CT.gov Publication Undercount Audit
2026-03-29 | full-registry ct.gov audit | plots, figures, and e156 bundle
Series
PubMed Audit

Are CT.gov missing publication links mostly just under-linking?

A standalone public audit testing how often older CT.gov no-link records can still be rescued by external PubMed NCT searches.

1,050 sampled
1.2% weighted match
0.3% external-only
Industry 2.0%

Project

This project does not assume that every missing CT.gov publication link means no paper exists. It tests that claim directly with a sponsor-class-stratified external audit.

On a strict PubMed NCT audit, external publication rescue is rare.

PubMed underlink audit

A standalone E156 project auditing how often CT.gov no-link records still show a PubMed NCT paper trail.

Sample size
1,050
Stratified no-link audit
Weighted match
1.2%
PubMed NCT match
Weighted external only
0.3%
PubMed match with no results
Industry sample
2.0%
Raw sample match
Sample PubMed match rate
PUBMED AUDITSample PubMed NCT-match rate by sponsor classNETWORK3.3%OTHER_GOV2.0%INDUSTRY2.0%NIH2.0%FED1.3%OTHER0.7%INDIV0.0%
Raw sample match rates stay low across sponsor classes, even before reweighting.
The sample audit deliberately uses strict NCT-based PubMed matching, so the bars are a conservative external-rescue estimate rather than a broad publication search.
Read Across Projects

Across The Series

The split projects are meant to be read together because each isolates a different dimension of registry opacity rather than forcing every question into one leaderboard.

Industry
CT.gov Industry Disclosure Gap

Industry-focused missing-results stock, sponsor backlogs, and structural sparsity inside CT.gov.

Sponsor Classes
CT.gov Sponsor-Class Hiddenness

Sponsor-class comparisons on rate, stock, and structural hiddenness rather than one flattened ranking.

Phases
CT.gov Phase Reporting Gap

Phase-by-phase disclosure gaps showing how silence changes along the development pathway.

Structural
CT.gov Structural Missingness

Field-level missingness across publication links, IPD statements, descriptions, and locations.

Visibility
CT.gov Evidence Visibility Gap

Results-plus-publication visibility states showing how many older trials are fully visible, partly visible, or ghosted.

Cohorts
CT.gov Completion Cohort Debt

Completion-era reporting debt showing how older eligible cohorts drift on no-results and ghost-protocol rates.

Conditions
CT.gov Condition Hiddenness Map

Keyword-classified therapeutic-area hiddenness mapping across common condition families.

Concentration
CT.gov Sponsor Backlog Concentration

Concentration and inequality analysis showing how much unresolved stock sits inside a thin sponsor slice.

Rule Eras
CT.gov Rule-Era Reporting Gap

Policy-era comparisons across pre-FDAAA, FDAAA, and later CT.gov completion cohorts.

Oncology
CT.gov Oncology Hiddenness

Oncology-specific CT.gov hiddenness showing where cancer-trial stock, phases, and sponsors still go quiet.

Cardiovascular
CT.gov Cardiovascular Hiddenness

Cardiovascular CT.gov hiddenness showing how heart and vascular studies remain quiet across major phases and sponsors.

Metabolic
CT.gov Metabolic Hiddenness

Metabolic CT.gov hiddenness across obesity, diabetes, and related trial portfolios with large late-phase and NA stock.