E156 Micro-Paper · Africa Clinical Trials

Heart Failure in Africa

Africa carries 10% of global heart failure burden but hosts 2% of trials.

Africa HF Trials
167
US HF Trials
2,499
Disparity
15x
Africa Burden
10%
Africa hosted 167 heart failure trials versus 2,499 in the United States, a 15x disparity despite carrying approximately ten percent of global burden.
Heart Failure Trials by RegionUnited States2499Europe2527China436Africa167
3.0% 167/5,629 Africa's Heart Failure Share
Heart Failure Trials by Region Africa167Europe2,527US2,499China436
Africa Equity Radar HFCVHTNBlindingCompletedGrowth
Heart FailureAF:167 US:2,499Cardiovasc.AF:1,426 US:19,566HypertensionAF:497 US:3,770 Africa vs US (log scale) US trials → Africa →
Double Blind (% of total trials) Africa 10.3% (2,453) US 11.2% (21,421) Gap: 9x
200520102015202020256781,4882,5386,93511,599 Africa Growth (Heart Failure: 167 total)
Inequality Profile by Dimension 0.89Volume0.94Heart 0.90Double0.05Complete0.86Geograph
Heart Failure — Computed Statistics
Africa: 167 | US: 2,499 | Europe: 2,527 | Ratio: 15.0x
Africa share: 3.2% | HHI4-region = 0.476 | Shannon H = 1.47 bits
Double Blind: AF 2,453 vs US 21,421 (8.7x gap)
Ginicountry = 0.857 [0.61, 0.90] | αpower-law = 1.40 | Atkinson A(2) = 0.979
KL(obs||uniform) = 2.93 bits | ρSpearman(pop, trials/M) = −0.01
Why It Matters

Africa hosts 167 heart failure trials compared to 2,499 in the United States — a 15-fold disparity. SGLT2 inhibitor and device trials are virtually absent despite the continent carrying ten percent of the global burden. African heart failure is dominated by younger patients with rheumatic, peripartum, and endomyocardial disease — phenotypes almost entirely absent from Western trial evidence. Therapies developed for elderly ischaemic populations are extrapolated to Africa without confirmation.

In global cardiology, does the distribution of heart failure trials reflect the distinct burden carried by Africa? This audit queried ClinicalTrials.gov for heart failure trials across Africa (167), the United States (2,499), and Europe (2,527) through March 2026. Investigators reported the inter-continental volume ratio as the primary estimand for research equity in cardiovascular medicine. Africa hosted 167 heart failure trials versus 2,499 in the United States, a 15x disparity despite carrying approximately ten percent of global burden. SGLT2 inhibitor and device trials were near-absent in Africa, while peripartum cardiomyopathy had only 4 trials despite Nigeria having the highest global incidence. These findings expose a fundamental evidence gap where therapies validated in elderly ischaemic populations are extrapolated to younger African patients without confirmation. Interpretation is limited by reliance on one public registry which may undercount locally funded cardiovascular studies.
Question

In global cardiology, does the distribution of heart failure trials reflect the distinct burden carried by Africa?

Dataset

This audit queried ClinicalTrials.gov for heart failure trials across Africa (167), the United States (2,499), and Europe (2,527) through March 2026.

Method

Investigators reported the inter-continental volume ratio as the primary estimand for research equity in cardiovascular medicine.

Primary Result

Africa hosted 167 heart failure trials versus 2,499 in the United States, a 15x disparity despite carrying approximately ten percent of global burden.

Robustness

SGLT2 inhibitor and device trials were near-absent in Africa, while peripartum cardiomyopathy had only 4 trials despite Nigeria having the highest global incidence.

Interpretation

These findings expose a fundamental evidence gap where therapies validated in elderly ischaemic populations are extrapolated to younger African patients without confirmation.

Boundary

Interpretation is limited by reliance on one public registry which may undercount locally funded cardiovascular studies.