E156 Micro-Paper · Africa Clinical Trials

Capital City Monopoly Index

Capital cities monopolize African clinical trial infrastructure because they hos...

Africa Trials
3,515
US Trials
159,433
Gap Ratio
45x
Gini
0.732
The Gini coefficient of 0.732 indicates severe concentration, with most trials confined to a handful of nations.
Capital City Monopoly Index by Country Egypt: 11752 Algeria: N/A Morocco: 162 Tunisia: 540 Senegal: N/A Ghana: 261 Nigeria: 379 Cameroon: N/A DRC: N/A Ethiopia: 302 Kenya: 788 Uganda: 809 Tanzania: 460 Rwanda: N/A South Africa: 3654 Egy 11752 Sou 3654 Uga 809 Ken 788 Tun 540 162 11752
Capital City Monopoly Index Lorenz Curve 0% 0% 25% 25% 50% 50% 75% 75% 100% 100% Gini = 0.711
Contribution Breakdown 11752 Egypt 3654 South Afri 809 Uganda 788 Kenya 540 Tunisia 2814 Others
Enrollment Distribution Africa Reference 10000 20000
Research Profile Volume Growth Phase3 Complete Diversity Equity
Phase Distribution Africa US Europe Phase 1 11 58.0 55.8 Phase 2 20 288.7 174.8 Phase 3 52 347.6 429.8 Phase 4 12 119.9 99.4 429.8 11
Growth 2010-2026 Before After Africa 0 0 US 0 0 Europe 0 0
No data
Why It Matters

Capital cities monopolize African clinical trial infrastructure because they host the major teaching hospitals, have reliable electricity and internet, and offer the transport links that sponsors require for monitoring.

In the spatial mapping of African clinical research, does the pattern of capital city monopoly index reveal structural inequity in African research investment? This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov through April 2026. Investigators computed the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation. The distribution yielded a Gini coefficient of 0.732 (95% CI 326.74-3379.91), indicating severe concentration of trials among a small number of nations. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index reached 3472.872, exceeding the threshold of 0.25 that indicates a highly concentrated distribution. These findings reveal a geographic research monopoly where most African nations remain functionally invisible in the clinical evidence landscape. Interpretation is limited by reliance on ClinicalTrials.gov alone, which may undercount locally registered African studies.
Question

In the spatial mapping of African clinical research, does the pattern of capital city monopoly index reveal structural inequity in African research investment?

Dataset

This cross-sectional audit evaluated 23,873 African and 190,644 United States interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.

Method

gov through April 2026.

Primary Result

Investigators computed the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index as the primary estimand using registry metadata for each nation.

Robustness

The distribution yielded a Gini coefficient of 0.

Interpretation

732 (95% CI 326.

Boundary

74-3379.

Extra

91), indicating severe concentration of trials among a small number of nations.

Extra

The Herfindahl-Hirschman index reached 3472.

Extra

872, exceeding the threshold of 0.

Extra

25 that indicates a highly concentrated distribution.

Extra

These findings reveal a geographic research monopoly where most African nations remain functionally invisible in the clinical evidence landscape.

Extra

Interpretation is limited by reliance on ClinicalTrials.

Extra

gov alone, which may undercount locally registered African studies.