersOne trial enrolled patients hospitalised for acute heart failure and randomised them before discharge; the other enrolled ambulatory outpatients. The ejection fraction ceilings differ too.
endpoint rank within its own trialdiffersThe rows are not alike on this axis. For one trial this is a designated secondary endpoint. For the other it is the first of three co-primary endpoints governed by a multiplicity procedure. A pool of a secondary endpoint with a co-primary is a legitimate quantity and it is not the same kind of evidence as a pool of two primaries, which is why this row says so rather than reporting the axis as shared.
follow up lengthdiffersOne trial follows a fixed year from randomisation; the other ran to a median a little over that. Each row carries its own.
analysis populationdiffersOne trial's analysis set is smaller than its randomised total and the other's equals it.
trial level significancediffersOne row's trial declares its result not significant under a multiplicity procedure while that row's own interval excludes the null. The other row's trial states no testing hierarchy for its secondary endpoints, so this object records that row as undecided rather than deciding for it. The two rows therefore differ on this axis in kind, not just in value.

Contributing trials

Table 22. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
HR (95% CI), or events Source of this cell
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454 · a designated secondary endpoint of the trial
not stated / not stated0.8 (0.66 to 0.98)
on the log scale: -0.2231 (standard error 0.1008)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
The composite of first heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular death occurred in 181 (32%) patients in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 209 (38%) in the placebo group (HR 0·80, 95% CI 0·66-0·98, p=0·030)
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: this trial's analysis set excludes participants in whom treatment never started or who had no post-randomisation value, and every row here is computed in that set. Arm-level event counts are deliberately absent from the arms, because this trial's primary endpoint counts recurrent events and a per-arm participant count would not be the numerator of the stored ratio.
FAIR-HF2
NCT03036462 · the FIRST of the trial's three co-primary endpoints, whose joint significance is governed by a multiplicity procedure
558 / 547
The 558 and 547 the trial reports for its two arms, which sum to its randomised total of 1105. No participant randomised in this trial is absent from the analyses stored here.
0.79 (0.63 to 0.99)
on the log scale: -0.2357 (standard error 0.1153)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
cardiovascular death or first heart failure hospitalization (first primary outcome) occurred in 141 in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 166 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.63-0.99]; P = .04)
The end points would be considered statistically significant if they fulfilled at least 1 of the following conditions: (1) P ≤ .05 for all 3 of the end point comparisons, (2) P ≤ .025 for 2 of the end point comparisons, or (3) P ≤ .0167 for any of the 3 end point comparisons (Hochberg procedure).
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report, and the arm sizes below sum to it exactly. Arm-level event counts are absent because one of this trial's two rows here counts recurrent events, and printing participant counts beside a rate ratio would invite the reading this object exists to prevent.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 23. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454
SECONDARYComposite of HF Hospitalisations or CV DeathAnalysed as time to first event at 52 weeks after randomisation. The number of participants with at least one HF Hospitalisation or CV Death is presented below.at 52 weeks after randomisation
FAIR-HF2
NCT03036462
PRIMARY -- the first of three, under a Hochberg procedureTime-to-first event of CV death or HF hospitalisationShow that treatment of patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and iron deficiency (ID) with i.v. iron (Ferric Carboxymaltose, FCM) versus placebo (i.v. NaCl) can extend the time-to-first-event of heart failure hospitalisations and cardiovascular (CV) death.The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years.

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 24. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Pool the trials that report this estimand in this form, and combine the result with no other estimand in this object

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.2.4, 10.3, 10.9, 10.10.1, 10.10.2, 10.10.4, 10.10.4.4, 10.10.4.5, 10.14

Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 fix the axes on which eligibility turns -- population, intervention and comparator -- and every screening decision names which of them it falls on, which is why the screening log has a criterion column rather than a verdict column. Section 3.2.4 is cited for the caution it gives against making eligibility depend on which outcomes a study reported, and because this review must be honest that it applies an outcome criterion at eligibility anyway: most of its screened-out records fail on that axis. The distinction the review rests on, and which a reader is entitled to reject, is between what a trial reported and what it designated. The caution is about letting selective reporting decide membership; the criterion here turns on the endpoint each trial registered as its primary before any result existed. That is checkable for the screened trials whose registry records are staged -- one registered a self-reported global assessment and functional class, the other a change in peak oxygen consumption -- and it is not checkable for those characterised from a prior synthesis's table, whose rows say so on themselves. The object carries six outcomes rather than admitting only the trials that report one of them, and no trial is screened out for reporting a quantity in the wrong form. What this review does do, and an earlier version of this passage denied it, is exclude a trial that designates an endpoint this review holds but publishes no extractable estimate of it: the screened trial with a registered walk-distance secondary is out on the clinical-event criterion while the review carries a walk-distance estimand. That is a stricter rule than 3.2.4 requires, it is the review's own, and it is declared here rather than dressed as the Handbook's. Its cost is visible on the row, which quotes what that trial reports. Section 10.3 gives the method by which every pool in this object is computed: log ratios combined by generic inverse variance. What licenses the refusal to combine across the estimands is that they fall under different sections -- a rate over recurrent events is governed by 10.8, on counts and rates, while a time-to-first analysis is governed by 10.9, and a mean difference in metres is governed by 10.5.2 and shares no scale with either. Section 10.10.1 distinguishes clinical and methodological diversity from statistical heterogeneity, which is why the uniformity table sits beside the statistic rather than being replaced by it: at two trials the statistic is nearly powerless, and the things these trials differ on are things it cannot see. Section 10.10.4 governs the model and the between-study variance estimator, 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default, and 10.10.4.5 is why a more conservative interval is reported beside the ordinary one at this number of studies. Section 10.14 is the authority for the sensitivity analyses.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

Whether the pooled estimate depends on either single trial, and whether it depends on the choice of between-study variance estimator and interval method.

Table 25. Leave-one-out sensitivity
Cohort omittedkHR (95% CI)
affirm-ahf10.79 (0.6302 to 0.9903)
fair-hf210.8 (0.6565 to 0.9748)

With two trials a leave-one-out fit IS the other trial, and this table says so rather than presenting single-trial rows as though they were pooled sensitivity results. Read it as what it is: the two contributing trials' own estimates side by side, each with the interval it carries alone.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14 for sensitivity analyses generally. Section 10.10.4.4 governs the estimator half: it records that methods other than DerSimonian and Laird estimate the between-study variance better and that restricted maximum likelihood is the current default. Section 10.10.4.5 is cited for the interval comparison and not for the estimator comparison; it concerns interpretation with few studies and the method it compares is the confidence interval.

Does the answer depend on the pooling method?

Section 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default and that estimators other than DerSimonian and Laird perform better; that is the whole of the authority for running this comparison. Nothing in the Handbook instructs a review to run it at a particular number of studies, and running it here is a choice made under section 10.14 because with two trials the choice is plausibly influential.

Table 26. Does the answer depend on the pooling method?
Between-study varianceIntervalSummary (95% CI)τ²
DerSimonian-Laird (DL)ordinary (Wald)0.7957 (0.6857 to 0.9233)0
Paule-Mandel (PM)ordinary (Wald)0.7957 (0.6857 to 0.9233)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)ordinary (Wald)0.7957 (0.6857 to 0.9233)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ)0.7957 (0.3033 to 2.087)0

The three variance estimators agree, because with the between-study variance estimated at zero there is nothing for them to disagree about; at two studies that agreement is close to uninformative and is reported as arithmetic rather than as corroboration. The two interval methods are the informative half. On this estimand they disagree about whether the null is excluded: the ordinary interval excludes it and the more conservative one does not. Neither is presented as deciding the question. What the disagreement establishes is how little two trials constrain a random-effects average, and it is carried into the imprecision domain, which is downgraded.

Restricted maximum likelihood with the ordinary interval, because section 10.10.4.4 records it as the current default and as a better estimator than DerSimonian and Laird. The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman interval is reported beside it with the floor on its scale factor applied, so it can widen the ordinary interval and can never come out narrower than it. It is not presented as the interval to prefer: section 10.10.4.5 says the opposite is possible, that with only two or three studies such intervals can be excessively wide and an ordinary interval may be preferable, and it asks for the comparison rather than for a winner.

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio

What was measured

Table 27. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo
Estimandrecurrent_event_rate — a recurrent-event rate model over first and subsequent hospitalisations, reported by each contributing trial as a rate ratio
Unit of analysishospitalisation, with each participant contributing every admission they have
Case definitionevery occurrence, first and subsequent, of a hospitalisation for heart failure, with NO death component of any kind. This estimand exists because an adversary brief instructed that one of these two values be pooled with the composite primaries of two other trials, which would have merged an endpoint containing cardiovascular death with one that does not. Both contributing trials describe this endpoint in words that name hospitalisations and nothing else, and so does the registered outcome text in both registry records -- one describing it as hospitalisations analysed as a recurrent event, the other as a rate of total first and recurrent events of hospitalisations for heart failure. Neither publication and neither registry record mentions a death component, so the separation rests on four independent readings rather than on one.
Windowfrom randomisation to the end of each trial's own follow-up
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalecombined on the log scale; ESTIMAND UNIFORMITY NOT ESTABLISHED -- the contributing trials have not been shown to measure the same quantity

Pooled result

RATE_RATIO 0.7645 (0.636 to 0.9191), 95% interval

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio. random, estimator REML, k = 2.

τ² 0 · I² 0% · Q 0.1677 on 1 df

Favours: the intervention (lower is better)

Computed from Q and its single degree of freedom. With two trials this statistic has almost no power to detect heterogeneity, so a low value is consistent both with agreement and with not being able to tell, and it is reported with that caveat rather than as reassurance. What the statistic cannot see at all are the dimensions the uniformity table records, because those are differences in the question each trial answered rather than in its answer.

A single effect measure, a single outcome concept and a single unit of analysis, across trials that share no participant and no control group.

What this pool holds constant

Table 28. What this pool holds constant
DimensionAcross the pooled cohortsIf it differs, why it is crossed anyway
effect measureidenticalBoth contributing trials report this endpoint as a rate ratio over recurrent hospitalisations.
outcome definitionidenticalBoth count hospitalisations for heart failure and nothing else. Establishing that was the single most consequential reading in this object: an adversary brief instructed that one of these values be pooled with two composite primaries that include cardiovascular death.
comparatoridenticalBoth randomised against a saline placebo.
blindingidenticalBoth registry records classify the trial as masked to participants, investigators and outcome assessors.
drugidenticalBoth contributing trials tested the same molecule, exactly as on the first-event estimand these two trials also share. An earlier version of this row recorded the axis as differing on the strength of a schedule difference, which is a different axis and now has its own row.
dosing schedulediffersThe same schedule difference as on the first-event estimand these two trials also share, and pooled across for the same reason.
populationdiffersThe same population difference as on the first-event estimand, because this estimand draws on the same two trials: one enrolled at discharge after an acute admission and the other enrolled ambulatory outpatients.
endpoint rank within its own trialdiffersFor one trial this is a designated secondary endpoint; for the other it is the second of three co-primary endpoints. The asymmetry is the same in shape as on the first-event estimand and it is stated here rather than cross-referenced, because a reader meeting this pool alone should not have to find it elsewhere.
follow up lengthdiffersA fixed year from randomisation in one trial and a longer median in the other. On a RECURRENT-event rate this matters more than it does on a time-to-first analysis: a longer window gives each participant more opportunity to contribute further events, and the two trials' rates are therefore accumulated over different exposure.
analysis populationdiffersOne trial's analysis set is smaller than its randomised total and the other's equals it.
trial level significancediffersOne row's trial declares this endpoint not significant under its multiplicity procedure, and that row's own interval includes the null as well. The other row is recorded as undecided, because its trial states no hierarchy for secondary endpoints.

Contributing trials

Table 29. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
RATE_RATIO (95% CI), or events Source of this cell
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454 · a designated secondary endpoint of the trial
not stated / not stated0.74 (0.58 to 0.94)
on the log scale: -0.3011 (standard error 0.1232)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
217 total heart failure hospitalisations occurred in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 294 occurred in the placebo group (RR 0·74; 95% CI 0·58-0·94, p=0·013)
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: this trial's analysis set excludes participants in whom treatment never started or who had no post-randomisation value, and every row here is computed in that set. Arm-level event counts are deliberately absent from the arms, because this trial's primary endpoint counts recurrent events and a per-arm participant count would not be the numerator of the stored ratio.
FAIR-HF2
NCT03036462 · the SECOND of the trial's three co-primary endpoints, under the same multiplicity procedure
not stated / not stated0.8 (0.6 to 1.06)
on the log scale: -0.2231 (standard error 0.1452)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
The second primary outcome (total heart failure hospitalizations) occurred 264 times in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 320 times in the placebo group (rate ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.60-1.06]; P = .12).
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report, and the arm sizes below sum to it exactly. Arm-level event counts are absent because one of this trial's two rows here counts recurrent events, and printing participant counts beside a rate ratio would invite the reading this object exists to prevent.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 30. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454
SECONDARYHF HospitalisationsHF hospitalisations up to 52 weeks after randomisation analysed as recurrent event.up to 52 weeks after randomisation
FAIR-HF2
NCT03036462
PRIMARY -- the second of three, under a Hochberg procedureRate of total (first and recurrent) events of hospitalisations for heart failure (HF)Show that treatment of patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and iron deficiency (ID) with i.v. iron (Ferric Carboxymaltose, FCM) versus placebo (i.v. NaCl) reduces the rate of recurrent events of heart failure hospitalisations.—

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 31. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Pool the trials that report this estimand in this form, and combine the result with no other estimand in this object

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.2.4, 10.3, 10.8, 10.10.1, 10.10.2, 10.10.4, 10.10.4.4, 10.10.4.5, 10.14

Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 fix the axes on which eligibility turns -- population, intervention and comparator -- and every screening decision names which of them it falls on, which is why the screening log has a criterion column rather than a verdict column. Section 3.2.4 is cited for the caution it gives against making eligibility depend on which outcomes a study reported, and because this review must be honest that it applies an outcome criterion at eligibility anyway: most of its screened-out records fail on that axis. The distinction the review rests on, and which a reader is entitled to reject, is between what a trial reported and what it designated. The caution is about letting selective reporting decide membership; the criterion here turns on the endpoint each trial registered as its primary before any result existed. That is checkable for the screened trials whose registry records are staged -- one registered a self-reported global assessment and functional class, the other a change in peak oxygen consumption -- and it is not checkable for those characterised from a prior synthesis's table, whose rows say so on themselves. The object carries six outcomes rather than admitting only the trials that report one of them, and no trial is screened out for reporting a quantity in the wrong form. What this review does do, and an earlier version of this passage denied it, is exclude a trial that designates an endpoint this review holds but publishes no extractable estimate of it: the screened trial with a registered walk-distance secondary is out on the clinical-event criterion while the review carries a walk-distance estimand. That is a stricter rule than 3.2.4 requires, it is the review's own, and it is declared here rather than dressed as the Handbook's. Its cost is visible on the row, which quotes what that trial reports. Section 10.3 gives the method by which every pool in this object is computed: log ratios combined by generic inverse variance. What licenses the refusal to combine across the estimands is that they fall under different sections -- a rate over recurrent events is governed by 10.8, on counts and rates, while a time-to-first analysis is governed by 10.9, and a mean difference in metres is governed by 10.5.2 and shares no scale with either. Section 10.10.1 distinguishes clinical and methodological diversity from statistical heterogeneity, which is why the uniformity table sits beside the statistic rather than being replaced by it: at two trials the statistic is nearly powerless, and the things these trials differ on are things it cannot see. Section 10.10.4 governs the model and the between-study variance estimator, 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default, and 10.10.4.5 is why a more conservative interval is reported beside the ordinary one at this number of studies. Section 10.14 is the authority for the sensitivity analyses.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

Whether the pooled estimate depends on either single trial, and whether it depends on the choice of between-study variance estimator and interval method.

Table 32. Leave-one-out sensitivity
Cohort omittedkRATE_RATIO (95% CI)
affirm-ahf10.8 (0.6019 to 1.063)
fair-hf210.74 (0.5813 to 0.9421)

With two trials a leave-one-out fit IS the other trial, and this table says so rather than presenting single-trial rows as though they were pooled sensitivity results. Read it as what it is: the two contributing trials' own estimates side by side, each with the interval it carries alone.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14 for sensitivity analyses generally. Section 10.10.4.4 governs the estimator half: it records that methods other than DerSimonian and Laird estimate the between-study variance better and that restricted maximum likelihood is the current default. Section 10.10.4.5 is cited for the interval comparison and not for the estimator comparison; it concerns interpretation with few studies and the method it compares is the confidence interval.

Does the answer depend on the pooling method?

Section 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default and that estimators other than DerSimonian and Laird perform better; that is the whole of the authority for running this comparison. Nothing in the Handbook instructs a review to run it at a particular number of studies, and running it here is a choice made under section 10.14 because with two trials the choice is plausibly influential.

Table 33. Does the answer depend on the pooling method?
Between-study varianceIntervalSummary (95% CI)τ²
DerSimonian-Laird (DL)ordinary (Wald)0.7645 (0.636 to 0.9191)0
Paule-Mandel (PM)ordinary (Wald)0.7645 (0.636 to 0.9191)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)ordinary (Wald)0.7645 (0.636 to 0.9191)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ)0.7645 (0.2318 to 2.522)0

The three variance estimators agree, because with the between-study variance estimated at zero there is nothing for them to disagree about; at two studies that agreement is close to uninformative and is reported as arithmetic rather than as corroboration. The two interval methods are the informative half. On this estimand they disagree about whether the null is excluded: the ordinary interval excludes it and the more conservative one does not. Neither is presented as deciding the question. What the disagreement establishes is how little two trials constrain a random-effects average, and it is carried into the imprecision domain, which is downgraded.

Restricted maximum likelihood with the ordinary interval, because section 10.10.4.4 records it as the current default and as a better estimator than DerSimonian and Laird. The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman interval is reported beside it with the floor on its scale factor applied, so it can widen the ordinary interval and can never come out narrower than it. It is not presented as the interval to prefer: section 10.10.4.5 says the opposite is possible, that with only two or three studies such intervals can be excessively wide and an ordinary interval may be preferable, and it asks for the comparison rather than for a winner.

Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio

Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio

What was measured

Table 34. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo
Estimandtime_to_first — Cox proportional hazards on the time to death
Unit of analysisparticipant, with the time to death from any cause
Case definitiondeath from any cause, counted once per participant as a time to event. It is deliberately distinct from cardiovascular death, which one contributing trial reports and which is held nowhere in this object: an all-cause row and a cardiovascular row are different outcomes, and a value from one standing in a field belonging to the other is the defect class this batch has met most often. The contributing rows come from different layers -- one from a registry results record and one from a publication's own table -- which the uniformity table records as a dimension the pool crosses.
Windowfrom randomisation to the end of each trial's own follow-up
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalecombined on the log scale; ESTIMAND UNIFORMITY NOT ESTABLISHED -- the contributing trials have not been shown to measure the same quantity

Pooled result

HR 0.978 (0.7523 to 1.271), 95% interval

Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio. random, estimator REML, k = 2.

τ² 0 · I² 0% · Q 0.0643 on 1 df

Favours: neither arm; the interval spans the null (lower is better)

Computed from Q and its single degree of freedom. With two trials this statistic has almost no power to detect heterogeneity, so a low value is consistent both with agreement and with not being able to tell, and it is reported with that caveat rather than as reassurance. What the statistic cannot see at all are the dimensions the uniformity table records, because those are differences in the question each trial answered rather than in its answer.

A single effect measure, a single outcome concept and a single unit of analysis, across trials that share no participant and no control group.

What this pool holds constant

Table 35. What this pool holds constant
DimensionAcross the pooled cohortsIf it differs, why it is crossed anyway
effect measureidenticalBoth contributing rows are Cox hazard ratios for the time to death from any cause.
outcome definitionidenticalBoth count death from any cause, with no cause restriction on either row.
comparatoridenticalBoth randomised against a saline placebo.
blindingidenticalBoth trials are placebo-controlled and both registry records classify them as masked to participants and investigators. The two records are not worded identically -- one additionally lists the outcome assessor -- and that is a difference in what a record says rather than one this object can show in how the trials were run, so it is stated here rather than smoothed out or promoted into a difference on the axis.
drugidenticalBoth trials tested the same molecule.
populationdiffersOne trial enrolled patients hospitalised for acute heart failure; the other enrolled ambulatory symptomatic outpatients with elevated natriuretic peptides.
source layerdiffersThis axis appears on no other pool in this object. One row is read from a registry results record and the other from a publication's own table, and the reason is not a preference: the first trial's publication does not report this outcome at all, and the second trial's registry record posts no results at all. Each cell's cascade says which layer holds it and why the others do not, and the difference is carried here because a reader comparing two rows should be able to see that they come from different kinds of document.
endpoint rank within its own trialdiffersNeither row is a designated primary, and the two are not the same kind of non-primary either. One is classified by its own registry as an other-prespecified outcome and is not reported in that trial's publication at all. The other IS a designated secondary endpoint: its trial's methods list it by name among the secondary outcome-related endpoints assessed, and its events were adjudicated by an independent clinical endpoint committee. An earlier version of this row called it an undesignated table row, which mistook where the number is printed for what the trial designated. Both rows still carry more selective-reporting exposure than a primary would, and the risk-of-bias domain says so.
follow up lengthidenticalBoth trials counted deaths over a fixed year from randomisation. This is the only pooled estimand in this object whose two rows share a follow-up window.
analysis populationidenticalBoth rows use a full analysis set that is smaller than the trial's randomised total. What they share is the kind of set, which is what this axis is about; they do not share the reason for the shortfall, and this row no longer implies that they do. On the smaller trial a handful of participants had no post-baseline efficacy assessment. On the larger one the shortfall has two components -- participants in whom study treatment was never started, and then participants with no post-randomisation value -- and the first is the larger of the two. Each trial's own figures are on its record.
trial level significanceidenticalNeither row approaches a conventional level and neither endpoint carries a formal testing level at all, so on this axis the two rows are alike.

