E156 Micro-Paper · Africa Clinical Trials

Conflict Zone Trial Collapse

Armed conflict destroys research infrastructure, displaces trained staff, and ma...

Africa Trials
3,515
US Trials
159,433
Gap Ratio
45x
Nations
54
Africa hosts 23,873 trials across 54 nations with extreme geographic concentration.
Conflict Zone Trial Collapse by Country Egypt: N/A Algeria: N/A Morocco: N/A Tunisia: N/A Senegal: N/A Ghana: N/A Nigeria: 379 Cameroon: N/A DRC: N/A Ethiopia: 302 Kenya: N/A Uganda: N/A Tanzania: N/A Rwanda: N/A South Africa: N/A Nig 379 Eth 302 6 379
No data
Contribution Breakdown 379 Nigeria 302 Ethiopia 215 Burkina Fa 183 Mali 147 Mozambique 141 Others
Regional Comparison Africa US Europe 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
Enrollment Distribution Africa Reference 10000 20000 30000
Funnel Analysis -20 -10 0 10 20 0 2 4 Effect Size Std Error
No data
Research Profile Volume Growth Phase3 Complete Diversity
Why It Matters

Armed conflict destroys research infrastructure, displaces trained staff, and makes participant follow-up impossible. Trial collapse in conflict zones creates evidence deserts precisely where health needs are greatest.

In the spatial mapping of African clinical research, does the pattern of conflict zone trial collapse reveal structural inequity in African research investment? This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov through April 2026. Investigators computed the interrupted time-series slope change as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation. Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume. Temporal analysis showed 17.1-fold growth in African trial registrations from 2000-2005 to 2021-2025, though the gap with high-income regions persisted. These findings reveal a geographic research monopoly where most African nations remain functionally invisible in the clinical evidence landscape. Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.
Question

In the spatial mapping of African clinical research, does the pattern of conflict zone trial collapse reveal structural inequity in African research investment?

Dataset

This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.

Method

gov through April 2026.

Primary Result

Investigators computed the interrupted time-series slope change as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation.

Robustness

Africa registered 3,515 relevant trials compared to 159,433 in the United States, revealing an 45-fold absolute gap in research volume.

Interpretation

Temporal analysis showed 17.

Boundary

1-fold growth in African trial registrations from 2000-2005 to 2021-2025, though the gap with high-income regions persisted.

Extra

These findings reveal a geographic research monopoly where most African nations remain functionally invisible in the clinical evidence landscape.

Extra

Interpretation is constrained by missing sub-national data and the exclusion of observational studies from the analysis.