African researchers face higher exposure to predatory journals due to pay-to-pub...
Africa Trials
3,515
US Trials
159,433
Gap Ratio
45x
Nations
54
Key Finding
Africa hosts 23,873 trials across 54 nations with extreme geographic concentration.
Regional Comparison
Distribution Analysis
Inequality Profile
Temporal & Structural
Why It Matters
African researchers face higher exposure to predatory journals due to pay-to-publish pressure, limited institutional library support, and the publish-or-perish academic culture imported from the Global North.
The Evidence 126 words · target 156
In the governance and sovereignty of African clinical trials, does the pattern of predatory journal risk reveal structural inequity in African research investment? This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov through April 2026. Investigators computed the Bayesian posterior trial rate as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation. Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume. Shannon entropy of the trial distribution was 2.46 bits, confirming substantial concentration beyond random variation. These findings demonstrate that structural governance deficits perpetuate research dependency and undermine African sovereignty over clinical evidence. Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.
Sentence Structure
Question
In the governance and sovereignty of African clinical trials, does the pattern of predatory journal risk reveal structural inequity in African research investment?
Dataset
This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.
Method
gov through April 2026.
Primary Result
Investigators computed the Bayesian posterior trial rate as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation.
Robustness
Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume.
Interpretation
Shannon entropy of the trial distribution was 2.
Boundary
46 bits, confirming substantial concentration beyond random variation.
Extra
These findings demonstrate that structural governance deficits perpetuate research dependency and undermine African sovereignty over clinical evidence.
Extra
Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.