Contributing trials

Table 36. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
HR (95% CI), or events Source of this cell
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454 · an other-prespecified outcome, as the registry's own record classifies it, and not an endpoint the publication reports
not stated / not stated0.99 (0.75 to 1.31)
on the log scale: -0.01005 (standard error 0.1423)
Registry:
"title": "All-cause Mortality", "description": "Number of participants who died up to 52 weeks after randomisation"
"paramType": "Hazard Ratio (HR)", "paramValue": "0.99", "ciPctValue": "95", "ciNumSides": "TWO_SIDED", "ciLowerLimit": "0.75", "ciUpperLimit": "1.31"
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: this trial's analysis set excludes participants in whom treatment never started or who had no post-randomisation value, and every row here is computed in that set. Arm-level event counts are deliberately absent from the arms, because this trial's primary endpoint counts recurrent events and a per-arm participant count would not be the numerator of the stored ratio.
CONFIRM-HF
NCT01453608 · a DESIGNATED secondary outcome-related endpoint of the trial, listed among them by name in the trial's own methods and adjudicated by its independent clinical endpoint committee
not stated / not stated0.89 (0.41 to 1.93)
on the log scale: -0.1165 (standard error 0.3952)
Primary paper (full text, open):
Table 2 Hospitalizations and deaths (full-analysis set) End-point or event FCM ( n = 150) Placebo ( n = 151)
Death 12 12 (8.9) 14 14 (9.9) 0.89 (0.41– 1.93) 0.77
Table 2 Hospitalizations and deaths (full-analysis set) -- column header: End-point or event | FCM (n = 150) Total number of events | Incidence/100 patient-years at risk | Placebo (n = 151) Total number of events | Incidence/100 patient-years at risk | TIME TO FIRST EVENT HAZARD RATIO | 95% CI | P-value
Enrolled and randomised. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: a small number of participants were excluded from the full analysis set for having no post-baseline efficacy assessment, and every row here is computed in that set. Both figures are real and they are not interchangeable, which is the subject of a correction this object carries. Arm-level event counts are absent from the arms because this trial contributes one continuous endpoint and one time-to-event endpoint, neither of which has a two-by-two table behind the stored value.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 37. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
AFFIRM-AHF
NCT02937454
OTHER PRE-SPECIFIED, as the registry's own record classifies it; this trial's publication does not report this outcome at allAll-cause MortalityNumber of participants who died up to 52 weeks after randomisation—
CONFIRM-HF
NCT01453608
a designated secondary outcome-related endpoint, adjudicated by the trial's independent endpoint committeeall-cause death, analysed as time to first eventThe incidence of all-cause death was similar in both groups—

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 38. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Pool the trials that report this estimand in this form, and combine the result with no other estimand in this object

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.2.4, 10.3, 10.9, 10.10.1, 10.10.2, 10.10.4, 10.10.4.4, 10.10.4.5, 10.14

Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 fix the axes on which eligibility turns -- population, intervention and comparator -- and every screening decision names which of them it falls on, which is why the screening log has a criterion column rather than a verdict column. Section 3.2.4 is cited for the caution it gives against making eligibility depend on which outcomes a study reported, and because this review must be honest that it applies an outcome criterion at eligibility anyway: most of its screened-out records fail on that axis. The distinction the review rests on, and which a reader is entitled to reject, is between what a trial reported and what it designated. The caution is about letting selective reporting decide membership; the criterion here turns on the endpoint each trial registered as its primary before any result existed. That is checkable for the screened trials whose registry records are staged -- one registered a self-reported global assessment and functional class, the other a change in peak oxygen consumption -- and it is not checkable for those characterised from a prior synthesis's table, whose rows say so on themselves. The object carries six outcomes rather than admitting only the trials that report one of them, and no trial is screened out for reporting a quantity in the wrong form. What this review does do, and an earlier version of this passage denied it, is exclude a trial that designates an endpoint this review holds but publishes no extractable estimate of it: the screened trial with a registered walk-distance secondary is out on the clinical-event criterion while the review carries a walk-distance estimand. That is a stricter rule than 3.2.4 requires, it is the review's own, and it is declared here rather than dressed as the Handbook's. Its cost is visible on the row, which quotes what that trial reports. Section 10.3 gives the method by which every pool in this object is computed: log ratios combined by generic inverse variance. What licenses the refusal to combine across the estimands is that they fall under different sections -- a rate over recurrent events is governed by 10.8, on counts and rates, while a time-to-first analysis is governed by 10.9, and a mean difference in metres is governed by 10.5.2 and shares no scale with either. Section 10.10.1 distinguishes clinical and methodological diversity from statistical heterogeneity, which is why the uniformity table sits beside the statistic rather than being replaced by it: at two trials the statistic is nearly powerless, and the things these trials differ on are things it cannot see. Section 10.10.4 governs the model and the between-study variance estimator, 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default, and 10.10.4.5 is why a more conservative interval is reported beside the ordinary one at this number of studies. Section 10.14 is the authority for the sensitivity analyses.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

Whether the pooled estimate depends on either single trial, and whether it depends on the choice of between-study variance estimator and interval method.

Table 39. Leave-one-out sensitivity
Cohort omittedkHR (95% CI)
affirm-ahf10.89 (0.4102 to 1.931)
confirm-hf10.99 (0.7491 to 1.308)

With two trials a leave-one-out fit IS the other trial, and this table says so rather than presenting single-trial rows as though they were pooled sensitivity results. Read it as what it is: the two contributing trials' own estimates side by side, each with the interval it carries alone.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14 for sensitivity analyses generally. Section 10.10.4.4 governs the estimator half: it records that methods other than DerSimonian and Laird estimate the between-study variance better and that restricted maximum likelihood is the current default. Section 10.10.4.5 is cited for the interval comparison and not for the estimator comparison; it concerns interpretation with few studies and the method it compares is the confidence interval.

Does the answer depend on the pooling method?

Section 10.10.4.4 records restricted maximum likelihood as the current default and that estimators other than DerSimonian and Laird perform better; that is the whole of the authority for running this comparison. Nothing in the Handbook instructs a review to run it at a particular number of studies, and running it here is a choice made under section 10.14 because with two trials the choice is plausibly influential.

Table 40. Does the answer depend on the pooling method?
Between-study varianceIntervalSummary (95% CI)τ²
DerSimonian-Laird (DL)ordinary (Wald)0.978 (0.7523 to 1.271)0
Paule-Mandel (PM)ordinary (Wald)0.978 (0.7523 to 1.271)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)ordinary (Wald)0.978 (0.7523 to 1.271)0
restricted maximum likelihood (REML)Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ)0.978 (0.1785 to 5.358)0

The three variance estimators agree, because with the between-study variance estimated at zero there is nothing for them to disagree about; at two studies that agreement is close to uninformative and is reported as arithmetic rather than as corroboration. The two interval methods are the informative half. On this estimand they agree, because both include the null. That agreement is not reassurance about the result -- the result is that this estimand favours neither arm.

Restricted maximum likelihood with the ordinary interval, because section 10.10.4.4 records it as the current default and as a better estimator than DerSimonian and Laird. The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman interval is reported beside it with the floor on its scale factor applied, so it can widen the ordinary interval and can never come out narrower than it. It is not presented as the interval to prefer: section 10.10.4.5 says the opposite is possible, that with only two or three studies such intervals can be excessively wide and an ordinary interval may be preferable, and it asks for the comparison rather than for a winner.

A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio

A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio

What was measured

Table 41. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo
Estimandhierarchical_win_ratio — an unmatched win-ratio comparison over a prespecified hierarchy, tested by a rank test
Unit of analysisPair of participants, one from each arm, classified as a win, a loss or a tie at the first level of the hierarchy that separates them
Case definitiona prespecified hierarchy applied to every possible pair of one treated and one control participant: death within the first year, then hospitalisations for heart failure within the first year, then the change in walk distance at the half-year mark, with the first level that separates the pair deciding it. The resulting ratio counts wins against losses, so values above one favour treatment -- the opposite of every other ratio in this object. It is reported by a single trial, at an interval level that is not the level everything else here uses, and it is not pooled with anything.
Windowdeath and hospitalisations over the first year, and the walk-distance component at the half-year mark
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalereported on the log scale; nothing is pooled on this outcome

Single cohort — no synthesis

WIN_RATIO 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23), 99% interval

Favours: neither arm; the interval spans the null (higher is better)

Only one contributing trial reports this estimand, and the form of the quantity would prevent pooling even if a second did: it counts pairs rather than participants or events, its direction of benefit is inverted relative to every other ratio here, and its interval is not at the level the others use.

Contributing trials

Table 42. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
WIN_RATIO (99% CI), or events Source of this cell
HEART-FID
NCT03037931 · the trial's own primary endpoint
1532 / 1533
The 1532 and 1533 the trial reports, summing to its randomised total of 3065, and they are the denominators the win ratio itself is computed over. The registry does not post that pair on every component it publishes, and an earlier version of this field said it did. Two of the three components -- the deaths and the heart-failure hospitalisations -- post 1532 and 1533 against an intention-to-treat population. The WALK-DISTANCE component posts 1285 and 1295, against a population its own record describes as the participants within that set who contributed walk-test data. That is worth stating rather than smoothing: the third level of this trial's hierarchy rests on roughly two hundred and fifty fewer participants per arm than the two levels above it, which is a fact about how a hierarchical endpoint accumulates evidence and is invisible in the win ratio it produces.
1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)
99% interval
on the log scale: 0.09531 (standard error 0.04213)
Primary paper (abstract, open):
The primary outcome was a hierarchical composite of death within 12 months after randomization, hospitalizations for heart failure within 12 months after randomization, or change from baseline to 6 months in the 6-minute walk distance. The significance level was set at 0.01.
(Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney P = 0.02; unmatched win ratio, 1.10; 99% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.23)
Randomised, as the trial and its registry record both report, and the arm sizes below sum to it exactly. Arm-level event counts are absent from the arms because this trial's endpoint here is a hierarchical comparison over pairs of participants, so no per-arm count is the numerator of the stored ratio; the component counts the trial does report are on the cell's quotes.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 43. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
HEART-FID
NCT03037931
PRIMARY, all threeNumber of Deaths; Number of Hospitalizations for Heart Failure; Change in 6MWT (Six Minute Walk Test) Distance -- the registry posts these as three separate primary outcome measures, and the publication reports them combined as one hierarchical composite analysed by unmatched win ratioThe number of participants who died out of the total treated group. / The number of participants who were hospitalized for heart failure out of the total treated group. / The change in meters walked at baseline compared to 6 months later.1 year for death and hospitalisation; 6 months for the walk distance

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 44. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Do not pool. One trial in this review reports this endpoint in this form, so the result is that trial's own estimate, presented as such

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.4

There is no meta-analysis here and none is implied. No other contributing trial reports a hierarchical composite of any kind -- and the scope of that word matters, because one of the eligible trials that has not yet reported does designate a hierarchical composite primary, which this object records in its own block. An earlier version said no other trial in this review reports one, which the object's own eligible-but-not-contributing list contradicted. A win ratio could not be entered into any pool in this object even if a second one existed here: it counts pairs rather than participants or events, its direction of benefit is inverted relative to every other ratio here, and its interval is not at the level the other outcomes use. Three independent reasons, any one of which is sufficient. Section 3.2.4 is also why this outcome is carried at all rather than dropped for being reported once: dropping it would make the review's content depend on what the studies chose to report, which is the practice that section cautions against.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

none; there is one study

Not run. With one study there is nothing to leave out, and a table here would be manufacturing reassurance.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14. A leave-one-out analysis of one study leaves nothing, and an estimator comparison with no between-study variance to estimate is not a sensitivity analysis. Neither is run, and this field says so rather than presenting an empty table.

Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres

Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres

What was measured

Table 45. What was measured
Comparatora saline placebo
Estimandcontinuous_change_from_baseline — a least-squares mean difference between arms in the change from baseline, from the trial's own repeated-measures model
Unit of analysisparticipant, with the change in metres walked
Case definitionthe difference between arms in how far a participant can walk in six minutes, measured as a change from baseline to the trial's primary timepoint and estimated by the trial's own model. Values above zero favour treatment. This is a continuous quantity in metres and it shares no scale with any ratio in this object, so it is not pooled with anything and could not be. It is also the only endpoint here that a regulator relies on, and the only cell on which two document layers disagree.
Windowfrom baseline to the trial's primary timepoint
Analysis populationeach contributing trial's own analysis set, which on some of them is smaller than the randomised total and on others equals it; each cell stores its own denominators and states which of the two it is
Effect scalereported on the linear scale; nothing is pooled on this outcome

Single cohort — no synthesis

MD 33 (11.44 to 54.56)

Favours: the intervention (higher is better)

Only one staged source prints an extractable between-arm difference for this endpoint, and that -- not the form of the quantity -- is why nothing is pooled. A mean difference in metres on a common scale is poolable by generic inverse variance like any other, so a later lane that obtains the full texts of the other trials registering a walk-distance endpoint could pool this estimand properly. An earlier version of this field said the form would prevent it, which is stricter than the Handbook, false of a mean difference, and contradicted by this object's own handbook block three fields away.

Contributing trials

Table 46. Contributing trials
TrialAnalysed
treatment / control
MD (95% CI), or events Source of this cell
CONFIRM-HF
NCT01453608 · the trial's own primary endpoint
150 / 151
This trial's full analysis set, 150 and 151, which is not its randomised total. 304 patients were enrolled and 152 were randomised to each arm; three were excluded from the full analysis set for having no post-baseline efficacy assessment. The pair stored here is the one printed in the paper's own baseline and outcome tables and in the United States label, and it is the population every estimate on this trial's rows was computed in. An adversary brief asserted that 150 and 151 match neither arm of this trial; reading the full text refutes that, and the correction is carried in this object's corrections block. Note also, because it is a real inconsistency between two layers and not a typing error here: the label calls 150 and 151 the numbers randomised, while the paper calls them the numbers analysed out of 152 and 152 randomised.
33 (11.44 to 54.56)Primary paper (abstract and full text, open):
The primary end-point was the change in 6-min-walk-test (6MWT) distance from baseline to Week 24.
Treatment with FCM significantly prolonged 6MWT distance at Week 24 (difference FCM vs. placebo: 33 ± 11 m, P = 0.002)
Enrolled and randomised. The arm sizes below do not sum to it: a small number of participants were excluded from the full analysis set for having no post-baseline efficacy assessment, and every row here is computed in that set. Both figures are real and they are not interchangeable, which is the subject of a correction this object carries. Arm-level event counts are absent from the arms because this trial contributes one continuous endpoint and one time-to-event endpoint, neither of which has a two-by-two table behind the stored value.

The contributing trials share no participant and no control group.

Endpoint definitions, read from the registry

What each trial COUNTED, in its own registry record's words, before anything here was pooled. A sentence saying what HAPPENED is not a sentence saying what was COUNTED, and only the second one licenses a pool. Read from the registry on 2026-08-17. Follow the registration link to disagree with any row.

Table 47. Endpoint definitions, read from the registry
TrialRank in its own trial Registered outcome measure Description, verbatimAnalysis set / window
CONFIRM-HF
NCT01453608
PRIMARYChange in six minute walk test from baseline to week 24no description is recorded in this registry field24 weeks

Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool

Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.

Table 48. Named on this review, contributing nothing to its pool
TrialWhy it contributes nothing What the registry holds
NCT07467668
NCT07467668
no results posted and no publication—
NCT06929806
NCT06929806
no results posted. Worth naming specifically: its comparator is no intravenous iron rather than a placebo, and its primary endpoint is cardiovascular death and worsening heart failure, so when it reports it will contribute to a composite estimand here.—
NCT05759078
NCT05759078
no results posted. Its primary endpoint is the time to death from any cause, which is an estimand this object already holds and which currently rests on the smallest trial pair here.—
NCT07686692
NCT07686692
not yet recruiting. Its population is heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, which no contributing trial here enrolled -- every one of them set an ejection-fraction ceiling -- and its primary is a hierarchical composite, which makes it the second trial in this object to designate one and the only one besides the contributing trial that reports it. The ejection-fraction range of the trials characterised from a prior synthesis's table is not established here, so the claim is scoped to the contributing set rather than to every trial this object names.—

The methods rule governing this decision

Decision: Do not pool. One trial in this review reports this endpoint in this form, so the result is that trial's own estimate, presented as such

Cochrane Handbook sections: 3.2.4, 6.5.1.1, 10.5.2

There is no meta-analysis here and none is implied. This estimand rests on one trial and the reason is not that the others did not measure walk distance -- an earlier version of this field said only one other trial did, and a gate leg refuted it from the staged registries. Most of the trials this review touches register a walk-distance endpoint. Two register it as a primary -- the trial contributing here, and the trial whose hierarchical composite has walk distance as its third level. Two more register it as a secondary, one of them at two separate timepoints. A trial in the screening log registers it among its key secondary efficacy objectives and reports it as improved. What is scarce is not the measurement, it is the extractable cell: only one staged source prints a between-arm difference with a dispersion term for this endpoint. Every other walk-distance record staged here is either an endpoint named without a between-arm estimate, or an ingredient of a hierarchical composite rather than an endpoint reported in its own right. So this is a limit on what the staged evidence prints, not a statement about what the field measured, and a later lane that obtains those full texts could pool this estimand properly. Beyond that, a mean difference in metres shares no scale with any ratio in this object and no arithmetic exists that would combine them. Section 3.2.4 is also why this outcome is carried at all rather than dropped for being reported once: dropping it would make the review's content depend on what the studies chose to report, which is the practice that section cautions against.

Leave-one-out sensitivity

none; there is one study

Not run. With one study there is nothing to leave out, and a table here would be manufacturing reassurance.

Cochrane Handbook version 6.5.1, section 10.14. A leave-one-out analysis of one study leaves nothing, and an estimator comparison with no between-study variance to estimate is not a sensitivity analysis. Neither is run, and this field says so rather than presenting an empty table.

In this section: Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio · Forest plot · Visual abstract · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression · Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio · Forest plot · Visual abstract · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio · Forest plot · Visual abstract · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression · Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio · Forest plot · Visual abstract · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression · A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio · Forest plot · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression · Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres · Forest plot · Risk of bias, both assessors · GOSH · Trial-sequential analysis · Meta-regression

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01) ironman 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 104 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 7e4f7e58090a70ca), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01) ironman 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 104 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 2ee773bad0648d39), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w1.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w1.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01) ironman 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 102 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 2f19a7a7ea0cc5ca), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w2.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w2.tiff, 12,129 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted. Ranges not offered because they would crop the data: 0.7 to 1.3.

Visual abstract

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately? no difference RATE_RATIO 0.807 95% CI 0.686 to 0.949 The interval excludes no difference. 2 trials, 2,245 participants. Outcome: Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio. GRADE certainty: Pending. Leave-one-out with two trials: each refit is simply the other trial, so this is not robustness evidence. 0 of 2 single-trial refits exclude no difference.

⬇ SVG (vector) 3 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x2100 395 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: c80d188a50e739ac), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — visual-abstract.eps, 5 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — visual-abstract.tiff, 27,685 KB.

Projected from the canonical object, so it carries the same k, the same pooled estimate and the same interval as the paper and cannot drift from them. The interval is drawn to scale against the no-difference line, which it EXCLUDES: 0.686 to 0.949, with no difference at 1.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 2: the whole subset space is 3 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 81 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 9091822e99aa8781), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 2 trials is 3 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 2 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 2 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: e35ec93bbc9a1c10), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 2 a meta-regression would be fitted on 2 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.8 (0.66 to 0.98) fair-hf2 0.79 (0.63 to 0.99) Pooled (HR)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 92 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 3f38352bf6a26a54), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.8 (0.66 to 0.98) fair-hf2 0.79 (0.63 to 0.99) Pooled (HR)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 92 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 9bd1a90832dfb64a), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w1.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w1.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.8 (0.66 to 0.98) fair-hf2 0.79 (0.63 to 0.99) Pooled (HR)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 90 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: fd58c474888d3d77), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w2.eps, 3 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w2.tiff, 12,129 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted. Ranges not offered because they would crop the data: 0.7 to 1.3.

