CT.gov Probable ACT/FDAAA Debt
2026-03-29 | full-registry ct.gov audit | plots, figures, and e156 bundle
Series
Probable ACT Debt Project

How large is the probable U.S.-nexus reporting debt?

A standalone public project on probable ACT-style debt, showing that tighter U.S.-nexus filters lower the raw CT.gov no-results rate but still leave a large, old, and institutionally distributed reporting backlog.

Strict 58.6k
Strict 31.5%
Pre-FDAAA 87.0%
Debt 10.92y

Project

This page narrows the registry to increasingly strict U.S.-nexus proxy layers. The rate falls, but the remaining debt stays large enough and old enough to matter.

Filtering to the likely regulated core cuts the rate sharply, but it does not erase the backlog or its age.

Project readout

A standalone E156 project on how large, old, and distributed the likely U.S.-nexus regulated backlog still is once older CT.gov studies are filtered through conservative proxy layers.

Strict studies
58,598
Older proxy-core studies
Strict no-results
18,475
Missing-results stock
Strict rate
31.5%
No-results rate
Strict debt
10.92y
Mean overdue beyond 2-year mark
Proxy-layer no-results rates
PROXY LAYERS2-year no-results rate across conservative U.S.-nexus proxy layersBroad US nexus46.5%Drug/Bio non-phase130.4%Strict US D/B/D31.5%
The raw rate drops substantially once the registry is filtered toward likely regulated cores.
But the remaining stock is still large enough that the debt question does not disappear.
Read Across Projects

Across The Series

The split projects are meant to be read together because each isolates a different dimension of registry opacity rather than forcing every question into one leaderboard.

Industry
CT.gov Industry Disclosure Gap

Industry-focused missing-results stock, sponsor backlogs, and structural sparsity inside CT.gov.

Sponsor Classes
CT.gov Sponsor-Class Hiddenness

Sponsor-class comparisons on rate, stock, and structural hiddenness rather than one flattened ranking.

Phases
CT.gov Phase Reporting Gap

Phase-by-phase disclosure gaps showing how silence changes along the development pathway.

Structural
CT.gov Structural Missingness

Field-level missingness across publication links, IPD statements, descriptions, and locations.

Visibility
CT.gov Evidence Visibility Gap

Results-plus-publication visibility states showing how many older trials are fully visible, partly visible, or ghosted.

Cohorts
CT.gov Completion Cohort Debt

Completion-era reporting debt showing how older eligible cohorts drift on no-results and ghost-protocol rates.

Conditions
CT.gov Condition Hiddenness Map

Keyword-classified therapeutic-area hiddenness mapping across common condition families.

Concentration
CT.gov Sponsor Backlog Concentration

Concentration and inequality analysis showing how much unresolved stock sits inside a thin sponsor slice.

Rule Eras
CT.gov Rule-Era Reporting Gap

Policy-era comparisons across pre-FDAAA, FDAAA, and later CT.gov completion cohorts.

PubMed Audit
CT.gov Publication Undercount Audit

Sample-based external PubMed NCT audit testing how often CT.gov no-link records hide an external paper trail.

Oncology
CT.gov Oncology Hiddenness

Oncology-specific CT.gov hiddenness showing where cancer-trial stock, phases, and sponsors still go quiet.

Cardiovascular
CT.gov Cardiovascular Hiddenness

Cardiovascular CT.gov hiddenness showing how heart and vascular studies remain quiet across major phases and sponsors.

Metabolic
CT.gov Metabolic Hiddenness

Metabolic CT.gov hiddenness across obesity, diabetes, and related trial portfolios with large late-phase and NA stock.

Size
CT.gov Enrollment-Size Gap

Enrollment-size gradients showing how older small trials remain much quieter than larger registered studies.

Geography
CT.gov Geography-Scale Visibility

Site and country footprint analysis showing how larger trial geographies map onto much better public visibility.

Purpose
CT.gov Design-Purpose Hiddenness

Primary-purpose and allocation analysis showing which trial intents remain most obscured on CT.gov.

Delay
CT.gov Completion-Delay Debt

Registration-to-completion delay analysis showing short-cycle studies carry the heaviest reporting debt.

Architecture
CT.gov Trial-Architecture Gap

Arm-count and intervention-count analysis showing simpler trial architectures are often the quietest.

Interventions
CT.gov Intervention-Type Gap

Intervention-family analysis showing which declared treatment modalities remain quietest on older CT.gov records.

Countries
CT.gov Country Reporting Map

Named-country visibility analysis showing large geographic divides in older CT.gov reporting debt.

Stopped
CT.gov Stopped-Trial Disclosure Gap

Final-status analysis showing how withdrawn, suspended, and terminated studies remain structurally quieter than completed trials.

Outcomes
CT.gov Outcome-Density Gap

Outcome-count and outcome-description analysis showing sparse protocols are often the quietest CT.gov segment.

Actual Fields
CT.gov Actual-Field Discipline

Closed-study actual-field analysis showing missing actual dates and counts are a strong warning sign for opacity.

US vs Global
CT.gov U.S. Versus Global Gap

Geography-bucket analysis showing how U.S.-only, mixed, and non-U.S. portfolios diverge sharply on visibility.

Modality Sponsors
CT.gov Modality Sponsor Repeaters

Intervention-family sponsor audit showing that repeat offenders change sharply once modality is held fixed.

Country x Condition
CT.gov Country-Condition Hiddenness

Country-by-condition splits showing how disease-specific visibility changes once specific national footprints are named.

Disease Geography
CT.gov Disease Geography Gap

Disease-family geography buckets showing how oncology, cardiovascular, and metabolic studies diverge by U.S. participation.

Condition Sponsors
CT.gov Condition Sponsor Repeaters

Condition-family sponsor audit showing who carries the biggest hiddenness stock within oncology, cardiovascular, and metabolic studies.

Country Sponsors
CT.gov Country Sponsor Repeaters

Country-linked sponsor audit showing how leading repeaters differ across U.S., China, Egypt, Poland, Australia, and Japan study footprints.

US vs Ex-US
CT.gov U.S. Versus Ex-U.S. Sponsor Classes

U.S.-presence sponsor-class analysis showing how any-U.S. and no-U.S. portfolios diverge sharply on hiddenness.

Industry Families
CT.gov Industry Family Repeaters

Industry-by-intervention audit showing that repeat-offender sponsors change sharply once modality and geography are held fixed.

Adjusted
CT.gov Risk-Adjusted Hiddenness

Study-mix-adjusted hiddenness showing which sponsor classes, geographies, and sponsors remain worse than expected.

Clock
CT.gov Overdue Results Clock

Time-since-due analysis showing how unresolved CT.gov results debt ages across cohorts, phases, and sponsor classes.

Index Gap
CT.gov Publication Index Gap

Sample-based exact-ID audit showing how much no-link CT.gov silence is an indexing and linkage gap rather than a PubMed-only miss.