CT.gov Risk-Adjusted Hiddenness
2026-03-29 | full-registry ct.gov audit | plots, figures, and e156 bundle
Series
Adjusted Hiddenness Project

What remains hidden after study-mix adjustment?

A standalone public project on study-mix-adjusted hiddenness, showing that No-US portfolios and heterogeneous OTHER sponsors still remain worse than expected even after visible design differences are accounted for.

No US +16.7k
OTHER +3.7k
OTHER_GOV +17.1 pts
Industry ghost +3.1k

Project

This page tests whether the backlog is just a mix problem. It asks what still looks worse than expected after the visible registry profile of each study is held more constant.

Adjustment narrows some raw gaps, but No-US portfolios and OTHER_GOV still remain much worse than expected.

Project readout

A standalone E156 project on which sponsor classes, geographies, and large sponsors remain worse than expected after adjusting for visible study mix.

No-US excess
16,659
Adjusted no-results stock
OTHER excess
3,652
Sponsor-class excess stock
OTHER_GOV excess
17.1 pts
Excess rate points
Model AUC
0.775
Holdout no-results model
Adjusted sponsor-class excess
ADJUSTED NO-RESULTS STOCKExcess missing-results counts by sponsor class after study-mix adjustmentOTHER3,652OTHER_GOV783NETWORK223INDIV-11NIH-456FED-870INDUSTRY-3,314
OTHER remains worst on adjusted stock, while OTHER_GOV is the sharpest rate outlier and industry drops below expected no-results volume.
That is why the adjusted project reads count and residual direction together.
Read Across Projects

Across The Series

The split projects are meant to be read together because each isolates a different dimension of registry opacity rather than forcing every question into one leaderboard.

Industry
CT.gov Industry Disclosure Gap

Industry-focused missing-results stock, sponsor backlogs, and structural sparsity inside CT.gov.

Sponsor Classes
CT.gov Sponsor-Class Hiddenness

Sponsor-class comparisons on rate, stock, and structural hiddenness rather than one flattened ranking.

Phases
CT.gov Phase Reporting Gap

Phase-by-phase disclosure gaps showing how silence changes along the development pathway.

Structural
CT.gov Structural Missingness

Field-level missingness across publication links, IPD statements, descriptions, and locations.

Visibility
CT.gov Evidence Visibility Gap

Results-plus-publication visibility states showing how many older trials are fully visible, partly visible, or ghosted.

Cohorts
CT.gov Completion Cohort Debt

Completion-era reporting debt showing how older eligible cohorts drift on no-results and ghost-protocol rates.

Conditions
CT.gov Condition Hiddenness Map

Keyword-classified therapeutic-area hiddenness mapping across common condition families.

Concentration
CT.gov Sponsor Backlog Concentration

Concentration and inequality analysis showing how much unresolved stock sits inside a thin sponsor slice.

Rule Eras
CT.gov Rule-Era Reporting Gap

Policy-era comparisons across pre-FDAAA, FDAAA, and later CT.gov completion cohorts.

PubMed Audit
CT.gov Publication Undercount Audit

Sample-based external PubMed NCT audit testing how often CT.gov no-link records hide an external paper trail.

Oncology
CT.gov Oncology Hiddenness

Oncology-specific CT.gov hiddenness showing where cancer-trial stock, phases, and sponsors still go quiet.

Cardiovascular
CT.gov Cardiovascular Hiddenness

Cardiovascular CT.gov hiddenness showing how heart and vascular studies remain quiet across major phases and sponsors.

Metabolic
CT.gov Metabolic Hiddenness

Metabolic CT.gov hiddenness across obesity, diabetes, and related trial portfolios with large late-phase and NA stock.

Size
CT.gov Enrollment-Size Gap

Enrollment-size gradients showing how older small trials remain much quieter than larger registered studies.

Geography
CT.gov Geography-Scale Visibility

Site and country footprint analysis showing how larger trial geographies map onto much better public visibility.

Purpose
CT.gov Design-Purpose Hiddenness

Primary-purpose and allocation analysis showing which trial intents remain most obscured on CT.gov.

Delay
CT.gov Completion-Delay Debt

Registration-to-completion delay analysis showing short-cycle studies carry the heaviest reporting debt.

Architecture
CT.gov Trial-Architecture Gap

Arm-count and intervention-count analysis showing simpler trial architectures are often the quietest.

Interventions
CT.gov Intervention-Type Gap

Intervention-family analysis showing which declared treatment modalities remain quietest on older CT.gov records.

Countries
CT.gov Country Reporting Map

Named-country visibility analysis showing large geographic divides in older CT.gov reporting debt.

Stopped
CT.gov Stopped-Trial Disclosure Gap

Final-status analysis showing how withdrawn, suspended, and terminated studies remain structurally quieter than completed trials.

Outcomes
CT.gov Outcome-Density Gap

Outcome-count and outcome-description analysis showing sparse protocols are often the quietest CT.gov segment.

Actual Fields
CT.gov Actual-Field Discipline

Closed-study actual-field analysis showing missing actual dates and counts are a strong warning sign for opacity.

US vs Global
CT.gov U.S. Versus Global Gap

Geography-bucket analysis showing how U.S.-only, mixed, and non-U.S. portfolios diverge sharply on visibility.

Modality Sponsors
CT.gov Modality Sponsor Repeaters

Intervention-family sponsor audit showing that repeat offenders change sharply once modality is held fixed.

Country x Condition
CT.gov Country-Condition Hiddenness

Country-by-condition splits showing how disease-specific visibility changes once specific national footprints are named.

Disease Geography
CT.gov Disease Geography Gap

Disease-family geography buckets showing how oncology, cardiovascular, and metabolic studies diverge by U.S. participation.

Condition Sponsors
CT.gov Condition Sponsor Repeaters

Condition-family sponsor audit showing who carries the biggest hiddenness stock within oncology, cardiovascular, and metabolic studies.

Country Sponsors
CT.gov Country Sponsor Repeaters

Country-linked sponsor audit showing how leading repeaters differ across U.S., China, Egypt, Poland, Australia, and Japan study footprints.

US vs Ex-US
CT.gov U.S. Versus Ex-U.S. Sponsor Classes

U.S.-presence sponsor-class analysis showing how any-U.S. and no-U.S. portfolios diverge sharply on hiddenness.

Industry Families
CT.gov Industry Family Repeaters

Industry-by-intervention audit showing that repeat-offender sponsors change sharply once modality and geography are held fixed.

Clock
CT.gov Overdue Results Clock

Time-since-due analysis showing how unresolved CT.gov results debt ages across cohorts, phases, and sponsor classes.

Index Gap
CT.gov Publication Index Gap

Sample-based exact-ID audit showing how much no-link CT.gov silence is an indexing and linkage gap rather than a PubMed-only miss.

ACT Debt
CT.gov Probable ACT/FDAAA Debt

U.S.-nexus proxy layers showing how large, old, and distributed the likely regulated backlog still is.