Visual abstract

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately? no difference HR 0.796 95% CI 0.686 to 0.923 The interval excludes no difference. 2 trials, 2,213 participants. Outcome: Time to a FIRST cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio. GRADE certainty: Pending. Leave-one-out with two trials: each refit is simply the other trial, so this is not robustness evidence. 2 of 2 single-trial refits exclude no difference.

⬇ SVG (vector) 3 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x2100 389 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 5c7f475d957814d3), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — visual-abstract.eps, 5 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — visual-abstract.tiff, 27,685 KB.

Projected from the canonical object, so it carries the same k, the same pooled estimate and the same interval as the paper and cannot drift from them. The interval is drawn to scale against the no-difference line, which it EXCLUDES: 0.686 to 0.923, with no difference at 1.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 2: the whole subset space is 3 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 81 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 9091822e99aa8781), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 2 trials is 3 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 2 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 2 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: e35ec93bbc9a1c10), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 2 a meta-regression would be fitted on 2 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) fair-hf2 0.8 (0.6 to 1.06) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 2 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 103 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: b2ec077bcb46f8d7), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 4 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) fair-hf2 0.8 (0.6 to 1.06) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 2 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 103 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: bad377113b22479a), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w1.eps, 4 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w1.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) fair-hf2 0.8 (0.6 to 1.06) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)

⬇ SVG (vector) 2 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 102 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: ac13436c7996ed30), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w2.eps, 4 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w2.tiff, 12,129 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted. Ranges not offered because they would crop the data: 0.7 to 1.3.

Visual abstract

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately? no difference RATE_RATIO 0.764 95% CI 0.636 to 0.919 The interval excludes no difference. 2 trials, 2,213 participants. Outcome: Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure ALONE, with no death component, as a rate ratio. GRADE certainty: Pending. Leave-one-out with two trials: each refit is simply the other trial, so this is not robustness evidence. 1 of 2 single-trial refits exclude no difference.

⬇ SVG (vector) 3 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x2100 396 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 0a2a909bf6b2f19a), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — visual-abstract.eps, 5 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — visual-abstract.tiff, 27,685 KB.

Projected from the canonical object, so it carries the same k, the same pooled estimate and the same interval as the paper and cannot drift from them. The interval is drawn to scale against the no-difference line, which it EXCLUDES: 0.636 to 0.919, with no difference at 1.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 2: the whole subset space is 3 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 81 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 9091822e99aa8781), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 2 trials is 3 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 2 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 2 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: e35ec93bbc9a1c10), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 2 a meta-regression would be fitted on 2 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

0.5 0.7 1 1.2 1.5 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31) confirm-hf 0.89 (0.41 to 1.93) Pooled (HR)

⬇ SVG (vector) 2 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 92 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 8a998d781953790a), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 4 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 12,129 KB.

0.5 0.7 1 1.2 1.5 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31) confirm-hf 0.89 (0.41 to 1.93) Pooled (HR)

⬇ SVG (vector) 2 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x920 90 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 1d90acb5cf6433fb), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w2.eps, 4 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w2.tiff, 12,129 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted. Ranges not offered because they would crop the data: 0.5 to 2, 0.7 to 1.3.

Visual abstract

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately? no difference HR 0.978 95% CI 0.752 to 1.27 The interval INCLUDES no difference: this pooled estimate is compatible with no effect. 2 trials, 1,409 participants. Outcome: Time to death from ANY cause, as a hazard ratio. GRADE certainty: Pending. Leave-one-out with two trials: each refit is simply the other trial, so this is not robustness evidence. 0 of 2 single-trial refits exclude no difference.

⬇ SVG (vector) 3 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x2100 408 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: a0bf5d1fecc2c8bd), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — visual-abstract.eps, 5 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — visual-abstract.tiff, 27,685 KB.

Projected from the canonical object, so it carries the same k, the same pooled estimate and the same interval as the paper and cannot drift from them. The interval is drawn CROSSING the no-difference line because it does: 0.752 to 1.271 spans 1. A graphical abstract travels without its caption, and one showing a favourable point estimate without showing that its interval includes no effect would overstate a null result.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 2: the whole subset space is 3 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 81 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 9091822e99aa8781), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 2 trials is 3 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 2 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 2 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: e35ec93bbc9a1c10), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 2 a meta-regression would be fitted on 2 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

1 1.2 Effect (log scale). 1 = no difference. heart-fid 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x580 46 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 8da129ef49a8c33c), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 7,646 KB.

1 1.2 Effect (log scale). 1 = no difference. heart-fid 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x580 46 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25faf70a2424e65e), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w1.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w1.tiff, 7,646 KB.

1 1.2 Effect (log scale). 1 = no difference. heart-fid 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x580 46 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: cbb2c0d24400dafc), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w2.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w2.tiff, 7,646 KB.

1 1.2 Effect (log scale). 1 = no difference. heart-fid 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x580 46 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: bf6cb7cced8d699d), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_w3.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_w3.tiff, 7,646 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 1: the whole subset space is 1 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 80 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 5ec97d733b5a0686), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 1 trials is 1 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 1 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 1 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 85 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 655c850bcb4ad0dc), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 1 a meta-regression would be fitted on 1 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres

Forest plot

Drawn from the same stored estimates the table above lists. Box area is proportional to inverse-variance weight.

x-axis range

0 54.6 Effect. 0 = no difference. confirm-hf 33 (11.4 to 54.6)

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 4500x580 43 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: afa5460d185122a9), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — forest_fit.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — forest_fit.tiff, 7,646 KB.

Changing the range moves the axis window only. The guides stay labelled with the null and the extremes of the plotted intervals, so no plotted value and no printed number differs between these views — and that is checked at build time, not asserted. Ranges not offered because they would crop the data: 0.5 to 2, 0.25 to 4, 0.7 to 1.3.

Risk of bias, both assessors

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + IRONMAN ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + FAIR-HF2 ? □ □ □ + □ ? + ? + AFFIRM-AHF ? □ + □ ? □ + + ? + CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? HEART-FID ? □ + □ + □ + + ? ? CONFIRM-HF ? □ + □ □ □ + + ? ? affirm-ahf · · · · · · · · · · ironman · · · · · · · · · · fair-hf2 · · · · · · · · · · heart-fid · · · · · · · · · · confirm-hf · · · · · · · · · · Left mark in each cell: anthropic. Right mark: openai. A ○ carries one of the three domain judgements RoB 2 defines: + low, ? some concerns, − high. A □ is NOT a fourth judgement: it marks a domain this review could not evidence, which is an unassessed domain rather than a verdict about the trial (a protocol, statistical analysis plan, registry field or regulatory review would close it). · not assessed.

⬇ SVG (vector) 27 KB

Only the vector format is offered for this figure, by choice: it is line art — discrete marks, glyphs and labels — which SVG reproduces exactly at any size, so a raster would add weight without adding fidelity. The build was able to rasterise; it was asked not to.

Every cell carries BOTH independent cross-family assessments and they are not reconciled: showing one column would be a reconciliation presented as an observation. Glyph as well as colour, so the panel survives greyscale printing and colour-blind reading. A trial with no judgement is shown as a row of not-assessed markers rather than omitted, so a gap in the assessment cannot be mistaken for a clean assessment. Agreement as measured: {'per domain agreed': 19, 'per domain total': 50, 'per domain rate pct': 38.0, 'overall agreed': 4, 'overall total': 10, 'overall is derived': True, 'recomputed from the stored judgements': True, 'why recomputed': 'The stored disagreement tallies were frozen as text and 12 of 22 no longer match the judgements in the object -- a later guidance pass moved 51 the randomisation process judgements and the tallies were never recomputed. This is derived from what the object holds now.'}.

GOSH

GOSH plot — not drawn at this k Computable but uninformative at k = 1: the whole subset space is 1 points, and its shape is read for clustering that needs an order of magnitude more studies.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 80 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 5ec97d733b5a0686), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — gosh.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — gosh.tiff, 5,537 KB.

Deliberately not drawn. Every subset meta-analysis of 1 trials is 1 points; a cloud that small cannot show the multimodality GOSH exists to reveal, and a reader would take the picture as evidence of its absence.

Trial-sequential analysis

Trial-sequential analysis — not computable Not run: TSA needs a pre-specified target information size, and no anticipated relative risk reduction or control-arm event rate is registered in this object's protocol.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x650 87 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 25ed9800fdf56614), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — tsa.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — tsa.tiff, 6,665 KB.

TSA boundaries depend entirely on a target information size that must be pre-specified. This review's protocol registers none, so any boundary drawn here would be a parameter chosen after seeing the data -- which is the practice TSA exists to protect against.

Meta-regression

Meta-regression bubble plot — not drawn at this k Not fitted: 1 trials and no pre-specified moderator. A regression on year would spend 2 of 1 degrees of freedom on a covariate this review never registered.

⬇ SVG (vector) 1 KB ⬇ PNG 3500x540 85 KB

All raster formats were generated at build time from the same SVG as the graphic above (SHA-256, first 16 hex characters: 655c850bcb4ad0dc), at 600 dpi for a 6-inch print width, on a white ground.

Submission formats written to the figures directory, not embedded here because an uncompressed 600 dpi TIFF is tens of megabytes: EPS (vector, journal's first choice for line art) — bubble.eps, 2 KB; TIFF (uncompressed, 600 dpi -- journal fallback) — bubble.tiff, 5,537 KB.

The protocol pre-specifies no moderator, and at k = 1 a meta-regression would be fitted on 1 points. Not drawn rather than drawn with a caveat: a bubble plot invites reading a slope, and there is no slope here that any reader should read.

In this section: Summary of findings · Reproducibility artifact · Other recorded qualifications · Judgement register — what a harness cannot derive · Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared · Outcome hfh_cvd_first — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared · Outcome hfh_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared · Outcome acm — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared · Comparison with published syntheses · The syntheses reconciled against · Where the numbers differ, and why · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE) · Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE) · Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE) · Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE) · A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE) · Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres · Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Summary of findings

Table 49. Summary of findings
OutcomekPooled effectCertainty
Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio2RATE_RATIO 0.807 (0.686 to 0.949)Pending12
Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio2HR 0.796 (0.686 to 0.923)Pending12
Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio2RATE_RATIO 0.764 (0.636 to 0.919)Pending12
Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio2HR 0.978 (0.752 to 1.27)Pending12
A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio1not pooledPending12
Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres1not pooledPending12
  1. This certainty rating is PENDING, not rated. It rests on a risk-of-bias judgement that this review has not finalised: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Cochrane rates certainty per outcome by aggregating the risk-of-bias judgements of the results contributing to it, so a certainty rating cannot be more final than the risk-of-bias assessment it reads. The rating this object currently records, and the steps behind it, are shown below as the work so far rather than as this review's answer. No level is published for this outcome -- not the recorded one, not a more cautious one, and not a midpoint -- because choosing one would be the judgement that has not been made.
  2. Read this beside `whether the estimand was established`. That flag records that every contributing trial measures the same quantity. It records nothing about what that quantity was measured against -- whether the comparators are of one kind, whether each comparison was randomised, whether it was concurrent. The two questions were never separated. Named as P48 in PAGE-STANDARD.md v1.21.0 and swept by scripts/audit_mixed_contrast_pools.py.

Reproducibility artifact

Table 50. Reproducibility artifact
Canonical object—
Registered at— —
Schema2
Object last updated2026-08-10
Source object SHA-256, first 16 hex characters664c1c07e981a604
Page generated2026-09-01 19:44 UTC
Generator build1ade5027d, built to STANDARD v1
Statistical enginemetafor 5.0.1 under R 4.6.0, generic inverse variance on the same log point and log standard error this object stores

This page CANNOT be rebuilt from what is recorded here: no canonical object is recorded and no registered commit is recorded. Each figure on the Analysis tab downloads as an SVG carrying exactly the values shown.

Other recorded qualifications

Statements this review records about the limits of what it establishes, which are not shown elsewhere on this page. They are reproduced from the object verbatim and are not summarised.

Table 51. Other recorded qualifications
Analysed scopeThis trial's full analysis set, which is smaller than its randomised total: 1132 were randomised, treatment started in 1110, and 1108 had at least one post-randomisation value. The 558 and 550 stored here are that set, and it is the population every estimate on this trial's rows was computed in. The two figures are both real and they are not interchangeable, so the randomised total is stored on the trial and the analysed pair is stored on each row.
Analysed absent becauseThis trial has one analysis set and this object records it once, on the row for the endpoint the trial designates as its own primary. The denominators are neither unknown nor different here: every estimate stored for this trial was computed in the same full analysis set, which is smaller than the randomised total and whose composition is stated on that row and on the trial. They are omitted from this row deliberately, because repeating them under a different effect estimate would assert independently-scoped analysis populations where the trial has one.
Analysed scopeAll validly randomly assigned patients, 569 and 568, which is the population the trial states for its primary outcome and which sums to its randomised total. This is the only contributing trial in this object whose analysis set and randomised total coincide and whose registry record posts no results to check that against; the coincidence is read from the publication.
Analysed scopeThe 558 and 547 the trial reports for its two arms, which sum to its randomised total of 1105. No participant randomised in this trial is absent from the analyses stored here.
Analysed absent becauseThis trial has one analysis set and this object records it once, on the row for the first of its co-primary endpoints. Its two arms sum to its randomised total, so nothing about the omitted pair is uncertain; it is omitted so that one analysis population is not asserted twice under two different estimates.
Analysed scopeThe 1532 and 1533 the trial reports, summing to its randomised total of 3065, and they are the denominators the win ratio itself is computed over. The registry does not post that pair on every component it publishes, and an earlier version of this field said it did. Two of the three components -- the deaths and the heart-failure hospitalisations -- post 1532 and 1533 against an intention-to-treat population. The WALK-DISTANCE component posts 1285 and 1295, against a population its own record describes as the participants within that set who contributed walk-test data. That is worth stating rather than smoothing: the third level of this trial's hierarchy rests on roughly two hundred and fifty fewer participants per arm than the two levels above it, which is a fact about how a hierarchical endpoint accumulates evidence and is invisible in the win ratio it produces.
Registry does not postThis trial's registry record posts one outcome measure -- the six-minute walk test at week 24 -- and no results section at all. There is no registry text for this endpoint to read, and its absence was established by reading the record rather than inferred from the trial being old.
Analysed scopeThis trial's full analysis set, 150 and 151, which is not its randomised total. 304 patients were enrolled and 152 were randomised to each arm; three were excluded from the full analysis set for having no post-baseline efficacy assessment. The pair stored here is the one printed in the paper's own baseline and outcome tables and in the United States label, and it is the population every estimate on this trial's rows was computed in. An adversary brief asserted that 150 and 151 match neither arm of this trial; reading the full text refutes that, and the correction is carried in this object's corrections block. Note also, because it is a real inconsistency between two layers and not a typing error here: the label calls 150 and 151 the numbers randomised, while the paper calls them the numbers analysed out of 152 and 152 randomised.
Prediction interval on t k minus 1This transcript is quoted verbatim and is not edited. metafor's predict() takes its quantile from the FIT, and a default rma() is test="z", so the pi.lb/pi.ub printed above are normal-quantile bounds. The Handbook interval for the same fit, on t_{k-1}, is given here beside it rather than in place of it.
F tau squared is exactly zero so this is a fixed effect intervalFour pools on this object are affected, not only this one: hfh cvd recurrent (RATE_RATIO 0.8066), hfh cvd first (HR 0.7957), hfh recurrent (RATE_RATIO 0.7645), acm (HR 0.978). This pool is labelled random-effects and its interval is a fixed-effect interval. tau-squared is estimated as exactly 0.0, and when tau-squared is zero the random-effects weights reduce to the inverse-variance weights and the interval is identical to the fixed-effect one. The model specification is not false -- a random-effects model whose variance component is estimated at zero is still the model that was fitted. What is misleading is reading the label as a promise about the interval: it collapsed to the common-effect result, and a reader who sees 'random-effects' and infers that between-study variation was allowed for is inferring something this interval does not contain. And with k = 2 that estimate carries almost no information. A variance component estimated from two studies is estimated from one degree of freedom; tau-squared = 0 there means 'the two results are close enough that the estimator was driven to its boundary', not 'these trials agree'. Two points cannot demonstrate agreement. The estimate and interval are unchanged. What is recorded is that a reader should read this interval as a fixed-effect one and should not take tau-squared = 0 as evidence of consistency.
What it does not establishThat the per-trial inputs are right. This is arithmetic over values already on the object; it confirms the pooling, not the extraction. The extraction is P5's job and is checked against the registry separately.
Record limitationWritten from the staged abstract, which prints both primaries.
Record limitationWritten from the staged abstract and PubMed Central full text.
Record limitationCharacterised from Graham 2023's own Table 1, a staged prior synthesis, and not from the trial's own report, which is not staged here. The disposition rests on the design facts that table prints -- form of iron, population, follow-up and size -- and on nothing else.
Evidence and why it does not settleThe field is not sufficient here, and this is the element that most needed checking rather than asserting. AFFIRM-AHF and HEART-FID type their iron arm ACTIVE_COMPARATOR against a PLACEBO_COMPARATOR saline arm and declare NO arm typed experimental at all. Read literally, the arm-type field would place the topic drug in the comparator role on 2 of the 5 contributing trials. The criterion is settled instead by ssot/topic_identity.locate()'s placebo-discriminator -- placebo is never the intervention, so a drug randomised against it is -- which is a derived judgement and is labelled as one. The 'OR usual care' half is load-bearing rather than generous: IRONMAN randomised against usual care, and a placebo-only criterion would exclude a contributing trial.
Evidence and why it does not settleRecorded because its absence is a decision, not an oversight, and an unstated decision is indistinguishable from an unnoticed one. Two contributing trials' staged sources state adjudication plainly. What cannot be shown is that every contributing trial's sources establish it -- so a criterion demanding adjudication would be one this review could not show all its own members satisfy.
Access limitationOne synthesis is staged as its abstract and its open full text, and the full text is what the trial-list comparison below is read from. The other is staged as its abstract only; its full text is not open, which was established by querying the open-access archive for its identifier rather than assumed from a paywall notice. That second synthesis does not name its contributing trials in its abstract, so its trial list is identified here by inference rather than read, and the inference is stated as one below rather than presented as a reading.
Benchmarks estimand absent becauseIts event set is broader than any estimand here: it counts all cardiovascular hospitalisations, not only those for heart failure. A reader who matched it to this object's recurrent composite would be matching two different event sets on the strength of a shared measure and a similar magnitude.
Review scopeintravenous iron of any preparation in heart failure with iron deficiency, aggregate data, search closed in early November 2022
Review scopeone molecule against placebo in heart failure with iron deficiency, individual patient data, trials with at least a year of follow-up
ScopeAFFIRM-AHF and IRONMAN on the composite of recurrent heart-failure hospitalisations and cardiovascular death
ScopeFair-hf, CONFIRM-HF, AFFIRM-AHF, IRONMAN, HEART-FID and FAIR-HF2, Bayesian, with individual participant data from five
ScopeFair-hf, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF individual participant data re-analysed to match IRONMAN's approach
Scopeseven trials, the composite of first heart-failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular mortality, pooled as odds ratios
Count reconciliation against the earlier runAn earlier execution tonight recorded k0=40 with roles 30/4/4/2. This run returns k0=47 with 34/6/5/2. The difference is the query, not the registry: query 2 above adds the term 'intravenous iron' to the intervention list, which surfaces seven further interventional records. Both numbers are correct for their own query. The earlier figure is superseded here and named rather than silently overwritten, because a count that changes without an explanation is indistinguishable from a count that was wrong.
Why the remainder does not moveBoth movers went into not assessable, which is not a screening queue. k3 is unchanged at 34, so the 29-trial remainder and its dispositions stand exactly as screened. A restatement that changes k5 and kNA without touching k3 changes what the page claims to have read, not what it screened -- and those are two different corrections that would be indistinguishable if only a total were reported.
This is the law being applied not bent'background or coadministered' asserts the drug was given in every arm. On a record with no arms declared, that assertion has no input. ABSENT input is not assessable, never a verdict -- the same law the preconditions run on, reaching the classifier two commits later than it reached them.
A corpus level k must not be obtained by summingMeasured corpus-wide on 2026-08-19: 259 distinct registration identities across 136 objects, 53 of them shared (20.5%), and the sum of per-topic k is 319 against 259 distinct -- sixty double-counted. This object contributes 3 of that overlap.
Why this is stated rather than left implicitA rating of some concerns with no explanation reads as a judgement against the trial. Omitting the reason would manufacture a criticism exactly as a low-by-default manufactures a reassurance -- the same defect pointed the other way.
Registry facts backfilledRead from ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 on 2026-08-21. The judgements above were not revisited -- this adds the registry evidence beside a verdict that was made from it and did not record it, so a blind second assessor can be shown the same facts. A second assessment built on fewer facts is not a comparable assessment.
This does not replace the stored judgementThis is the judgement the published algorithm proposes from the signalling responses named here. It does not replace the stored `judgement` beside it, and nothing reads it yet. The tool itself says its algorithms "provide proposed judgements, but users should verify these and change them if they feel this is appropriate" -- so this is an input to a person, not an output to a reader.
What would bound itExtracting every result this trial reports for this outcome domain and showing what the pool does under each. That is not held for any trial in this object, so the size of this risk is unmeasured rather than small.
The allow list the rate is conditional onA disagreement rate is meaningless without the facts both assessors saw, so the list is stated here the way a denominator is stated. Fields emitted: trial, cohort, registered enrolment, registered masking, registered sites, registered comparator, number of registered arms, number of registered primary outcomes, registered primary outcome, registered analysis population, the rank the pooled result holds, the result being assessed, participants this review pools, registered enrolment minus participants pooled. Established by test, not argument: widening this list from 9 fields to 14 halved gepotidacin's disagreement -- its entire selection of the reported result divergence was a fact the second assessor had never been shown -- and left ceftaroline and tigecycline unmoved.
What this review does not publishWhat this review does not publish. This review also examined two outcomes for which no pooled estimate is published: A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio (k=1), which is not pooled; Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres (k=1), which is not pooled. Each of those outcomes is recorded on this review with the reason it was not pooled, and none of them contributes to the estimate reported above (0.8066 at k=2, 0.7957 at k=2, 0.7645 at k=2, 0.978 at k=2). A reader meeting the pooled result should not take it as covering every outcome, or every trial, this review examined. This sentence exists because a second, independent reading -- by a different model family, given the object and the abstract and none of our conclusions -- found that a reader would reasonably conclude the review pools all relevant trials, and that the object does not support that. The withdrawals were already recorded beside the outcomes they concern; they were invisible from the abstract, which is where the impression forms.
Which risk of bias domains drove the ratingWhere a result is rated worse than LOW overall, the domain carrying that judgement is: missing outcome data on 7 result(s), the randomisation process on 3 result(s), deviations from the intended intervention on 3 result(s), selection of the reported result on 3 result(s), measurement of the outcome on 1 result(s). The overall rating is the worst domain, so these are the domains that determine it.

