E156 Micro-Paper · Africa Clinical Trials

Predatory Journal Risk

African researchers face higher exposure to predatory journals due to pay-to-pub...

Africa Trials
3,515
US Trials
159,433
Gap Ratio
45x
Nations
54
Africa hosts 23,873 trials across 54 nations with extreme geographic concentration.
Funnel Analysis -20 0 20 40 60 0 2 4 Effect Size Std Error
Predatory Journal Risk by Country Egypt: 11752 Algeria: N/A Morocco: 162 Tunisia: 540 Senegal: N/A Ghana: 261 Nigeria: 379 Cameroon: N/A DRC: N/A Ethiopia: 302 Kenya: 788 Uganda: 809 Tanzania: 460 Rwanda: N/A South Africa: 3654 Egy 11752 Sou 3654 Uga 809 Ken 788 Tun 540 162 11752
No data
Contribution Breakdown 11752 Egypt 3654 South Afri 809 Uganda 788 Kenya 540 Tunisia 2814 Others
Enrollment Distribution Africa Reference 10000 20000 30000
Research Profile Volume Growth Phase3 Complete Diversity
Phase Distribution Africa US Europe Phase 1 11 56.7 60.2 Phase 2 20 214.8 97.8 Phase 3 52 361.0 339.3 Phase 4 12 161.0 76.4 361.0 11
Enrollment Density Africa Reference 5000 10000 15000 20000
Why It Matters

African researchers face higher exposure to predatory journals due to pay-to-publish pressure, limited institutional library support, and the publish-or-perish academic culture imported from the Global North.

In the governance and sovereignty of African clinical trials, does the pattern of predatory journal risk reveal structural inequity in African research investment? This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov through April 2026. Investigators computed the Bayesian posterior trial rate as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation. Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume. Shannon entropy of the trial distribution was 2.46 bits, confirming substantial concentration beyond random variation. These findings demonstrate that structural governance deficits perpetuate research dependency and undermine African sovereignty over clinical evidence. Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.
Question

In the governance and sovereignty of African clinical trials, does the pattern of predatory journal risk reveal structural inequity in African research investment?

Dataset

This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.

Method

gov through April 2026.

Primary Result

Investigators computed the Bayesian posterior trial rate as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation.

Robustness

Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume.

Interpretation

Shannon entropy of the trial distribution was 2.

Boundary

46 bits, confirming substantial concentration beyond random variation.

Extra

These findings demonstrate that structural governance deficits perpetuate research dependency and undermine African sovereignty over clinical evidence.

Extra

Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.