Judgement register — what a harness cannot derive

Judgements a harness cannot derive, per outcome, with the alternative and its consequence. DERIVED AT BUILD TIME by ssot/topic_judgements.py — this table is not written for this topic and the same code produces it for every topic.

⛔ No entry is resolved by inferring from the included trials. Deriving a review's question from the populations that were enrolled returns DIRECT by construction. Where the store does not declare a judgement this table says UNDECLARED and stops.

Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared

Table 52. Outcome hfh_cvd_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared
JudgementStateDecidedDecided byAlternativeIf the alternative had been taken
QUESTION_PICOUNDECLAREDNOT DECLARED -- missing axes: population, intervention, comparator, outcomeNOBODY. The review question exists as prose and has never been resolved into axes.Declare it, axis by axis.⛔ WITHOUT IT THE INDIRECTNESS DOMAIN CANNOT BE COMPARED AXIS BY AXIS AT ALL. Prose cannot be compared with prose. Any indirectness rating on this topic is therefore a stored judgement or an absence, never a derivation.
ELIGIBILITY_RULEDECLAREDA rule is recorded that names criteria on BOTH the comparator and the outcome.A HUMAN. The concept block finds the drug; this is the part it cannot express.Widen or narrow the comparator or outcome criterion.k would change, and which trials contribute with it. NOT COMPUTED: re-screening is not a store operation.
COUNT_TIERUNDECLAREDONE COUNT BASIS: none recordedNOT RECORDED on any contributing row.The other tier, where the trial has one.NOT COMPUTED -- the store holds only one basis, so the alternative cannot be evaluated without going back to the sources.
INDIRECTNESSUNDECLAREDNO STORED JUDGEMENT AND NO DECLARED question_pico.NOBODY. The domain cannot be derived without both PICOs and it has not been judged by hand either.Declare question_pico, or judge the domain explicitly.⛔ Until one of the two happens the domain is neither rated nor refused -- it is simply missing, which reads to a reader as no concern.
ESTIMANDDECLARED⚠️ CONTRIBUTING TRIALS REPORT 5 DIFFERENT PRIMARY TIME FRAMES: 1 year; 6 months | 24 weeks | Minimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruited | The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; The wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; During the wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months. | up to 52 weeks after randomization. The pool combines them on one scale.A HUMAN, and often as a SIDE EFFECT of the count tier rather than as its own decision -- a registry reports participants and so forces a risk ratio; a publication reports person-years and so forces a rate ratio. Choosing the document chose the measure.Pool on person-time instead, which is estimand-consistent under unequal follow-up.NOT COMPUTED -- person-time denominators are not in this store. Where a topic holds them the alternative is one line.
IMPRECISION_THRESHOLDUNDECLAREDNO THRESHOLD DECLARED.⚠️ NOBODY. The engine falls back to the Handbook rough guide of 0.75 to 1.25 -- which means the most consequential line on the page is drawn by a default rather than by a clinical judgement.Declare one, justified from ABSOLUTE effect rather than from the ratio.The imprecision domain would rest on a stated, arguable line instead of an unexamined default.
HARMS_POOLINGUNDECLAREDNO HARMS OUTCOME IS HELD.NOBODY -- the review carries benefit only.Extract harms.⛔ OUTCOME SCOPE IS BENEFIT-ONLY. A reader cannot weigh anything against anything.
INDEX_ENTRYUNDECLAREDThe object does not carry the sentence the portfolio index shows.⚠️ A HUMAN, IN THE INDEX GENERATOR, WITH NO LINK BACK. project_index_cards.py projects the numbers and states that the prose is authored, so the tile's name for this review lives only in the index and nothing reconciles the two.Store the tile sentence on the object and project it.⛔ Until then a re-pointed object updates its NUMBER on the index and keeps its old NAME. Measured 2026-08-30: 1 of 44 mapped index entries names trials the object has never heard of, and the number beside it was correct. See scripts/audit_index_identity_drift.py.

A topic costs 2 declared judgements on this outcome, not four hundred. That is a stronger claim than "automated", because a reader can check a declared judgement and cannot check an inferred one.

⚠️ It does not make the judgements right, and it does not prove the SLOT LIST is complete -- the list is bounded by what its author enumerated. The honest form is "8 slots checked", never "8 judgements exist".

Outcome hfh_cvd_first — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared

Table 53. Outcome hfh_cvd_first — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared
JudgementStateDecidedDecided byAlternativeIf the alternative had been taken
QUESTION_PICOUNDECLAREDNOT DECLARED -- missing axes: population, intervention, comparator, outcomeNOBODY. The review question exists as prose and has never been resolved into axes.Declare it, axis by axis.⛔ WITHOUT IT THE INDIRECTNESS DOMAIN CANNOT BE COMPARED AXIS BY AXIS AT ALL. Prose cannot be compared with prose. Any indirectness rating on this topic is therefore a stored judgement or an absence, never a derivation.
ELIGIBILITY_RULEDECLAREDA rule is recorded that names criteria on BOTH the comparator and the outcome.A HUMAN. The concept block finds the drug; this is the part it cannot express.Widen or narrow the comparator or outcome criterion.k would change, and which trials contribute with it. NOT COMPUTED: re-screening is not a store operation.
COUNT_TIERUNDECLAREDONE COUNT BASIS: none recordedNOT RECORDED on any contributing row.The other tier, where the trial has one.NOT COMPUTED -- the store holds only one basis, so the alternative cannot be evaluated without going back to the sources.
INDIRECTNESSUNDECLAREDNO STORED JUDGEMENT AND NO DECLARED question_pico.NOBODY. The domain cannot be derived without both PICOs and it has not been judged by hand either.Declare question_pico, or judge the domain explicitly.⛔ Until one of the two happens the domain is neither rated nor refused -- it is simply missing, which reads to a reader as no concern.
ESTIMANDDECLARED⚠️ CONTRIBUTING TRIALS REPORT 5 DIFFERENT PRIMARY TIME FRAMES: 1 year; 6 months | 24 weeks | Minimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruited | The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; The wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; During the wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months. | up to 52 weeks after randomization. The pool combines them on one scale.A HUMAN, and often as a SIDE EFFECT of the count tier rather than as its own decision -- a registry reports participants and so forces a risk ratio; a publication reports person-years and so forces a rate ratio. Choosing the document chose the measure.Pool on person-time instead, which is estimand-consistent under unequal follow-up.NOT COMPUTED -- person-time denominators are not in this store. Where a topic holds them the alternative is one line.
IMPRECISION_THRESHOLDUNDECLAREDNO THRESHOLD DECLARED.⚠️ NOBODY. The engine falls back to the Handbook rough guide of 0.75 to 1.25 -- which means the most consequential line on the page is drawn by a default rather than by a clinical judgement.Declare one, justified from ABSOLUTE effect rather than from the ratio.The imprecision domain would rest on a stated, arguable line instead of an unexamined default.
HARMS_POOLINGUNDECLAREDNO HARMS OUTCOME IS HELD.NOBODY -- the review carries benefit only.Extract harms.⛔ OUTCOME SCOPE IS BENEFIT-ONLY. A reader cannot weigh anything against anything.
INDEX_ENTRYUNDECLAREDThe object does not carry the sentence the portfolio index shows.⚠️ A HUMAN, IN THE INDEX GENERATOR, WITH NO LINK BACK. project_index_cards.py projects the numbers and states that the prose is authored, so the tile's name for this review lives only in the index and nothing reconciles the two.Store the tile sentence on the object and project it.⛔ Until then a re-pointed object updates its NUMBER on the index and keeps its old NAME. Measured 2026-08-30: 1 of 44 mapped index entries names trials the object has never heard of, and the number beside it was correct. See scripts/audit_index_identity_drift.py.

A topic costs 2 declared judgements on this outcome, not four hundred. That is a stronger claim than "automated", because a reader can check a declared judgement and cannot check an inferred one.

⚠️ It does not make the judgements right, and it does not prove the SLOT LIST is complete -- the list is bounded by what its author enumerated. The honest form is "8 slots checked", never "8 judgements exist".

Outcome hfh_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared

Table 54. Outcome hfh_recurrent — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared
JudgementStateDecidedDecided byAlternativeIf the alternative had been taken
QUESTION_PICOUNDECLAREDNOT DECLARED -- missing axes: population, intervention, comparator, outcomeNOBODY. The review question exists as prose and has never been resolved into axes.Declare it, axis by axis.⛔ WITHOUT IT THE INDIRECTNESS DOMAIN CANNOT BE COMPARED AXIS BY AXIS AT ALL. Prose cannot be compared with prose. Any indirectness rating on this topic is therefore a stored judgement or an absence, never a derivation.
ELIGIBILITY_RULEDECLAREDA rule is recorded that names criteria on BOTH the comparator and the outcome.A HUMAN. The concept block finds the drug; this is the part it cannot express.Widen or narrow the comparator or outcome criterion.k would change, and which trials contribute with it. NOT COMPUTED: re-screening is not a store operation.
COUNT_TIERUNDECLAREDONE COUNT BASIS: none recordedNOT RECORDED on any contributing row.The other tier, where the trial has one.NOT COMPUTED -- the store holds only one basis, so the alternative cannot be evaluated without going back to the sources.
INDIRECTNESSUNDECLAREDNO STORED JUDGEMENT AND NO DECLARED question_pico.NOBODY. The domain cannot be derived without both PICOs and it has not been judged by hand either.Declare question_pico, or judge the domain explicitly.⛔ Until one of the two happens the domain is neither rated nor refused -- it is simply missing, which reads to a reader as no concern.
ESTIMANDDECLARED⚠️ CONTRIBUTING TRIALS REPORT 5 DIFFERENT PRIMARY TIME FRAMES: 1 year; 6 months | 24 weeks | Minimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruited | The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; The wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; During the wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months. | up to 52 weeks after randomization. The pool combines them on one scale.A HUMAN, and often as a SIDE EFFECT of the count tier rather than as its own decision -- a registry reports participants and so forces a risk ratio; a publication reports person-years and so forces a rate ratio. Choosing the document chose the measure.Pool on person-time instead, which is estimand-consistent under unequal follow-up.NOT COMPUTED -- person-time denominators are not in this store. Where a topic holds them the alternative is one line.
IMPRECISION_THRESHOLDUNDECLAREDNO THRESHOLD DECLARED.⚠️ NOBODY. The engine falls back to the Handbook rough guide of 0.75 to 1.25 -- which means the most consequential line on the page is drawn by a default rather than by a clinical judgement.Declare one, justified from ABSOLUTE effect rather than from the ratio.The imprecision domain would rest on a stated, arguable line instead of an unexamined default.
HARMS_POOLINGUNDECLAREDNO HARMS OUTCOME IS HELD.NOBODY -- the review carries benefit only.Extract harms.⛔ OUTCOME SCOPE IS BENEFIT-ONLY. A reader cannot weigh anything against anything.
INDEX_ENTRYUNDECLAREDThe object does not carry the sentence the portfolio index shows.⚠️ A HUMAN, IN THE INDEX GENERATOR, WITH NO LINK BACK. project_index_cards.py projects the numbers and states that the prose is authored, so the tile's name for this review lives only in the index and nothing reconciles the two.Store the tile sentence on the object and project it.⛔ Until then a re-pointed object updates its NUMBER on the index and keeps its old NAME. Measured 2026-08-30: 1 of 44 mapped index entries names trials the object has never heard of, and the number beside it was correct. See scripts/audit_index_identity_drift.py.

A topic costs 2 declared judgements on this outcome, not four hundred. That is a stronger claim than "automated", because a reader can check a declared judgement and cannot check an inferred one.

⚠️ It does not make the judgements right, and it does not prove the SLOT LIST is complete -- the list is bounded by what its author enumerated. The honest form is "8 slots checked", never "8 judgements exist".

Outcome acm — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared

Table 55. Outcome acm — 2 of 8 declared, 6 of 8 undeclared
JudgementStateDecidedDecided byAlternativeIf the alternative had been taken
QUESTION_PICOUNDECLAREDNOT DECLARED -- missing axes: population, intervention, comparator, outcomeNOBODY. The review question exists as prose and has never been resolved into axes.Declare it, axis by axis.⛔ WITHOUT IT THE INDIRECTNESS DOMAIN CANNOT BE COMPARED AXIS BY AXIS AT ALL. Prose cannot be compared with prose. Any indirectness rating on this topic is therefore a stored judgement or an absence, never a derivation.
ELIGIBILITY_RULEDECLAREDA rule is recorded that names criteria on BOTH the comparator and the outcome.A HUMAN. The concept block finds the drug; this is the part it cannot express.Widen or narrow the comparator or outcome criterion.k would change, and which trials contribute with it. NOT COMPUTED: re-screening is not a store operation.
COUNT_TIERUNDECLAREDONE COUNT BASIS: none recordedNOT RECORDED on any contributing row.The other tier, where the trial has one.NOT COMPUTED -- the store holds only one basis, so the alternative cannot be evaluated without going back to the sources.
INDIRECTNESSUNDECLAREDNO STORED JUDGEMENT AND NO DECLARED question_pico.NOBODY. The domain cannot be derived without both PICOs and it has not been judged by hand either.Declare question_pico, or judge the domain explicitly.⛔ Until one of the two happens the domain is neither rated nor refused -- it is simply missing, which reads to a reader as no concern.
ESTIMANDDECLARED⚠️ CONTRIBUTING TRIALS REPORT 5 DIFFERENT PRIMARY TIME FRAMES: 1 year; 6 months | 24 weeks | Minimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruited | The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; The wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; During the wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months. | up to 52 weeks after randomization. The pool combines them on one scale.A HUMAN, and often as a SIDE EFFECT of the count tier rather than as its own decision -- a registry reports participants and so forces a risk ratio; a publication reports person-years and so forces a rate ratio. Choosing the document chose the measure.Pool on person-time instead, which is estimand-consistent under unequal follow-up.NOT COMPUTED -- person-time denominators are not in this store. Where a topic holds them the alternative is one line.
IMPRECISION_THRESHOLDUNDECLAREDNO THRESHOLD DECLARED.⚠️ NOBODY. The engine falls back to the Handbook rough guide of 0.75 to 1.25 -- which means the most consequential line on the page is drawn by a default rather than by a clinical judgement.Declare one, justified from ABSOLUTE effect rather than from the ratio.The imprecision domain would rest on a stated, arguable line instead of an unexamined default.
HARMS_POOLINGUNDECLAREDNO HARMS OUTCOME IS HELD.NOBODY -- the review carries benefit only.Extract harms.⛔ OUTCOME SCOPE IS BENEFIT-ONLY. A reader cannot weigh anything against anything.
INDEX_ENTRYUNDECLAREDThe object does not carry the sentence the portfolio index shows.⚠️ A HUMAN, IN THE INDEX GENERATOR, WITH NO LINK BACK. project_index_cards.py projects the numbers and states that the prose is authored, so the tile's name for this review lives only in the index and nothing reconciles the two.Store the tile sentence on the object and project it.⛔ Until then a re-pointed object updates its NUMBER on the index and keeps its old NAME. Measured 2026-08-30: 1 of 44 mapped index entries names trials the object has never heard of, and the number beside it was correct. See scripts/audit_index_identity_drift.py.

A topic costs 2 declared judgements on this outcome, not four hundred. That is a stronger claim than "automated", because a reader can check a declared judgement and cannot check an inferred one.

⚠️ It does not make the judgements right, and it does not prove the SLOT LIST is complete -- the list is bounded by what its author enumerated. The honest form is "8 slots checked", never "8 judgements exist".

Comparison with published syntheses

This is the topic where a published synthesis pools the same two trials on the same endpoint as this review, so the pooled value here can be checked against an external number rather than only described. It is also the topic with the largest published evidence base -- six trials with individual participant data -- against which our two-trial pool has to explain itself.

11 checks were applied and 8 came back clean, 0 found an error, 1 found something absent and 2 could not be settled at the layer available. The denominator is stated because a list of only the failures is not a finding, it is a selection.

Confirmations are listed in the same table, in the same detail, as errors. Across the cardiology topics reconciled so far the published literature has been implicated in none of them: where a defect existed it was ours. A comparison with room only for their errors could not have found that out.

Table 56. Comparison with published syntheses
CheckVerdictWhat was found
Our AFFIRM-AHF recurrent-composite input against the registry's posted result
affirm-recurrent-vs-registry-results
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
The registry posts, on the primary outcome whose definition we read, an annualised event rate ratio of 0.79 with a 95% interval of 0.62 to 1.01, from a negative binomial model adjusted for sex, age, HF aetiology, HF duration and country. This object stores 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01). Identical, and taken from the registry's analysis record rather than from the publication.
Quoted: “Annualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.79, CI 0.62-1.01” — ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02937454, resultsSection, primary outcome
Our AFFIRM-AHF time-to-first input against the registry's posted result
affirm-first-event-vs-registry-results
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
Registry: hazard ratio 0.80 (0.66 to 0.98), Cox, same covariates. This object stores 0.80 (0.66 to 0.98).
Quoted: “Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.80, CI 0.66-0.98” — ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02937454, 'Composite of HF Hospitalisations or CV Death'
Our two remaining AFFIRM-AHF inputs against the registry's posted results
affirm-hfh-and-acm-vs-registry-results
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
Recurrent heart-failure hospitalisations: registry 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94), object 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94). All-cause mortality: registry 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31), object 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31). All four of this trial's contributions to this review are therefore confirmed against a surface independent of its publication -- which matters here, because the publication does not report the all-cause figure at all.
Quoted: “Annualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.74, CI 0.58-0.94; Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.99, CI 0.75-1.31” — ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02937454, secondary and other-prespecified outcomes
The registry posts two analyses per AFFIRM-AHF outcome; which one is here
which-affirm-analysis-is-pooled
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
Every AFFIRM-AHF outcome carries a pre-specified COVID-19 sensitivity analysis beside the main one -- on the primary, 0.75 (0.59 to 0.96) against 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01). This object pools the main analysis throughout. The distinction decides whether this trial's own result crosses the null, so a review that took one without saying which would be reporting a choice as though it were a reading. Checked because value-without-its-analysis is a defect class this batch has produced before; here it is clean and now explicit.
Quoted: “Annualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.75, CI 0.59-0.96 -- the second analysis posted on the same outcome” — ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02937454, primary outcome, analysis 2
Whether CONFIRM-HF's 0.89 is established as a hazard ratio, or only assumed to be one
confirm-hf-ratio-is-a-hazard-ratio
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
It is established. The column header of the trial's own Table 2 reads 'Time to first event hazard ratio | 95% CI | P-value'. This object had stored the row without the header -- 'Death 12 12 (8.9) 14 14 (9.9) 0.89 (0.41-1.93) 0.77' -- and a row of numbers does not say what the numbers are. The header has been added to the extraction surface. This is the same question that is currently open on ARNI, where a contributing ratio is not established as a hazard ratio and decides the result; asked here, it comes back clean.
Quoted: “End-point or event | ... | Time to first event hazard ratio | 95% CI | P-value” — Eur Heart J 2015, CONFIRM-HF, Table 2 column header, read from the open-access full text
Our recurrent-composite pool against a published meta-analysis of the same two trials
our-pool-against-the-same-two-trials-published
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
Clin Res Cardiol 2023 pools AFFIRM-AHF and IRONMAN on this endpoint and reports RR 0.81 (0.69 to 0.95), I-squared 0%. This object reports 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488). The two agree to the precision either one prints. An inverse-variance pool of the two trials' main analyses -- 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01) and 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02) -- reproduces 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488) exactly, which is the arithmetic behind the agreement rather than an assertion of it. This is the only direct external check of a pooled value in this cardiology lane, and it passes.
Quoted: “FCM/FDI reduced the primary endpoint (RR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.95, p = 0.01, I2 = 0%)” — PMID 37074386, abstract
Our two-trial pool against the six-trial individual-participant-data analysis
our-pool-against-the-six-trial-ipd-analysis
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
Nat Med 2025 reports RR 0.81 (0.63 to 0.97) for recurrent HF hospitalisations and cardiovascular mortality over the complete follow-up of six trials, 7,175 patients. This object reports 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488) over two. The point estimates agree to two decimal places across a threefold difference in evidence, and their interval is wider than ours despite three times the patients -- which is what a Bayesian random-effects model with between-trial variance does, and is worth a reader's attention because the naive expectation is the opposite.
Quoted: “lower rates for the composite endpoint of recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality ... for the complete length of follow-up (RR = 0.81 (95% CI = 0.63-0.97))” — PMID 40159279, abstract
Whether any located synthesis pooled trials that count different things
did-anyone-pool-mismatched-endpoints
CONFIRMED
checked and clean
None of the four located syntheses did, and two of them did the harmonisation work explicitly. The Bayesian analysis states that 'definitions of outcomes and subgroups from the fair-hf, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN', and the Nat Med analysis used individual participant data to derive a common endpoint across six trials. The 2021 analysis pools a FIRST-event composite as odds ratios and says so, rather than mixing it with AFFIRM-AHF's recurrent primary. The literature handled the estimand correctly, and that is recorded as prominently as an error would be -- it is the third cardiology topic in a row where the defect, where there was one, was ours.
Quoted: “Definitions of outcomes and subgroups from the fair-hf, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN.” — PMID 37062867, abstract
Registry confirmation for IRONMAN and FAIR-HF2
two-trials-post-no-registry-results
ABSENT
the thing checked for is not there
Neither registry record posts a results section: the API returns zero posted outcome measures for both. Their contributions to this review therefore rest on their publications alone, with no second surface to check them against. Recorded as an absence in OUR evidence rather than a fault in the trials, and established by querying the records rather than inferred.
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02642562 and NCT03036462, resultsSection
Whether the 52 syntheses that name no trial included ours
what-the-abstract-layer-cannot-settle
UNRESOLVED
could not be settled at the layer available
52 of 61 records name none of our trials in the abstract and four carry no indexed abstract. Abstract-level screening cannot establish what a synthesis pooled. Counting them as agreeing would be absence of evidence dressed as evidence of absence.
the screen of published syntheses.json, tally
Whether the matching two-trial meta-analysis pooled the main or the COVID-19 analyses
which-inputs-the-matching-meta-analysis-used
UNRESOLVED
could not be settled at the layer available
Its abstract's opening sentence says the two trials demonstrated their results 'utilizing prespecified COVID-19 analyses', but its pooled 0.81 (0.69 to 0.95) reproduces the main analyses and not the covid ones, which would pool near 0.76. The numerical agreement makes the main analyses the more likely inputs, and the sentence is the more likely loose one -- but that is an inference and it is recorded as one. Full text would settle it, and nothing here depends on the answer.
Quoted: “utilizing prespecified COVID-19 analyses” — PMID 37074386, abstract, first sentence

The syntheses reconciled against

Table 57. The syntheses reconciled against
37074386Efficacy and safety of intravenous iron repletion in patients with heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clin Res Cardiol 2023.
It does not differ. Same two trials, same endpoint, independently computed -- which makes it the only direct external check of a pooled value anywhere in this cardiology lane.
40159279Systematic review and meta-analysis of intravenous iron therapy for patients with heart failure and iron deficiency. Nat Med 2025.
It has individual participant data and we have published summaries. That is the whole difference: four of its six trials publish no recurrent-events composite at all, so it could derive the endpoint for them and we could not. Our k=2 is a limit of the layer available to us, not a judgement that the other four are ineligible.
37062867Effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent heart failure hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency: A Bayesian meta-analysis. Eur J Heart Fail 2023.
It is the clearest example in this lane of the estimand work being done properly by someone else: rather than pooling whatever each trial happened to report, it re-derived the outcome in three trials to match the fourth, and says so in its abstract.
33755777Intravenous iron for heart failure with evidence of iron deficiency: a meta-analysis of randomised trials. Clin Res Cardiol 2021.
A different estimand -- first event, odds ratio -- and it says so. It describes AFFIRM-AHF's primary as the recurrent composite in its introduction and then pools first-event data, which is the correct handling and not a slip.

Where the numbers differ, and why

Table 58. Where the numbers differ, and why
This reviewRate ratio 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488) for recurrent heart-failure hospitalisations together with cardiovascular death, k=2, AFFIRM-AHF and IRONMAN, from published summary data.
The published synthesisRR 0.81 (0.69 to 0.95) on the same two trials (Clin Res Cardiol 2023); RR 0.81 (0.63 to 0.97) on six trials with individual participant data (Nat Med 2025); RR 0.73 (0.48 to 0.99) on four trials with harmonised definitions (Eur J Heart Fail 2023).
Why they differOn the same two trials they do not differ at all. Across the wider analyses the difference is access, not method: individual participant data let those authors derive a recurrent-events composite for four trials that publish none, and no amount of care with published summaries can substitute for that. The honest statement is that our k=2 is the limit of what the published layer supports, and that where the layers overlap the numbers agree.

How they were identified: PubMed E-utilities; the query, the counts and a decision for every record are in ssot/iv-iron-hf/appraisal/the screen of published syntheses.json. 61 records matched and all 61 were read at abstract level; 5 name at least one trial we pool.

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 59. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot serious—
Indirectnessnot seriousNot downgraded, and the reasoning is worth stating because two candidates exist. The first is the population spread between an at-discharge and an ambulatory trial, which is diversity within the question this review asks rather than a mismatch between the question and the evidence, and it belongs to the uniformity table. The second is the crossing of two different iron preparations, which makes the pooled value a class average; that is what the question asks for and it is labelled as such on the result and in the scope block. Downgrading for a reader's likely misreading would be stricter than the Handbook while claiming its support, which a gate leg has caught in this batch before.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 60. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot serious—
Indirectnessnot seriousNot downgraded. Population, intervention, comparator and outcome are all direct: adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, one intravenous iron preparation against a saline placebo, with the outcome measured in the trials themselves. The population spread between the two trials is smaller than on the recurrent-composite estimand because the molecule and the comparator are shared here, and it is recorded in the uniformity table rather than converted into a downgrade.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 61. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot serious—
Indirectnessnot seriousNot downgraded, for the same reasons as the first-event estimand, which draws on the same two trials. One difference is worth naming rather than inheriting: this endpoint counts hospitalisations only, so it is a narrower quantity than the composite estimands and a reader who wants a mortality-inclusive answer should not read this row as one.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 62. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot serious—
Indirectnessnot seriousNot downgraded. Death from any cause is the outcome the question names, measured directly, in the populations the question names. What a reader must not do is read this estimand as covering the same evidence base as the others: its trial pair is different from every other pool in this object, and one of its two trials is by a wide margin the smallest contributing trial here.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 63. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot assessable—
Indirectnessnot seriousNot downgraded. The trial's population, intervention and comparator are the ones this review is about. The outcome is the unusual thing, and it is unusual in form rather than indirect in content: a hierarchical composite whose components are death, hospitalisation and a walk test is a direct measurement of three things this review cares about, combined by a prespecified rule. It is not a surrogate.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres

Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)

Certainty: Pending

Started at high — every contributing study is a randomised controlled trial.

The stored derivation of this rating is not shown, because it ends in the level this review is withholding. It is held with the assessment and will be published with the adjudicated rating.

Table 64. Certainty of the evidence (GRADE)
DomainRatingWhy it was rated that way
Risk of biaspendingThis domain is not final: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Its recorded reasoning is kept with the assessment rather than shown here as a settled judgement.
Inconsistencynot assessable—
IndirectnessseriousDowngraded to serious, and this is the only indirectness downgrade in this object. The outcome is exercise capacity, which is a measure of function rather than of the clinical events this review's question is otherwise about. It is carried because a regulator's heart-failure indication rests on it and because the trial designated it as its primary, not because it answers the event question; and a reader who takes this certainty rating as bearing on hospitalisation or death has read across an endpoint boundary that the object marks here.
Imprecisionserious—
Publication biasnot assessable—

In this section: Paper · Title · Abstract · Introduction · Methods — search · Methods — eligibility criteria · Methods — how many studies at each stage · Methods — outcomes sought at every registered rank · Methods — synthesis · Results · Risk of bias in the included results · Certainty of the evidence · Comparison with published syntheses · Limitations · Data availability · Software availability · Note on registration · References · Figures · Trial characteristics · Submission conformance · Not reported in this record

Paper

Each statement below cites the record it came from; those sources are listed at the end of every section. Where the record holds nothing, the section says so by name rather than being left out, so a procedure that was not carried out can be told from one that simply was never mentioned.

Title

Intravenous iron against placebo or usual care in heart failure with iron deficiency: six outcomes under four effect measures, pooled within three families and across none, with the two endpoints that carry no ordinary interval reported from single trials1

Sources for this section (1)
  1. title

Abstract

Question. In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately?1

Methods. ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 was searched; estimates were pooled under a random-effects model with the REML estimator; risk of bias was assessed with RoB 2 (Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials); and certainty was rated with GRADE.2

Results. Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio: 0.978 (0.752 to 1.27) across 2 trials; Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio: 0.796 (0.686 to 0.923) across 2 trials; Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio: 0.807 (0.686 to 0.949) across 2 trials; Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio: 0.764 (0.636 to 0.919) across 2 trials; 1 of these pooled outcome(s) carries a stated qualification -- a referral or a recorded finding -- given in full in Results and not reproduced here; and no statistical heterogeneity was detected (I-squared 0%), though heterogeneity cannot be reliably assessed with two trials.3

Sources for this section (3)
  1. question
  2. search.databases, screening.eligibility, results.by_outcome, risk_of_bias.by_outcome, grade.by_outcome
  3. results.by_outcome

Introduction

1Background. This review asks: In adults with heart failure and iron deficiency, what is the effect of intravenous iron restricted here to ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose compared with placebo or usual care on recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure with and without cardiovascular death, on the time to a first such event, on death from any cause, on a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisation and walk distance, and on exercise capacity itself -- with each of those questions answered separately? It pools 2 randomised trials, against a saline placebo, except on the recurrent-composite estimand where one contributing trial randomised against usual care. The outcomes pooled are Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio; Time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio; Recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio; Time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio; A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio; Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres.

Sources for this section (1)
  1. manuscript.introduction

Searches were executed in ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 -- query 1, narrower, and it missed two included trials on 2026-08-19 with the query, verbatim: query.cond="chronic heart failure"; query.intr="ferric carboxymaltose OR iron sucrose OR ferric derisomaltose OR iron isomaltoside"; filter.advanced=area[StudyType]interventional; pageSize=100; countTotal=true. It returned 16 record(s). This query surfaced only 3 of this object's 5 own included trials. It missed AFFIRM-AHF (NCT02937454), whose registered condition is 'Iron Deficiency; Heart Failure', and HEART-FID (NCT03037931), registered as 'Heart Failure; Iron-deficiency'. Neither carries the word 'chronic'. This is the same defect shape that dropped DELIVER from the sglt2-hf query: a condition term one word narrower than the registry's own wording silently loses included trials. It is recorded rather than replaced, because a search's misses are the only available evidence about its recall.1

Searches were executed in ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 -- query 2, broader, full recall on the included set on 2026-08-19 with the query, verbatim: query.cond="heart failure"; query.intr="ferric carboxymaltose OR iron sucrose OR ferric derisomaltose OR iron isomaltoside OR intravenous iron"; filter.advanced=area[StudyType]interventional; pageSize=200; countTotal=true. It returned 47 record(s).2

Sources for this section (2)
  1. search.databases[0]
  2. search.databases[1]

Methods — eligibility criteria

Eligibility turns on population, intervention, comparator, route and outcome. The population is adults with heart failure and iron deficiency. The intervention is intravenous iron as ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose. The comparator is placebo OR usual care -- and the second half is load-bearing rather than generous: one contributing trial randomised against usual care, so a placebo-only criterion would exclude it, which is the defect this criterion was written to avoid. The outcome criterion is that the trial designates a CLINICAL-EVENT endpoint, or a registered functional primary that a regulator relies on. The word adjudicated is deliberately absent from this criterion, and the reason is not that adjudication is rare here: two contributing trials' staged sources state it plainly -- one abstract records masked adjudication of the outcomes, and one full text records an independent clinical endpoint committee adjudicating all hospitalisations and deaths. What cannot be shown is that every contributing trial's staged sources establish it, so a criterion demanding adjudication would be one this review could not show all its own members satisfy. An earlier version of this sentence said only one trial's sources state adjudication, which a later correction in this same object contradicted the moment it established the second -- a fix that created its own inconsistency by not sweeping back to the sentences that quantify over the fact it added. NO criterion refers to membership of a list.1

Each criterion above is recorded with the source it was derived from in `screening.eligibility_provenance`; none is asserted here without one.2

Sources for this section (2)
  1. screening.eligibility
  2. screening.eligibility_provenance

Methods — how many studies at each stage

The PRISMA 2020 flow counts are held for this review and reconcile with the executed searches above; they are set out in the flow figure and its accompanying counts.1

The unscreened remainder is 0.2

Records at every stage of screening. k is reported at each stage rather than as a single number, because each stage is what the instrument at that stage could actually decide.3
StageRecords
Records surfaced by the executed searches47
Records where the topic drug's role in the trial could be located43
Records where the topic drug is the randomised intervention34
Records where the topic drug is the comparator instead6
Records where the topic drug is background therapy in both arms3
Records where the role could not be decided either way4
Trials included in this review5
Surfaced records not yet screened0
Sources for this section (3)
  1. prisma_flow
  2. k_cascade.k_unscreened_remainder
  3. k_cascade

Methods — outcomes sought at every registered rank

Every registered rank -- primary, secondary and other -- was read for 5 of 5 contributing trials before any decision about which outcomes could be combined; each records the time it was read.1

Sources for this section (1)
  1. inputs.trials[].all_ranks_read_utc

Methods — synthesis

For recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio, a random model was fitted with the REML estimator.1

For time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio, a random model was fitted with the REML estimator.2

For recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratio, a random model was fitted with the REML estimator.3

For time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratio, a random model was fitted with the REML estimator.4

Intervals are 95% confidence intervals.5

Methodological decisions follow Higgins JPT, Thomas J, Chandler J, Cumpston M, Li T, Page MJ, et al (editors). Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 6.5.1. Cochrane, 2025., version 6.5.1, and the sections relied on are listed in the object rather than cited generically.6

Risk of bias was assessed with RoB 2 (Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials) (22 August 2019 version, as reproduced in the Cochrane Handbook), following Higgins JPT, Savovic J, Page MJ, Elbers RG, Sterne JAC. Chapter 8: Assessing risk of bias in a randomized trial. In: Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 6.5.1. A result, not a study -- Handbook 8.2: 'risk of bias is assessed for a specific result'. Every judgement below names its outcome. 10 result-level assessments were made. A domain that cannot be judged from the registration and the published report is no information, never LOW. Low-by-default asserts a fact; high-by-default invents a defect.7

A ceiling applies to every risk-of-bias judgement in this review; it is stated with the assessment itself rather than summarised here.8

Certainty of evidence was rated with GRADE, following Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 6.5.1, Chapter 14: Completing 'Summary of findings' tables and grading the certainty of the evidence. HIGH for a body of randomised evidence, then rated down with reasons. 4 pooled outcome(s) were rated. No domain is rated UP. Rating up for large effect or dose-response applies to observational evidence that has not already been rated down, and neither condition holds here. 2 outcome(s) were not rated because their pool is declined or withdrawn: there is no effect estimate to rate the certainty of, and rating one would be certainty about a number this review refused to publish.9

Sources for this section (9)
  1. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.model, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.estimator_used
  2. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.model, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.estimator_used
  3. results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.model, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.estimator_used
  4. results.by_outcome.acm.model, results.by_outcome.acm.estimator_used
  5. config.confidence_level
  6. methodological_authority.reference
  7. risk_of_bias.tool, risk_of_bias.by_outcome
  8. risk_of_bias.ceiling
  9. grade.approach, grade.by_outcome

Results

The pooled rate ratio for recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death was 0.807 (0.686 to 0.949, 95% interval) across 2 trials, against a saline placebo, except on the recurrent-composite estimand where one contributing trial randomised against usual care.1

Noted on this pool. Four pools on this object are affected, not only this one: hfh cvd recurrent (RATE_RATIO 0.8066), hfh cvd first (HR 0.7957), hfh recurrent (RATE_RATIO 0.7645), acm (HR 0.978). This pool is labelled random-effects and its interval is a fixed-effect interval. tau-squared is estimated as exactly 0.0, and when tau-squared is zero the random-effects weights reduce to the inverse-variance weights and the interval is identical to the fixed-effect one. The model specification is not false -- a random-effects model whose variance component is estimated at zero is still the model that was fitted. What is misleading is reading the label as a promise about the interval: it collapsed to the common-effect result, and a reader who sees 'random-effects' and infers that between-study variation was allowed for is inferring something this interval does not contain. And with k = 2 that estimate carries almost no information. A variance component estimated from two studies is estimated from one degree of freedom; tau-squared = 0 there means 'the two results are close enough that the estimator was driven to its boundary', not 'these trials agree'. Two points cannot demonstrate agreement. The estimate and interval are unchanged. What is recorded is that a reader should read this interval as a fixed-effect one and should not take tau-squared = 0 as evidence of consistency.2

The trials' results were closely consistent with one another: I-squared, the share of the variation between them that is more than chance alone would produce, was 0%; the estimated variance of the true effects between trials (tau-squared) was 0, the heterogeneity test statistic Q was 0.0499, on degrees of freedom 1. Computed from Q and its single degree of freedom. With two trials this statistic has almost no power to detect heterogeneity, so a low value is consistent both with agreement and with not being able to tell, and it is reported with that caveat rather than as reassurance. What the statistic cannot see at all are the dimensions the uniformity table records, because those are differences in the question each trial answered rather than in its answer.3

The grounds for pooling are recorded as: A single effect measure, a single outcome concept and a single unit of analysis, across trials that share no participant and no control group. Where a later pool on this page rests on the same grounds, they are not restated.4

The pooled hazard ratio for time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure was 0.796 (0.686 to 0.923, 95% interval) across 2 trials, against a saline placebo.5

The trials' results were closely consistent with one another: I-squared, the share of the variation between them that is more than chance alone would produce, was 0%; the estimated variance of the true effects between trials (tau-squared) was 0, the heterogeneity test statistic Q was 0.0067, on degrees of freedom 1. The caveat recorded above for recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death applies here too.6

The pooled rate ratio for recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component was 0.764 (0.636 to 0.919, 95% interval) across 2 trials, against a saline placebo.7

The trials' results were closely consistent with one another: I-squared, the share of the variation between them that is more than chance alone would produce, was 0%; the estimated variance of the true effects between trials (tau-squared) was 0, the heterogeneity test statistic Q was 0.168, on degrees of freedom 1. The caveat recorded above for recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death applies here too.8

The pooled hazard ratio for time to death from any cause was 0.978 (0.752 to 1.27, 95% interval) across 2 trials, against a saline placebo.9

The trials' results were closely consistent with one another: I-squared, the share of the variation between them that is more than chance alone would produce, was 0%; the estimated variance of the true effects between trials (tau-squared) was 0, the heterogeneity test statistic Q was 0.0643, on degrees of freedom 1. The caveat recorded above for recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death applies here too.10

A hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio. Only one trial reports this outcome, so nothing is pooled, and the reason is stated rather than the outcome being quietly omitted: Only one contributing trial reports this estimand, and the form of the quantity would prevent pooling even if a second did: it counts pairs rather than participants or events, its direction of benefit is inverted relative to every other ratio here, and its interval is not at the level the others use.11

The trial that did report it found win ratio 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23) in NCT03037931.12

Change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres. Only one trial reports this outcome, so nothing is pooled, and the reason is stated rather than the outcome being quietly omitted: Only one staged source prints an extractable between-arm difference for this endpoint, and that -- not the form of the quantity -- is why nothing is pooled. A mean difference in metres on a common scale is poolable by generic inverse variance like any other, so a later lane that obtains the full texts of the other trials registering a walk-distance endpoint could pool this estimand properly. An earlier version of this field said the form would prevent it, which is stricter than the Handbook, false of a mean difference, and contradicted by this object's own handbook block three fields away.13

The trial that did report it found mean difference 33 (11.4 to 54.6) in NCT01453608.14

The full model output for every pooled outcome -- the call, the estimator, the heterogeneity statistics and the back-transformed interval -- is stored verbatim on this review object at `results.by_outcome.<outcome>.r_output.verbatim`. It is not reproduced as an Extended data section in this article; an earlier version of this sentence said it was, and no such section exists.15

Sources for this section (15)
  1. outcomes[id=hfh_cvd_recurrent].name, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.pooled, config.confidence_level, outcomes[id=hfh_cvd_recurrent].comparator
  2. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.POOL_FINDINGS_2026_08_21
  3. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.heterogeneity.i2, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.heterogeneity.tau2, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.heterogeneity.q, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.heterogeneity.df, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.heterogeneity_status
  4. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.poolable_reason
  5. outcomes[id=hfh_cvd_first].name, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.pooled, config.confidence_level, outcomes[id=hfh_cvd_first].comparator
  6. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.heterogeneity.i2, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.heterogeneity.tau2, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.heterogeneity.q, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.heterogeneity.df, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.heterogeneity_status
  7. outcomes[id=hfh_recurrent].name, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.pooled, config.confidence_level, outcomes[id=hfh_recurrent].comparator
  8. results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.heterogeneity.i2, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.heterogeneity.tau2, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.heterogeneity.q, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.heterogeneity.df, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.heterogeneity_status
  9. outcomes[id=acm].name, results.by_outcome.acm.pooled, config.confidence_level, outcomes[id=acm].comparator
  10. results.by_outcome.acm.heterogeneity.i2, results.by_outcome.acm.heterogeneity.tau2, results.by_outcome.acm.heterogeneity.q, results.by_outcome.acm.heterogeneity.df, results.by_outcome.acm.heterogeneity_status
  11. outcomes[id=hierarchical_primary].name, results.by_outcome.hierarchical_primary.poolable_reason
  12. results.by_outcome.hierarchical_primary.per_trial
  13. outcomes[id=six_min_walk_24w].name, results.by_outcome.six_min_walk_24w.poolable_reason
  14. results.by_outcome.six_min_walk_24w.per_trial
  15. results.by_outcome

Risk of bias in the included results

Risk of bias was assessed with RoB 2 at the level of each reported result, by two assessors reading independently. Their judgements differ on 6 of the 10 results and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Assessor 1 recorded: 3 at some concerns, 7 at no information. Assessor 2 recorded: 5 at some concerns, 5 at no information. Both are shown in the risk-of-bias table; neither is the review's finding. The per-domain judgements behind them are recorded with the extracted data.1

Sources for this section (1)
  1. risk_of_bias.SECOND_ASSESSOR_2026_08_21.DISAGREEMENT_RATE, risk_of_bias.SECOND_ASSESSOR_2026_08_21.PER_DOMAIN, risk_of_bias.SECOND_ASSESSOR_2026_08_21.assessor_1, risk_of_bias.SECOND_ASSESSOR_2026_08_21.each_disagreement, risk_of_bias.SECOND_ASSESSOR_2026_08_21.how_it_was_asked, risk_of_bias.ceiling.statement, risk_of_bias.default_rule, risk_of_bias.tool

Certainty of the evidence

Certainty was rated with GRADE. HIGH for a body of randomised evidence, then rated down with reasons.1

No domain is rated UP. Rating up for large effect or dose-response applies to observational evidence that has not already been rated down, and neither condition holds here.2

This certainty rating is pending, not rated. It rests on a risk-of-bias judgement that this review has not finalised: two assessors read every contributing result independently, they disagree, and no adjudication has been performed, so this review holds no final risk-of-bias judgement for these results. Cochrane rates certainty per outcome by aggregating the risk-of-bias judgements of the results contributing to it, so a certainty rating cannot be more final than the risk-of-bias assessment it reads. The rating this object currently records, and the steps behind it, are shown below as the work so far rather than as this review's answer. No level is published for this outcome -- not the recorded one, not a more cautious one, and not a midpoint -- because choosing one would be the judgement that has not been made.3

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication bias +04

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication bias +05

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication bias +06

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication bias +07

Where a result is rated worse than LOW overall, the domain carrying that judgement is: missing outcome data on 7 result(s), the randomisation process on 3 result(s), deviations from the intended intervention on 3 result(s), selection of the reported result on 3 result(s), measurement of the outcome on 1 result(s). The overall rating is the worst domain, so these are the domains that determine it.8

Certainty of the evidence, by outcome, with every rating step9
OutcomeCertaintykStarted atRating steps
time to death from any cause, as a hazard ratioPending2HIGHthe steps taken so far, not a final rating: risk of bias: HIGH to MODERATE, down 1 level(s) -- Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): no information=2. Not one reaches LOW -- selection of the reported result cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and the randomisation process cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at no information. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.; inconsistency: not rated down -- I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW i-squared does not show the trials measure the same thing (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.; indirectness: not rated down -- The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.; imprecision: MODERATE to LOW, down 1 level(s) -- The 95% interval (0.7523 to 1.271) crosses the no-difference value, so the evidence is compatible with benefit and with harm. Rated down, not argued away.; publication bias: not rated down -- k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is undetected rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.
time to a first cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratioPending2HIGHthe steps taken so far, not a final rating: risk of bias: HIGH to MODERATE, down 1 level(s) -- Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): no information=2. Not one reaches LOW -- selection of the reported result cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and the randomisation process cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at no information. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.; inconsistency: not rated down -- I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW i-squared does not show the trials measure the same thing (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.; indirectness: not rated down -- The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.; imprecision: MODERATE to LOW, down 1 level(s) -- k = 2. The interval (0.6857 to 0.9233) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.; publication bias: not rated down -- k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is undetected rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.
recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratioPending2HIGHthe steps taken so far, not a final rating: risk of bias: HIGH to MODERATE, down 1 level(s) -- Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): no information=1, some concerns=1. Not one reaches LOW -- selection of the reported result cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and the randomisation process cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 1 have at least one domain at no information. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.; inconsistency: not rated down -- I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW i-squared does not show the trials measure the same thing (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.; indirectness: not rated down -- The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.; imprecision: MODERATE to LOW, down 1 level(s) -- k = 2. The interval (0.6856 to 0.9488) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.; publication bias: not rated down -- k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is undetected rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.
recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure alone, with no death component, as a rate ratioPending2HIGHthe steps taken so far, not a final rating: risk of bias: HIGH to MODERATE, down 1 level(s) -- Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): no information=2. Not one reaches LOW -- selection of the reported result cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and the randomisation process cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at no information. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.; inconsistency: not rated down -- I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW i-squared does not show the trials measure the same thing (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.; indirectness: not rated down -- The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.; imprecision: MODERATE to LOW, down 1 level(s) -- k = 2. The interval (0.636 to 0.9191) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.; publication bias: not rated down -- k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is undetected rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.
a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioPending1no downgrade recorded
change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresPending1no downgrade recorded
Sources for this section (9)
  1. grade.approach
  2. grade.not_rated_up
  3. risk_of_bias.by_outcome
  4. grade.by_outcome.acm.summary
  5. grade.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.summary
  6. grade.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.summary
  7. grade.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.summary
  8. bookkeeping_2026_08_21.which_risk_of_bias_domains_drove_the_rating
  9. grade.by_outcome.acm, grade.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first, grade.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent, grade.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent, grade.by_outcome.hierarchical_primary, grade.by_outcome.six_min_walk_24w

Comparison with published syntheses

Published syntheses were identified as follows. PubMed E-utilities; the query, the counts and a decision for every record are in ssot/iv-iron-hf/appraisal/the screen of published syntheses.json. 61 records matched and all 61 were read at abstract level; 5 name at least one trial we pool.1

Sources for this section (1)
  1. published_comparison._how_identified

Limitations

Known limitation of the screen: No multi-database systematic search was run and nothing here should be read as though one had been. Some of the screened-out records are characterised from a prior synthesis's table rather than from the trials' own reports, and each of those rows says so on itself; how many is computed into the field beside this one rather than typed here. What IS evidenced is that the search strategy can re-derive every trial this review contains: the rediscovery test, with the query that fails that test and the reason it fails, is staged beside this object.1

Eligible trials that do not contribute: Four trials meet this review's population, intervention and comparator criteria and contribute nothing, because they have not reported. They are listed rather than left absent so that a reader can tell the category was considered and can see what this review will have to revisit. Each was surfaced by the corrected class-keyed query recorded in the staged search record.2

This review does not claim no internal check is described as independent verification. A script that reads this object and reports it consistent has confirmed consistency and nothing else. What CAN be said about the arithmetic here is narrower and is worth saying precisely: every pooled figure was computed twice, by this builder and by a separate script, and checked against an external meta-analysis engine, and the two internal paths share no code beyond the estimator module they both call.3

4 claim(s) previously made about this review were corrected and the corrections are retained on the object rather than overwritten.4

What this review does not give a clinician: the number of events in each arm, any absolute effect or number needed to treat and any measure of harm. A relative effect cannot be turned into the benefit or the risk facing one patient without them, so this review can support a judgement about what these trials found and not a judgement about what to do.5

Sources for this section (5)
  1. screening.known_limitation
  2. eligible_but_not_contributing.note
  3. verification_basis.what_is_not_claimed
  4. claims_corrected
  5. results.by_outcome

Data availability

Every trial in this review is keyed to a registration identifier, verified by live fetch of the raw ClinicalTrials.gov v2 record and comparison of the returned nctId against the id stored on this object on 2026-08-19.1

The underlying records are the 15 source(s) listed under References; each names the layer it was read at, so a reader can tell a registry record from a published report.2

Registration identifiers, and whether each was verified3
RegistrationVerifiedLink
NCT02937454Truehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02937454
NCT02642562Truehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02642562
NCT03036462Truehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03036462
NCT03037931Truehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03037931
NCT01453608Truehttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT01453608
Sources for this section (3)
  1. registration_identity.method
  2. sources
  3. registration_identity.trials

Software availability

Analyses were computed under R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1.1

Intervals are reported at the 95% level.2

Sources for this section (2)
  1. results.by_outcome
  2. config.confidence_level

Note on registration

Protocol status. Prespecified: False. A protocol specified before data collection is a historical fact about the past and cannot be created retrospectively. Writing one now and calling it prespecified would invalidate every other refusal on these pages, because a reader who caught it would be right to disbelieve all of them.1

Eligibility criteria were derived post hoc from the trials and the methodological authority, and the derivation is recorded element by element in `screening.eligibility_provenance` with the source of each.2

Authority: Mecir R107 permits post-hoc eligibility criteria provided they are declared as such. They are declared, here and on the page, and the page says 'derived, post hoc' in its heading.3

No PROSPERO registration or protocol record is held on this object. That is not the same as knowing this review was not registered, and neither claim is made. It is recorded here as an absence so that a reader does not have to infer it from silence.4

Sources for this section (4)
  1. protocol
  2. protocol.what_was_actually_done
  3. protocol.authority_permitting_it
  4. bookkeeping_2026_08_21.whether_this_review_was_prospectively_registered

References

Included studies, by registration1
TrialRegistrationRegistryRead
NCT01453608ClinicalTrials.gov
NCT02642562ClinicalTrials.gov
NCT02937454ClinicalTrials.gov
NCT03036462ClinicalTrials.gov
NCT03037931ClinicalTrials.gov
Methods guidance and software, with what each is cited for2
Cited forReference
risk of bias in the included resultsSterne JAC, Savovic J, Page MJ, et al. RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ. 2019;366:l4898. doi:10.1136/bmj.l4898
certainty of the evidenceSchunemann HJ, Higgins JPT, Vist GE, et al. Chapter 14: Completing 'Summary of findings' tables and grading the certainty of the evidence. In: Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 6.5. Cochrane; 2024.
the model fitted, as R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1Viechtbauer W. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J Stat Softw. 2010;36(3):1-48. doi:10.18637/jss.v036.i03
the reporting guideline this manuscript is written againstPage MJ, McKenzie JE, Bossuyt PM, et al. The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ. 2021;372:n71. doi:10.1136/bmj.n71
Sources this review reads, with the layer each was read at3
IdLayerSourceLocation
EMA_ART31Regulator: EMA, the only document this class hasIntravenous iron-containing medicinal products, Article 31 referral annexhttps://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/referrals/intravenous-iron-containing-medicinal-products
FDA_LABEL_INJECTAFERRegulator: FDA approved labelInjectafer (ferric carboxymaltose) US prescribing informationhttps://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2025/203565s027lbl.pdf
FDA_LABEL_MONOFERRICRegulator: FDA approved label, the other moleculeMonoferric (ferric derisomaltose) US prescribing informationhttps://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2024/208171s003lbl.pdf
OA_AFFIRM2020Primary paper (abstract, open)Ponikowski et al. Ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after acute heart failure. Lancet 2020.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/
OA_CONFIRMHF2015Primary paper (abstract and full text, open)Ponikowski et al. Beneficial effects of long-term intravenous iron therapy with ferric carboxymaltose in patients with symptomatic heart failure and ihttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/
OA_CONFIRMHF2015_FULLTEXTPrimary paper (full text, open)Ponikowski et al. Beneficial effects of long-term intravenous iron therapy with ferric carboxymaltose in patients with symptomatic heart failure and ihttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/
OA_FAIRHF2_2025Primary paper (abstract, open)Anker et al. Intravenous Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure With Iron Deficiency: The FAIR-HF2 DZHK05 Randomized Clinical Trial. Jama 2025.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40159390/
OA_HEARTFID2023Primary paper (abstract, open)Mentz et al. Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure with Iron Deficiency. N Engl J Med 2023.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632463/
OA_IRONMAN2022Primary paper (abstract, open)Kalra et al. Intravenous ferric derisomaltose in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency in the UK (ironman). Lancet 2022.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36347265/
OLD_GENERATOR_PROBERecord of the artefact this object replacesDefect probe of the live page this rebuild overwriteshttps://mahmood726-cyber.github.io/rapidmeta-finerenone/IV_IRON_HF_REVIEW.html
PM_GRAHAM2023Prior synthesis (abstract and full text, open)Graham et al. Intravenous iron in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency: an updated meta-analysis. Eur J Heart Fail 2023.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/
PM_PONIKOWSKI2023Prior synthesis (abstract, open)Ponikowski et al. Efficacy of ferric carboxymaltose in heart failure with iron deficiency: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Eur Heart J 2023.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632415/
REG_CTGOVRegistryClinicalTrials.gov records for all five contributing trialshttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02937454
REG_HEARTFID_SAPRegistry: posted protocol and statistical analysis planHEART-FID protocol and statistical analysis plan, version 1.3https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03037931
SEARCH_RECORDRecord of what the search does and does not findPrior-synthesis and completeness search record, 2026-08-10https://clinicaltrials.gov/
Sources for this section (3)
  1. manuscript.references
  2. manuscript.references
  3. sources

Figures

0.5 0.7 1 1.2 1.5 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31) confirm-hf 0.89 (0.41 to 1.93) Pooled (HR)
Figure 1. Forest plot -- time to death from ANY cause, as a hazard ratio. k = 2.1
Figure 2 not drawn. k = 2. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 2. Funnel plot -- time to death from ANY cause, as a hazard ratio. k = 2.2
0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HR (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.8 (0.66 to 0.98) fair-hf2 0.79 (0.63 to 0.99) Pooled (HR)
Figure 3. Forest plot -- time to a FIRST cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio. k = 2.3
Figure 4 not drawn. k = 2. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 4. Funnel plot -- time to a FIRST cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure, as a hazard ratio. k = 2.4
0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.79 (0.62 to 1.01) ironman 0.82 (0.66 to 1.02) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)
Figure 5. Forest plot -- recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio. k = 2.5
Figure 6 not drawn. k = 2. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 6. Funnel plot -- recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure together with cardiovascular death, as a rate ratio. k = 2.6
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RATE_RATIO (log scale). 1 = no difference. affirm-ahf 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) fair-hf2 0.8 (0.6 to 1.06) Pooled (RATE_RATIO)
Figure 7. Forest plot -- recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure ALONE, with no death component, as a rate ratio. k = 2.7
Figure 8 not drawn. k = 2. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 8. Funnel plot -- recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure ALONE, with no death component, as a rate ratio. k = 2.8
1 1.2 Effect (log scale). 1 = no difference. heart-fid 1.1 (0.99 to 1.23)
Figure 9. Forest plot -- a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio. k = 1.9
Figure 10 not drawn. k = 1. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 10. Funnel plot -- a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratio. k = 1.10
0 54.6 Effect. 0 = no difference. confirm-hf 33 (11.4 to 54.6)
Figure 11. Forest plot -- change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres. k = 1.11
Figure 12 not drawn. k = 1. A funnel plot and its asymmetry tests have almost no power below about ten trials (Cochrane Handbook 13.3.5.4), so a funnel drawn here would invite a reading of asymmetry this evidence cannot support. It is declined rather than drawn, and this slot says so where the plot would have been.
Figure 12. Funnel plot -- change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metres. k = 1.12
Sources for this section (12)
  1. results.by_outcome.acm.per_trial, results.by_outcome.acm.pooled
  2. results.by_outcome.acm.per_trial, results.by_outcome.acm.pooled
  3. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.pooled
  4. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_first.pooled
  5. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.pooled
  6. results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_cvd_recurrent.pooled
  7. results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.pooled
  8. results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.per_trial, results.by_outcome.hfh_recurrent.pooled
  9. results.by_outcome.hierarchical_primary.per_trial
  10. results.by_outcome.hierarchical_primary.per_trial
  11. results.by_outcome.six_min_walk_24w.per_trial
  12. results.by_outcome.six_min_walk_24w.per_trial

Trial characteristics

Characteristics of every trial contributing to this review1
RegistrationTrialParticipantsRandomisedPrimary outcome measured overDesign
NCT01453608CONFIRM-HFambulatory symptomatic adults with heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or less, elevated natriuretic peptides and iron deficiency30424 weeksmulticentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised one to one, with a functional primary endpoint rather than a clinical-event one.
NCT02642562IRONMANadults with heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or less, and transferrin saturation below 20% or serum ferritin below 100 micrograms per litre1137Minimum of 3 months follow-up from last patient recruitedprospective, randomised, OPEN-LABEL trial with masked adjudication of the outcomes -- a blinded-endpoint design, not a blinded-treatment one.
NCT02937454AFFIRM-AHFadults hospitalised for acute heart failure with concomitant iron deficiency and a left ventricular ejection fraction below 50%, randomised before hospital discharge1132up to 52 weeks after randomizationphase 4, multicentre, double-blind, randomised one to one against placebo, with treatments administered in black syringes by personnel taking no study assessments.
NCT03036462FAIR-HF2adults with heart failure defined by a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or less, and iron deficiency1105The whole follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; The wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.; During the wohle follow-up period. We aim for a minimum average follow-up of >2 years. We aim for a minimum follow-up of 6 months for all patients, but not less than 3 months.phase 4, multicentre, randomised against a saline placebo, at 70 clinic sites in six European countries, with three co-primary endpoints whose joint significance is governed by a Hochberg procedure.
NCT03037931HEART-FIDambulatory adults with heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less, and iron deficiency30651 year; 6 monthsdouble-blind, randomised one to one against placebo, with a hierarchical composite primary endpoint and a significance level set at 0.01.
Sources for this section (1)
  1. inputs.trials

Submission conformance

This review was built to page standard 1.12.0-2026-08-19 (PAGE-STANDARD.md), by ssot/build_to_standard.py on 2026-08-19. A page built below the current standard is knowably below it rather than silently stale.1

12 machine-checked properties were verified for this page before it was published; the checks and their names are recorded with the build rather than here.2

Sources for this section (2)
  1. build_stamp.page_standard_version
  2. build_stamp.held

Not reported in this record

The items below were not written because the record does not hold what they would be composed from. They are named here so that an absence is not mistaken for an omission.

Items not reported, and why
Article areaItem not reportedReason
AbstractThe Background sentence of the abstractBackground is argument -- why this question matters -- and no arrangement of the quantities this object holds yields it. It is emitted only from an authored field and there is no composition path for it here
AbstractThe Conclusions sentence of the abstractA conclusion is argument -- what a reader should now believe -- and it is emitted only from an authored field. Composing one from the estimate would be this renderer telling the reader what to conclude, which no field supports
Methods — synthesisThe model/estimator sentence for a hierarchical composite of death, hospitalisations for heart failure and change in walk distance, as an unmatched win ratioNo pooled estimate was produced for this outcome, so no model was fitted and none is described
Methods — synthesisThe model/estimator sentence for change in six-minute walk distance at the primary timepoint, in metresNo pooled estimate was produced for this outcome, so no model was fitted and none is described
Methods — synthesisThe claim that records were screened in duplicate -- and this topic owes one rather than merely lacking one: No second independent screen was run for this topicThis is recorded as owed rather than described: the remedy is to RUN one, and writing a duplicate-screening sentence without one would be the defect this whole exercise exists to prevent.
Methods — synthesisThe claim that the review methods were prespecified before data collectionThis refusal is permanent and is not a gap to be filled. A protocol specified before data collection is a historical fact about the past and cannot be created retrospectively. Writing one now and calling it prespecified would invalidate every other refusal on these pages, because a reader who caught it would be right to disbelieve all of them. Eligibility criteria were derived post hoc from the trials and the methodological authority, and the derivation is recorded element by element in `screening.eligibility_provenance` with the source of each. Mecir R107 permits post-hoc eligibility criteria provided they are declared as such. They are declared, here and on the page, and the page says 'derived, post hoc' in its heading.

In this section: hfh cvd recurrent · Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose · Certainty · hfh cvd first · Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose · Certainty · hfh recurrent · Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose · Certainty · acm · Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose · Certainty

Format: Cochrane Handbook v6.5, chapter 14 (14.1.2 contents, 14.1.3 absolute effects). The FIELDS are fixed by the Handbook so a reader can check the shape of this table as well as its numbers.

hfh cvd recurrent

Table 65. hfh cvd recurrent
Relative effect№ participants№ studies
RATE_RATIO 0.8066 (0.6856 to 0.9488)67432

Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose

Handbook 14.1.3 asks for absolute effects at STATED baseline risks. A single assumed baseline risk is a modelling choice made on behalf of a jurisdiction we do not know, so a GRID is given instead and the reader applies the row nearest their own incidence. This is arithmetic -- the relative effect multiplied by a baseline -- and it asserts nothing about whether this evidence transfers to that population. The grid is arithmetic the reader parameterises; the refusal below is about transfer. Different claims, kept apart.

Table 66. Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose
Assumed baseline riskRisk with intervention95% CIDifference
1 per 10000.8 per 10000.7 to 0.9-0.2
5 per 10004.0 per 10003.4 to 4.7-1.0
10 per 10008.1 per 10006.9 to 9.5-1.9
50 per 100040.3 per 100034.3 to 47.4-9.7
100 per 100080.7 per 100068.6 to 94.9-19.3
200 per 1000161.3 per 1000137.1 to 189.8-38.7
What the absolute-effect gate says about this outcome (DECLINED): ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled IRR of 0.8066 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.

Certainty

Table 67. Certainty
DomainRating
risk of biasserious
inconsistencynot serious
indirectnessnot serious
imprecisionserious
publication biasnot assessable

Overall certainty as stored: low. The domain ratings are reproduced as STORED JUDGEMENTS; this card does not compute or revise them.

hfh cvd first

Table 68. hfh cvd first
Relative effect№ participants№ studies
HR 0.7957 (0.6857 to 0.9233)67432

Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose

Handbook 14.1.3 asks for absolute effects at STATED baseline risks. A single assumed baseline risk is a modelling choice made on behalf of a jurisdiction we do not know, so a GRID is given instead and the reader applies the row nearest their own incidence. This is arithmetic -- the relative effect multiplied by a baseline -- and it asserts nothing about whether this evidence transfers to that population. The grid is arithmetic the reader parameterises; the refusal below is about transfer. Different claims, kept apart.

Table 69. Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose
Assumed baseline riskRisk with intervention95% CIDifference
1 per 10000.8 per 10000.7 to 0.9-0.2
5 per 10004.0 per 10003.4 to 4.6-1.0
10 per 10008.0 per 10006.9 to 9.2-2.0
50 per 100039.8 per 100034.3 to 46.2-10.2
100 per 100079.6 per 100068.6 to 92.3-20.4
200 per 1000159.1 per 1000137.1 to 184.7-40.9
What the absolute-effect gate says about this outcome (DECLINED): ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled HR of 0.7957 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.

Certainty

Table 70. Certainty
DomainRating
risk of biasserious
inconsistencynot serious
indirectnessnot serious
imprecisionserious
publication biasnot assessable

Overall certainty as stored: low. The domain ratings are reproduced as STORED JUDGEMENTS; this card does not compute or revise them.

hfh recurrent

Table 71. hfh recurrent
Relative effect№ participants№ studies
RATE_RATIO 0.7645 (0.636 to 0.9191)67432

Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose

Handbook 14.1.3 asks for absolute effects at STATED baseline risks. A single assumed baseline risk is a modelling choice made on behalf of a jurisdiction we do not know, so a GRID is given instead and the reader applies the row nearest their own incidence. This is arithmetic -- the relative effect multiplied by a baseline -- and it asserts nothing about whether this evidence transfers to that population. The grid is arithmetic the reader parameterises; the refusal below is about transfer. Different claims, kept apart.

Table 72. Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose
Assumed baseline riskRisk with intervention95% CIDifference
1 per 10000.8 per 10000.6 to 0.9-0.2
5 per 10003.8 per 10003.2 to 4.6-1.2
10 per 10007.6 per 10006.4 to 9.2-2.4
50 per 100038.2 per 100031.8 to 46.0-11.8
100 per 100076.4 per 100063.6 to 91.9-23.6
200 per 1000152.9 per 1000127.2 to 183.8-47.1
What the absolute-effect gate says about this outcome (DECLINED): ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled IRR of 0.7645 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.

Certainty

Table 73. Certainty
DomainRating
risk of biasserious
inconsistencynot serious
indirectnessnot serious
imprecisionserious
publication biasnot assessable

Overall certainty as stored: low. The domain ratings are reproduced as STORED JUDGEMENTS; this card does not compute or revise them.

acm

Table 74. acm
Relative effect№ participants№ studies
HR 0.978 (0.7523 to 1.2714)67432

Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose

Handbook 14.1.3 asks for absolute effects at STATED baseline risks. A single assumed baseline risk is a modelling choice made on behalf of a jurisdiction we do not know, so a GRID is given instead and the reader applies the row nearest their own incidence. This is arithmetic -- the relative effect multiplied by a baseline -- and it asserts nothing about whether this evidence transfers to that population. The grid is arithmetic the reader parameterises; the refusal below is about transfer. Different claims, kept apart.

Table 75. Absolute effect, at baseline risks you choose
Assumed baseline riskRisk with intervention95% CIDifference
1 per 10001.0 per 10000.8 to 1.30.0
5 per 10004.9 per 10003.8 to 6.4-0.1
10 per 10009.8 per 10007.5 to 12.7-0.2
50 per 100048.9 per 100037.6 to 63.6-1.1
100 per 100097.8 per 100075.2 to 127.1-2.2
200 per 1000195.6 per 1000150.5 to 254.3-4.4
What the absolute-effect gate says about this outcome (DECLINED): ⛔ NO DECLARED INDIRECTNESS ARGUMENT. This topic holds a pooled HR of 0.978 but says nothing about how far it transfers -- no rated indirectness domain and no declared question_pico. An absolute table built here would invite a reader to apply this estimate to their own population with no statement of whether that is supported, and arithmetic is not a substitute for that statement.

Certainty

Table 76. Certainty
DomainRating
risk of biasserious
inconsistencynot serious
indirectnessnot serious
imprecisionserious
publication biasnot assessable

Overall certainty as stored: low. The domain ratings are reproduced as STORED JUDGEMENTS; this card does not compute or revise them.

Format: Cochrane Handbook v6.5, chapter 15 (15.6 implications for practice). The twelve considerations below are the GRADE Evidence-to-Decision framework, reproduced in full whether or not this review can answer them.

Table 77. Certainty
ConsiderationAnswerFrom this review
Is the problem a priority?PARTIALLY INFORMEDThe populations the contributing trials enrolled are recorded on this object and are shown in the Extraction tab. Whether the problem is a priority in a given jurisdiction is not a property of those trials.
How substantial are the desirable effects?INFORMEDThe pooled relative effect and its interval, with an absolute-effect grid, are in the Summary of Findings tab.
How substantial are the undesirable effects?NOT ADDRESSEDNo harms block is held on this object.
What is the overall certainty of the evidence?INFORMEDGRADE certainty is stored and is shown beside each outcome in the Summary of Findings tab.
Is there important uncertainty about how much people value the outcomes?NOT ADDRESSEDNo study of how people weigh these outcomes was sought or synthesised. This is a review of trial effects.
Does the balance favour the intervention or the comparison?CANNOT BE DETERMINEDA balance requires values. With values unaddressed, a balance statement would be the review author's preference wearing a panel's authority.
How large are the resource requirements?NOT ADDRESSEDNo cost input of any kind is held.
What is the certainty of the resource evidence?NOT APPLICABLENo resource evidence.
Does cost-effectiveness favour the intervention?NOT ADDRESSEDNo economic evaluation was sought.
What would be the impact on health equity?NOT ADDRESSEDNo registry extraction is held on this object.
Is the intervention acceptable to key stakeholders?NOT ADDRESSEDAcceptability studies are outside this review's scope.
Is the intervention feasible to implement?NOT ADDRESSEDImplementation and delivery are outside this review's scope.
3 of 12 considerations informed or partially informed; 9 not addressed. The empty cells are the point. An evidence-to-decision framework needs values, resource use, equity, acceptability and feasibility; the Handbook places those with the review authors and a guideline panel, and they are not derivable from trial data. A panel handed a complete map of what is unanswered is better served than one handed prose that reads as though it covered all twelve.
Not held in this object. No statistical panel set is held in this object.

Page standard 1.12.0-2026-08-19

Built 2026-08-19 by ssot/build_to_standard.py against PAGE-STANDARD.md. 12 held, 2 refusing. A refusal is a complete outcome; nothing is generated to fill a slot.

Table 78. Page standard 1.12.0-2026-08-19
propertystatereason
P1_executed_searchHELD2 database queries recorded verbatim with dates and counts; PRISMA arithmetic reconciles and the 0-trial unscreened remainder is stated as a number rather than omitted.
P2_k_cascadeHELDk at every stage: surfaced 47, located 43, experimental 34, comparator 6, included 5, unscreened remainder 0.
P3_inclusion_criteriaHELDCriteria provenance block present with predefined=None on its face (state 'NATIVE_TO_THIS_OBJECT').
P4_preconditionsHELDAll 8 recorded with verdict and cited authority: 0 FAIL, 2 NOT-ASSESSABLE. criteria_predefined is NOT-ASSESSABLE -- this object declares neither a provenance block nor a protocol statement, so pre-specification cannot be decided either way.
P5_extraction_tableHELD12 cells: 10 READ with source path and verbatim text, 2 DERIVED with the method named.
P6_analysis_outputHELD4 pool(s) carry verbatim model output with environment and call: acm, hfh_cvd_first, hfh_cvd_recurrent and hfh_recurrent. Nothing is summarised in place of a quotation.
P7_published_comparisonHELD11 check(s) applied against published syntheses with a STATED DENOMINATOR: 8 confirmed, 0 error(s), 1 absent, 2 unresolved. Confirmations are listed in the same detail as errors -- a comparison with room only for their errors could not report that the defects were ours.
P8_registration_identityHELD5 of 5 trial(s) verified live against the registry.
P18_restatement_is_reproducibleHELD1 restatement block(s), each naming a script that resolves on disk: restated_2026_08_19_trailing_placebo -> scripts/regate_cascade_2026_08_19.py
P19_promotion_reaches_derived_blocksHELDinputs.trials, k_cascade.k_included_in_object and prisma_flow.included all say 5; no first-person field in published_comparison declares a k the pooled outcome(s) do not.
P20_cascade_reconcilesHELDk2_role_located=43 == k3+k4+k5, and k0_surfaced=47 == k3+k4+k5+kNA. Both checked, and every failing limb would be reported rather than the first.
P21_ambiguous_question_splitREFUSINGThis object records no split provenance. That is CORRECT for a topic whose question was never ambiguous and it is NOT a pass: this builder cannot tell the two apart, so the property is refused with the reason rather than held on an absence. What would settle it: a `split_provenance` block, or an explicit statement that the question admits one reading.
P22_sharing_recordedHELD3 shared trial(s), each recorded with the topics holding it and why: NCT01453608 in fcm-hf-review; NCT02642562 in fcm-hf-review; NCT02937454 in fcm-hf-review. The object also states that summing per-topic k double-counts.
P23_recall_measuredREFUSING1 of 2 recorded quer(ies) do not state their recall against this review's own included set: ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 -- QUERY 1, NARROWER, AND IT MISSED TWO INCLUDED TRIALS. A query whose recall was never measured may have lost an included trial, and A TRIAL THAT WAS NEVER SURFACED LEAVES NO TRACE IN ANY COUNT -- it cannot appear as an exclusion, a refusal or a remainder.

k at every stage

Table 79. k at every stage
stagek
k0_surfaced47
k2_role_located43
k3_experimental34
k4_comparator6
k5_background3
kNA_not_assessable4
k_included_in_object5
k_unscreened_remainder0
k3_corrected_fromThe placebo-discriminator (ssot/topic_identity.locate, 2026-08-19) is load-bearing here: AFFIRM-AHF and HEART-FID type their IRON arm ACTIVE_COMPARATOR against a PLACEBO_COMPARATOR saline arm and declare NO arm typed EXPERIMENTAL AT ALL. Read literally, 2 of this object's 5 included trials would be scored 'comparator' and the evidence base would shrink silently -- the WITHHOLDING direction.
keyed_onregistration id
k_unscreened_remainder_noteWas 29; all 29 screened on 2026-08-19 (scripts/screen_ivi_remainder.py, dispositions on the object at screening_of_remainder.iv_iron_2026_08_19, each keyed to the criterion it turns on and the registry field that settles it).
remainder_dispositionsEXCLUDED 14, ELIGIBLE NOT POOLABLE 5, ELIGIBLE NO RESULTS YET 10, what this says FIFTEEN OF THE TWENTY-NINE ARE ELIGIBLE. Fourteen fail a stated criterion. The evidence base is not limited by eligibility -- it is limited by ESTIMAND MATCH and by trials that have not reported. Reporting all 29 as 'excluded' would have said the opposite, and would have been the withholding class again: eligible evidence recorded as though it had failed a test., largest pending ICONIC-HF (NCT06929806, n=1900, RECRUITING) registers cardiovascular death and hospitalisation for worsening heart failure -- THE SAME ESTIMAND AS THIS OBJECT'S HEADLINE POOL -- and will be the single largest contributor when it reports. INFERRCT (NCT05759078, n=1000) is the second., notable excluded on outcome FAIR-HF (NCT00520780, n=456) is the trial that established ferric carboxymaltose in heart failure, but this object excludes it on OUTCOME. It meets P/I/C, and it reports a six-minute walk result, but its registered primaries are Patient Global Assessment and NYHA functional class and it designates no clinical-event endpoint. Its staged abstract prints no extractable between-arm difference, dispersion term or interval for walk distance, so there is no cell to extract for this review's walk-distance estimand.
restated_2026_08_19_trailing_placebok2 was 47, k2 now 43, k5 was 5, k5 now 3, kNA was 2, kNA now 4, k3 unchanged 34, why the remainder does not move BOTH MOVERS WENT INTO NOT_ASSESSABLE, WHICH IS NOT A SCREENING QUEUE. k3 is unchanged at 34, so the 29-trial remainder and its dispositions stand exactly as screened. A restatement that changes k5 and kNA without touching k3 changes what the page CLAIMS TO HAVE READ, not what it screened -- and those are two different corrections that would be indistinguishable if only a total were reported., the two records NCT00125996 background -> NOT_ASSESSABLE: the registration declares NO armGroups at all, so role cannot be read from an absent field., NCT00386126 background -> NOT_ASSESSABLE: same, no armGroups., this is the law being applied not bent 'background_or_coadministered' asserts the drug was given in every arm. On a record with no arms declared, that assertion has no input. ABSENT INPUT IS NOT_ASSESSABLE, NEVER A VERDICT -- the same law the preconditions run on, reaching the classifier two commits later than it reached them., measured how Old classifier loaded from git at 7a08bcbe1; surfaced set re-executed from this object's own query and returned 47, identical to the stored k0, so none of the delta is registry drift. scripts/regate_cascade_2026_08_19.py., no included trial changed role Checked against this object's own five.

Inclusion criteria — derived, post hoc

predefined: —  |  post_hoc: — — derived —

—

Table 80. Inclusion criteria — derived, post hoc
limbvaluederived from
———
———
———
———
———
———

Screening of the remainder — — screened, — included, — excluded, — not-assessable

—

k after screening: —. —

Table 81. Screening of the remainder — — screened, — included, — excluded, — not-assessable
failing limbnregistrations

The withholding question, asked at every rank

—

—

Table 82. The withholding question, asked at every rank
registrationrankmatching outcome

Every trial, with its reason

Table 83. Every trial, with its reason
registrationverdictlimbreason

Analysis output — hfh_cvd_recurrent (quoted verbatim)

R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1  |  call: rma(yi = log(est), sei = (log(hi)-log(lo))/(2*qnorm(0.975)), method = "REML")

hfh_cvd_recurrent -- recurrent HF hospitalisations WITH CV death, rate ratio
  unit of analysis: event: each participant contributes every qualifying event
==============================================================================

Random-Effects Model (k = 2; tau^2 estimator: REML)

tau^2 (estimated amount of total heterogeneity): 0 (SE = 0.0197)
tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value):      0
I^2 (total heterogeneity / total variability):   0.00%
H^2 (total variability / sampling variability):  1.00

Test for Heterogeneity:
Q(df = 1) = 0.0499, p-val = 0.8232

Model Results:

estimate      se     zval    pval    ci.lb    ci.ub     
 -0.2150  0.0829  -2.5940  0.0095  -0.3774  -0.0525  ** 

---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Back-transformed:

   pred  ci.lb  ci.ub  pi.lb  pi.ub 
 0.8066 0.6856 0.9488 0.6856 0.9488

The stored pooled point was 0.8066. This independent run reproduces it EXACTLY, digit for digit, from the per-trial estimates already on the object.

Analysis output — hfh_cvd_first (quoted verbatim)

R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1  |  call: rma(yi = log(est), sei = (log(hi)-log(lo))/(2*qnorm(0.975)), method = "REML")

hfh_cvd_first -- FIRST CV death or HF hospitalisation, hazard ratio
  unit of analysis: participant: time to the first component event
==============================================================================

Random-Effects Model (k = 2; tau^2 estimator: REML)

tau^2 (estimated amount of total heterogeneity): 0 (SE = 0.0166)
tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value):      0
I^2 (total heterogeneity / total variability):   0.00%
H^2 (total variability / sampling variability):  1.00

Test for Heterogeneity:
Q(df = 1) = 0.0067, p-val = 0.9346

Model Results:

estimate      se     zval    pval    ci.lb    ci.ub     
 -0.2286  0.0759  -3.0114  0.0026  -0.3774  -0.0798  ** 

---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Back-transformed:

   pred  ci.lb  ci.ub  pi.lb  pi.ub 
 0.7957 0.6857 0.9233 0.6857 0.9233

The stored pooled point was 0.7957. This independent run reproduces it EXACTLY, digit for digit, from the per-trial estimates already on the object.

Analysis output — hfh_recurrent (quoted verbatim)

R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1  |  call: rma(yi = log(est), sei = (log(hi)-log(lo))/(2*qnorm(0.975)), method = "REML")

hfh_recurrent -- recurrent HF hospitalisations ALONE, no death component, rate ratio
  unit of analysis: hospitalisation: each participant contributes every hospitalisation
==============================================================================

Random-Effects Model (k = 2; tau^2 estimator: REML)

tau^2 (estimated amount of total heterogeneity): 0 (SE = 0.0256)
tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value):      0
I^2 (total heterogeneity / total variability):   0.00%
H^2 (total variability / sampling variability):  1.00

Test for Heterogeneity:
Q(df = 1) = 0.1677, p-val = 0.6822

Model Results:

estimate      se     zval    pval    ci.lb    ci.ub     
 -0.2685  0.0939  -2.8583  0.0043  -0.4526  -0.0844  ** 

---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Back-transformed:

   pred  ci.lb  ci.ub  pi.lb  pi.ub 
 0.7645 0.6360 0.9191 0.6360 0.9191

The stored pooled point was 0.7645. This independent run reproduces it EXACTLY, digit for digit, from the per-trial estimates already on the object.

Analysis output — acm (quoted verbatim)

R version 4.6.0 (2026-04-24 ucrt); metafor 5.0.1  |  call: rma(yi = log(est), sei = (log(hi)-log(lo))/(2*qnorm(0.975)), method = "REML")

acm -- death from ANY cause, hazard ratio
  unit of analysis: participant: time to death from any cause
==============================================================================

Random-Effects Model (k = 2; tau^2 estimator: REML)

tau^2 (estimated amount of total heterogeneity): 0 (SE = 0.1247)
tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value):      0
I^2 (total heterogeneity / total variability):   0.00%
H^2 (total variability / sampling variability):  1.00

Test for Heterogeneity:
Q(df = 1) = 0.0643, p-val = 0.7999

Model Results:

estimate      se     zval    pval    ci.lb   ci.ub    
 -0.0223  0.1339  -0.1663  0.8679  -0.2846  0.2401    

---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Back-transformed:

   pred  ci.lb  ci.ub  pi.lb  pi.ub 
 0.9780 0.7523 1.2714 0.7523 1.2714

The stored pooled point was 0.978. This independent run reproduces it EXACTLY, digit for digit, from the per-trial estimates already on the object.

Preconditions

Authority: Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions 6.5, 2024, verified 2026-08-19. Publishable: True.

Table 84. Preconditions
preconditionverdictreasonauthority
population_statedPASSpresent: question carries 429 charactersMECIR C62 'Ensuring meta-analyses are meaningful' (Mandatory, READ 2026-08-19): 'Undertake (or display) a meta-analysis only if participants, interventions, comparisons and outcomes are judged to be s
arm_role_resolvedPASSinputs.trials: all 5 trial(s) carry arms with a readable roleMECIR C62 (Mandatory), 'interventions' limb -- this is a PRECONDITION FOR ASSESSING C62, not an enforcement of it: you cannot judge whether interventions are 'sufficiently similar' without knowing whi
comparators_identifiedPASSevery outcome names a comparator type; 1 DECLARE 'mixed' ['hfh_cvd_recurrent'] -- the object reporting within-outcome comparator heterogeneity itself, which is the state this check exists to surface, not a failure. TypesMECIR C62 (Mandatory), 'comparisons' limb -- a synthesis pools one contrast. NOT cited to C7: C7 governs PREDEFINITION, and this check reads recorded comparator fields and tests them for consistency.
estimand_namedPASSoutcomes.estimand: all 6 outcome(s) name a quantityMECIR C8 'Clarifying role of outcomes' (Mandatory, READ 2026-08-19); MECIR C62 (Mandatory), 'outcomes' limb
criteria_statedPASSpresent: screening.eligibility carries 1518 charactersMECIR R29 'Eligibility criteria for types of participants', R30 '...types of interventions', R31 'Role of outcomes' -- ALL Mandatory REPORTING standards (READ 2026-08-19). Their verb is STATE. A block
criteria_predefinedNOT-ASSESSABLEcannot assess: the object records neither an eligibility provenance block nor a statement about its protocolMECIR C5 'Predefining unambiguous criteria for participants' AND C7 '...for interventions and comparators', BOTH Mandatory (READ 2026-08-19): 'Predefined, unambiguous eligibility criteria are a fundam
eligibility_metNOT-ASSESSABLEcannot assess: criteria are stated and sources are present, but no full text was READ this pass. This precondition never infers from the auditability check.MECIR C5/C7 (Mandatory) with C6 'Predefining a strategy for studies with a subset of eligible participants' (Highly desirable, READ 2026-08-19) -- eligibility is assessed against the full report
contributes_a_randomised_contrastPASSinputs.trials.arms: all 5 readable trial(s) contribute one topic-vs-control randomised contrastHandbook 6.5 s23.3.4 'How to include multiple groups from one study' (READ 2026-08-19) and s23.3.6 'Factorial trials'; MECIR C7 'Predefining unambiguous criteria for interventions and comparators' (Ma

This page is stamped to the standard version above. If the standard rises, this page is below it and knowably so. No page is grandfathered; arni-hfref is presently unstamped and is therefore unknown-version, not compliant.

Every number on this page is projected from a single canonical object, and each measured cell names the source analysis it was read from. That is what is machine-checked. It does not establish that the underlying sources are right, only that this page faithfully reports them.

What is being estimated

OutcomePooled asWhich isTrials
hfh_cvd_recurrentRATE_RATIOan unrecognised measure2
hfh_cvd_firstHRtime to event2
hfh_recurrentRATE_RATIOan unrecognised measure2
acmHRtime to event2
hierarchical_primaryWIN_RATIOan unrecognised measure1
six_min_walk_24wMDa continuous measure1

The registry records an analysis of time to event for 1 of the contributing trials.

The pooled quantity and the trials' recorded analysis are of the same kind.

Both intervals, and which one this page reports

OutcomekPooledRandom-effects WaldModified Hartung–KnappWider by
hfh_cvd_recurrent2-0.215-0.377 to -0.053-1.268 to 0.8386.48×
hfh_cvd_first20.7960.686 to 0.9230.303 to 2.0876.48×
hfh_recurrent2-0.268-0.453 to -0.084-1.462 to 0.9256.48×
acm20.9780.752 to 1.2710.178 to 5.3586.48×

At two trials this page reports neither interval as the answer, and says why. With k = 2 the modified interval uses t on ONE degree of freedom — a multiplier of 12.71 against 1.96 — because two trials carry almost no information about how much results vary between trials. The resulting interval is wide by construction and would be nearly as wide whatever the trials had found, so it should not be read as evidence that the treatment does not work: that width is the degrees of freedom, not the data. The Wald interval has the opposite fault — it treats a between-trial variance estimated from two numbers as if it were known, and is too narrow for the same reason. Both are printed above so a reader can see the size of the gap rather than inherit whichever one an author preferred.

The modification is the floor at q* = 1. Unmodified, Hartung–Knapp can return a narrower interval than Wald whenever Q < k−1 — which would let the estimator that carries more uncertainty appear more confident. Flooring it means extra care can never buy a tighter answer.

For hfh_cvd_recurrent: 2 trials, τ² = 0.0000, q* = 1.00 (at the floor — without it the more careful estimator would have returned a narrower interval than the Wald one). The t multiplier on 1 degrees of freedom is 12.71 against 1.96 for the normal, so the modified interval is 6.48× wider on the analysis scale.

For hfh_cvd_first: 2 trials, τ² = 0.0000, q* = 1.00 (at the floor — without it the more careful estimator would have returned a narrower interval than the Wald one). The t multiplier on 1 degrees of freedom is 12.71 against 1.96 for the normal, so the modified interval is 6.48× wider on the analysis scale.

For hfh_recurrent: 2 trials, τ² = 0.0000, q* = 1.00 (at the floor — without it the more careful estimator would have returned a narrower interval than the Wald one). The t multiplier on 1 degrees of freedom is 12.71 against 1.96 for the normal, so the modified interval is 6.48× wider on the analysis scale.

For acm: 2 trials, τ² = 0.0000, q* = 1.00 (at the floor — without it the more careful estimator would have returned a narrower interval than the Wald one). The t multiplier on 1 degrees of freedom is 12.71 against 1.96 for the normal, so the modified interval is 6.48× wider on the analysis scale.

hierarchical_primary — not computed. Precision could be established for 1 of 1 contributing trials, and two are needed before an interval means anything.

six_min_walk_24w — not computed. Precision could be established for 1 of 1 contributing trials, and two are needed before an interval means anything.

What has changed since these trials were last synthesised

No comparator is designated for this question, so this page does not state how current it is relative to one. Which published review answers the same question is a judgement, and this component refuses to make it by taking whichever identifier appears first — doing exactly that produced a search date from an adherence review of observational studies on an earlier run. The object mentions PMIDs 37074386, 40159279, 37062867; none is marked as the comparator.

What the pooled effect means in people

hfh_cvd_recurrent — not converted. The pooled measure is recorded as RATE_RATIO, which this component cannot place on a risk scale. An unrecognised measure is refused, not assumed to be a risk ratio.

hfh_cvd_first — not converted. The pooled quantity is HR, and a hazard ratio is a ratio of rates over person-time; converting it needs a baseline RATE and a stated horizon, and this object holds neither. It is refused rather than approximated.

hfh_recurrent — not converted. The pooled measure is recorded as RATE_RATIO, which this component cannot place on a risk scale. An unrecognised measure is refused, not assumed to be a risk ratio.

acm — not converted. The pooled quantity is HR, and a hazard ratio is a ratio of rates over person-time; converting it needs a baseline RATE and a stated horizon, and this object holds neither. It is refused rather than approximated.

hierarchical_primary — not converted. The pooled measure is recorded as absent, which this component cannot place on a risk scale. An unrecognised measure is refused, not assumed to be a risk ratio.

six_min_walk_24w — not converted. The pooled measure is recorded as absent, which this component cannot place on a risk scale. An unrecognised measure is refused, not assumed to be a risk ratio.

Safety, and every other outcome these trials reported

This object records no outcome besides the one pooled above. That is a statement about what has been extracted into this review, not about what the trials measured: a trial that reported harms this review has not extracted will look, from this page, exactly like a trial that reported none.

Which counts were used, and what difference it makes

This object records event counts from one source per trial and no alternative was sought, so this page cannot tell you whether the registry and the publication agree. ⚠️ That is not the same as saying they do. A registry posts counts as submitted and a publication reports them after endpoint adjudication; where those differ, the adjudicated figure is the trial's own final answer, and a review that never compared them cannot say which it is using.

What quantity this is, and what the trials actually analysed

This object does not record what quantity the contributing trials analysed, so this page cannot say whether the quantity it pools is theirs. ⚠️ That is an unchecked assumption, not a clean bill: a risk ratio over binary counts and a hazard ratio over person-time are different quantities, and a review that pools the first while the trials analysed the second will differ from them whenever follow-up differs between arms.

What a clinician or a programme should take from this

Each statement above is emitted only when a specific condition holds in this review's own object; none is written by hand. This section makes no recommendation: what to offer, to whom, at what cost and against what alternative is a judgement this page does not hold the inputs for.

What this page cannot tell a clinician, and why. magnitude — no absolute effect for hfh_cvd_recurrent (refused: the measure is unrecognised (RATE_RATIO)). magnitude — no absolute effect for hfh_cvd_first (refused: the measure is HR, not a risk ratio). magnitude — no absolute effect for hfh_recurrent (refused: the measure is unrecognised (RATE_RATIO)). magnitude — no absolute effect for acm (refused: the measure is HR, not a risk ratio). direction — no pooled estimate with an interval for hierarchical_primary. direction — no pooled estimate with an interval for six_min_walk_24w. where it holds — no stratum reads as demonstrated. where it has not been shown — no stratum reads as not demonstrated. harms — no harm outcome is held at the trial-report tier. protects against nothing else — no other sexually transmitted infection outcome is recorded. what it is not — no outcome is recorded as absent or not measurable. what it is conditional on — the object records no background care delivered alongside the intervention, so this page cannot say what its estimate is on top of. efficacy versus use — the object records no adherence finding.

Audit trail

WhatValueRead fromSentence it was read fromFingerprint
Our AFFIRM-AHF recurrent-composite input against the registry's POSTED RESULT—no source recordedAnnualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.79, CI 0.62-1.01—
Our AFFIRM-AHF time-to-first input against the registry's POSTED RESULT—no source recordedHazard Ratio (HR) = 0.80, CI 0.66-0.98—
Our recurrent-composite pool against a published meta-analysis of THE SAME TWO TRIALS—no source recordedFCM/FDI reduced the primary endpoint (RR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.95, p = 0.01, I2 = 0%)—
Our two remaining AFFIRM-AHF inputs against the registry's POSTED RESULTS—no source recordedAnnualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.74, CI 0.58-0.94; Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.99, CI 0.75-1.31—
Our two-trial pool against the six-trial individual-participant-data analysis—no source recordedlower rates for the composite endpoint of recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality ... for the complete length of follow-up (RR = 0.81 (95% CI = 0.63-0.97))—
The registry posts TWO analyses per AFFIRM-AHF outcome; which one is here—no source recordedAnnualised event rate ratio (RR) = 0.75, CI 0.59-0.96 -- the second analysis posted on the same outcome—
Whether CONFIRM-HF's 0.89 is established as a HAZARD ratio, or only assumed to be one—no source recordedEnd-point or event | ... | Time to first event hazard ratio | 95% CI | P-value—
Whether any located synthesis pooled trials that count different things—no source recordedDefinitions of outcomes and subgroups from the FAIR-HF, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN.—
Whether the matching two-trial meta-analysis pooled the main or the COVID-19 analyses—no source recordedutilizing prespecified COVID-19 analyses—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[0]0.75https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/IV iron reduced the composite of recurrent HHF or cardiovascular death (RR 0.75 [0.61–0.93], p  < 0.01)—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[1]0.72https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/the primary composite occurred in 429 (24%) patients randomized to IV iron and 503 (31%) randomized to the control group (OR 0.72 [0.53–0.99], p  = 0.04)—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[2]0.67https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/Recurrent HHF overall (RR 0.67 [0.47–0.97], p  = 0.03)—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[3]0.93https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/all‐cause death overall (OR 0.93 [0.78–1.12], p  = 0.47)—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[4]0.86https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632415/Ferric carboxymaltose was associated with a significantly reduced risk of co-primary endpoint 1 (rate ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.75-0.98; P = .029—
reconciliation/published_benchmarks[5]0.87https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632415/with a trend towards a reduction of co-primary endpoint 2 (rate ratio 0.87; 95% confidence interval 0.75-1.01; P = .076—
Dhoot 2020—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
EFFECT-HF—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28701470/——
FAIR-HF—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19920054/——
FERRIC-HF 2008—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
IRON-CRT 2021—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
Oral iron protein succinylate—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03344523——
PRACTICE-ASIA-HF 2018—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
Toblli 2007—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
claims_corrected[0]—OA_CONFIRMHF2015——
claims_corrected[1]—OA_FAIRHF2_2025——
claims_corrected[2]—SEARCH_RECORD——
claims_corrected[3]—FDA_LABEL_INJECTAFER——
eligible_but_not_contributing/studies[0]—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07467668——
eligible_but_not_contributing/studies[1]—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06929806——
eligible_but_not_contributing/studies[2]—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05759078——
eligible_but_not_contributing/studies[3]—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07686692——
extraction—ClinicalTrials.gov, five registrations——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/acm—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02937454——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/acm/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/acm/provenance—REG_CTGOV——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first/provenance—OA_AFFIRM2020——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent/provenance—OA_AFFIRM2020——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[0]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent/provenance—OA_AFFIRM2020——
inputs/trials[0]/rows_considered_not_pooled[0]0.8https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[0]/rows_considered_not_pooled[1]0.96https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[0]/rows_considered_not_pooled[2]0.67https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33197395/——
inputs/trials[1]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36347265/——
inputs/trials[1]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[1]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_recurrent/provenance—OA_IRONMAN2022——
inputs/trials[1]/rows_considered_not_pooled[0]0.76https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36347265/——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40159390/——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_cvd_first/provenance—OA_FAIRHF2_2025——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40159390/——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[2]/by_outcome/hfh_recurrent/provenance—OA_FAIRHF2_2025——
inputs/trials[2]/rows_considered_not_pooled[0]0.79https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40159390/——
inputs/trials[3]/by_outcome/hierarchical_primary—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37632463/——
inputs/trials[3]/by_outcome/hierarchical_primary/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[3]/by_outcome/hierarchical_primary/provenance—OA_HEARTFID2023——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/acm—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/acm/outcome_definition_source—publication——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/acm/provenance—OA_CONFIRMHF2015_FULLTEXT——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/six_min_walk_24w—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/six_min_walk_24w/cascade/divergences[0]—https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2025/203565s027lbl.pdf——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/six_min_walk_24w/outcome_definition_source—registry——
inputs/trials[4]/by_outcome/six_min_walk_24w/provenance—OA_CONFIRMHF2015——
inputs/trials[4]/rows_considered_not_pooled[0]0.3https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
inputs/trials[4]/rows_considered_not_pooled[1]0.39https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
inputs/trials[4]/rows_considered_not_pooled[2]0.53https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
inputs/trials[4]/rows_considered_not_pooled[3]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25176939/——
manuscript/references/included_studies[0]—ClinicalTrials.gov——
manuscript/references/included_studies[1]—ClinicalTrials.gov——
manuscript/references/included_studies[2]—ClinicalTrials.gov——
manuscript/references/included_studies[3]—ClinicalTrials.gov——
manuscript/references/included_studies[4]—ClinicalTrials.gov——
screening/excluded[0]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19920054/——
screening/excluded[1]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28701470/——
screening/excluded[2]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
screening/excluded[3]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
screening/excluded[4]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
screening/excluded[5]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
screening/excluded[6]—https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36823953/——
screening/excluded[7]—https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03344523——
trial_identity_check—ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 armsInterventionsModule——

The denominator. 86 records in this object carry a source. 15 of 86 carry the sentence they were read from, and 0 of 86 carry a document fingerprint. ⚠️ A fingerprint says the bytes we read are the bytes we say we read; it does not say the document contained what we claim. What makes a row checkable is the sentence, so rows carrying one are listed first and the rest are visible as the gap they are.

Retrieval routes are recorded per document and a document is marked unreachable only after every route has been tried and named — so a missing document on this page is a record of what was attempted, not a blank.

How certain this is, and why — the certainty profile

GRADE

hfh_cvd_recurrent — k = 2

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

DomainReadingLevelsReason
risk of biasno downgrade—Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): NO_INFORMATION=1, SOME_CONCERNS=1. NOT ONE reaches LOW -- D5 cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and D1 cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 1 have at least one domain at NO INFORMATION. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.
inconsistencyno downgrade—I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW I-SQUARED DOES NOT SHOW THE TRIALS MEASURE THE SAME THING (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.
indirectnessno downgrade—The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.
imprecisionno downgrade—k = 2. The interval (0.6856 to 0.9488) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.
publication biasno downgrade—k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is UNDETECTED rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication_bias +0

hfh_cvd_first — k = 2

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

DomainReadingLevelsReason
risk of biasno downgrade—Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): NO_INFORMATION=2. NOT ONE reaches LOW -- D5 cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and D1 cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at NO INFORMATION. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.
inconsistencyno downgrade—I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW I-SQUARED DOES NOT SHOW THE TRIALS MEASURE THE SAME THING (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.
indirectnessno downgrade—The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.
imprecisionno downgrade—k = 2. The interval (0.6857 to 0.9233) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.
publication biasno downgrade—k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is UNDETECTED rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication_bias +0

hfh_recurrent — k = 2

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

DomainReadingLevelsReason
risk of biasno downgrade—Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): NO_INFORMATION=2. NOT ONE reaches LOW -- D5 cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and D1 cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at NO INFORMATION. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.
inconsistencyno downgrade—I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW I-SQUARED DOES NOT SHOW THE TRIALS MEASURE THE SAME THING (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.
indirectnessno downgrade—The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.
imprecisionno downgrade—k = 2. The interval (0.636 to 0.9191) does not cross the null, but at k = 2 tau-squared is estimated from almost no information and a random-effects interval is optimistic even when it looks tight. Rated down for a small contributing set rather than reporting the number as if it were robust.
publication biasno downgrade—k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is UNDETECTED rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication_bias +0

acm — k = 2

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

DomainReadingLevelsReason
risk of biasno downgrade—Result-level RoB 2 over 2 contributing result(s): NO_INFORMATION=2. NOT ONE reaches LOW -- D5 cannot, because no trial's statistical analysis plan is held, and D1 cannot, because allocation concealment is in neither the registration nor this object. 2 have at least one domain at NO INFORMATION. This is a limit on what we can reach, not a finding against the trials.
inconsistencyno downgrade—I-squared 0% over k = 2: not rated down. A LOW I-SQUARED DOES NOT SHOW THE TRIALS MEASURE THE SAME THING (P36, measured in both directions in one night); coherence is established by reading the definitions, which is done under indirectness.
indirectnessno downgrade—The contributing results share one endpoint definition, verified by reading each trial's registered text rather than by comparing names.
imprecisionno downgrade—The 95% interval (0.7523 to 1.271) crosses the no-difference value, so the evidence is compatible with benefit and with harm. Rated down, not argued away.
publication biasno downgrade—k = 2. A funnel plot and Egger's test have no power below k = 10, so publication bias is UNDETECTED rather than ABSENT. Not rated down, and not reported as clean: an unreachable state is not a passing one.

risk_of_bias -1 inconsistency +0 indirectness +0 imprecision -1 publication_bias +0

hierarchical_primary

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

No domain assessment is recorded for this outcome, so the rating above rests on nothing this page can show you.

six_min_walk_24w

No rating is shown. the object does not record a starting certainty, so the certainty cannot be derived from its own steps and a stored value would be an assertion rather than a result.

No domain assessment is recorded for this outcome, so the rating above rests on nothing this page can show you.

What was checked before this page was published

These are the specific errors that would otherwise be in the numbers above. Each class was derived from a real defect found by auditing this corpus, and each carries the defect that generated it.

Checked against 11 instrumented defect classes. 2 flagged on this build.

ClassWhat it catchesThe defect that generated it
single-trial-shown-as-pooledone trial's result presented as a poolthe front page carried a single trial's HR 0.85 (0.79-0.92) as a two-trial pool
statistic-rendered-twiceone statistic with two values on one pagethe same number rendered from two code paths
unanchored-external-authorityan outside body's position asserted with nothing retrievable behind it'WHO has recommended the ring' went live from a conversation, and dropped the conditionality WHO actually attached -- WHO, iris handle 10665/340190, 17 March 2021: the ring 'may be offered ... (Conditional recommendation; moderate-certainty evidence)'
unfilled-template-tokena placeholder shipped unsubstituted11 pages cited protocols/name_protocol_v1.0.md -- 'name' was the placeholder
bare-none-rendereda Python None reaching rendered output1110 dashboards rendered as 626-byte stubs from `None` in a JS literal
markup-imbalanceunbalanced tags after a hand editdiv-balance drift after HTML edits, repeatedly
estimand-unnameda pooled quantity presented without naming what it estimatesbinary counts pooled where both trials analysed time to event
hksj-unqualifieda small-k interval reported without naming the variance floorraw HKSJ narrows below Wald when Q < k-1; the q* floor was missing
ratio-on-natural-scalea ratio measure said to be on the natural scalesglt2-hf rendered 'on the natural scale' for a hazard ratio
denial-of-something-heldthe page denies what the corpus holds92 pages stated no protocol exists while a protocol sat in the repository
untraceable-numbera number with no sourcestored estimates that do not follow from their own counts: 172 of 178 uncheckable

Flagged on this build:

6 classes we know about and cannot yet detect

Named because a taxonomy that lists only what it catches is marketing.